Brexit will have to break through. GBP is going down.

Brexit will have to break through. GBP is going down.

22 марта 2017, 15:31
Aleksei Kotlovanov

This week or later Theresa May will have to officially inform about the Brexit, but the real tough talks are about to start. Now neither of the parties want the agreement, and that means there will be none. Probably UK will break away without any bipartite agreement what seems to be the best decision in a long term run. But is short term run GBP is going to meet with high volatility and some believe it may reach parity with EUR or even USD. March is going to end up with the official statement of Theresa May. After that official talks will start and most probably there will be no agreement. And here are the reasons.

UK is OK 

Everyone was sure that after Brexit poll the UK will have a shock of economy. But after the GBP fall Bank of England takes proper steps and economy demonstrates a surprising stability. It is stable growing, retail sales are tough and outbound investments keep on arriving. So why UK would fight for the access to united market of EU, if as it seems there is no difference if they have it or not. 

EU is very fast-moving.

This year in EU will be a lot of elections in parliaments of Netherlands, Germany and maybe Italy, presidential in France, etc. Nobody knows who to hold a parley with. 

The financial terms are unacceptable. 

EU is asking for 60 billion EUR or even more, and also assumes that the payments will continue for years, because UK supported a lot of EU projects and has to disburse them. UK will probably not agree with this term.

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