As usual, let us start with a few words regarding our forecast for the previous week. And so:
- for the EUR/USD pair we envisaged two possible scenarios, one of which, supported by 52% of analysts and 82% of indicators, came true – the pair broke through strong support at the level of 1.1000, reached the zone of 1.0800 and, rebounding, on Friday returned to where it started – the level of 1.1000, which has now changed from support to resistance;
- there was total discord regarding the GBP/USD pair among both analysts and indicators last week. Yet this pair also behaved really decisively and immediately broke through the strongest support at the level of 1.5500, and, practically stepwise, ran to the floor below – the next support in the zone of 1.5300;
- the forecast regarding the future of the USD/JPY pair was fulfilled and even exceeded expectations. We predicted the growth of the pair to the 122.00 mark, while the pair even managed to rise above the level of 124.00, reaching the maximum of July 2007;
- as for USD/CHF, it is fairly simple lately to predict the behaviour of this pair – strong mirrored correlation with EUR/USD. Something similar happened last week – we predicted the growth of the pair to the very strong resistance of 0.9500 followed by a rebound downwards, which is what it obediently did.
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Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- for the EUR/USD pair the majority of experts (↑ - 69%, → - 12%, ↓ - 19%) predict a steady growth. The technical indicators on the H4 timeframe also agree with them. Yet on D1 they vote for the opposite – for movement downwards. Furthermore, systems of graphical analysis clearly draw a rebound downwards from the strong level of resistance 1.1000 at least to the support of last week, which is found in the zone of 1.0800. Precisely this unfolding of events is perceived as most likely;
- regarding the future of the GBP/USD pair the analysts and the indicators have entered a uncompromising struggle: the former – in their majority are for the growth of the pair (↑ - 61%, → - 15%, ↓- 24%), the latter – for its fall (↑ - 17%, → - 8%, ↓- 75%). Considering that last week the pair tricked expectations and instead of rebound from the support of 1.5500, it broke through it, we can expect that this time it will be held back for at least a week in the corridor of 1.5250÷1.5500. We think that on Monday-Tuesday it will already be clear whether the pair will take a timeout or continue its fall downwards to 1.5000;
- for the USD/JPY pair both experts (↑ - 57%, → - 14%, ↓- 29%) and indicators (↑ - 78%, → - 18%, ↓- 4%) foretell further growth to the next symbolic peak of 126.00, the last time the pair was there was “not too long” ago – some 15 years ago. This historical storm may turn out to be not at all easy, and the pair will keep on organising attack after attack, pushing off from support in the zone of 123.20÷123.60;
- for the USD/CHF, yet again there is nothing original – inverse correlation with EUR/USD and no independent escapades. The most probable scenario is a rebound from 0.9400 to 0.9540. Alternatively – a fall to 0.9280.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
