Forex Weekly AUD - NZD - CAD

Forex Weekly AUD - NZD - CAD

3 abril 2017, 04:12
Anderson Braga
0
164

AUD, NZD, CAD

Data Review

Australia

  • HIA New Home Sales 0.2% vs. -2.2% Prior
  • CNY Manufacturing PMI 51.8 vs. 51.7 Expected
  • CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.1 vs. 54.2 Prior

New Zealand

  • Building Permits 14% vs. 2.1% Expected
  • NBNZ Business Confidence 11.3 vs. 16.6 Prior

Canada

  • Industrial Product Price 0.1% vs. 0.3% Expected
  • GDP 0.6% vs. 0.3% Expected

Data Preview

Australia

  • AiG PMI Manufacturing, Retail Sales and Building Approvals- Potential for downside surprise given retail sales likely to be weaker given drop in PSI. PMI is hard to predict
  • Caixin PMI Manufacturing- Chinese data is hard to predict but can be market moving
  • Trade Balance- Potential for upside surprise given exports rising strongly in Feb
  • RBA Cash Rate Target – We do not trade rate decisions but RBA could be more cautious
  • PMI Services- Will update after PMI manufacturing

New Zealand

  • No Data

Canada

  • International Merchandise Trade- Potential for downside surprise given that IVEY dropped in Feb
  • Employment Report- Likely to be weaker given strong rise in full time work in Feb
  • IVEY PMI- Potential for upside surprise given Possible strength given higher trade & retail sales

Key Levels

  • Support AUD .7600 NZD .6900 CAD 1.3200
  • Resistance AUD .7700 NZD .7100 CAD 1.3400

Meanwhile there was very little consistency in the performance of the commodity currencies this past week. The Australian dollar ended the week unchanged (though it performed well in the first quarter), the New Zealand dollar weakened and the Canadian dollar strengthened. AUD was supported by stronger Chinese data while faster growth in Canada and higher oil prices lifted the loonie. CAD GDP growth accelerated to 0.6% in the month of January, driving year over year growth to 2.3% from 2.1%. AUD and CAD remain in play with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy announcement and Canadian employment plus trade data scheduled for release this week. Business activity appears to have slowed a bit in Australia since the last monetary policy meeting but we’ll get more clarity with the release of retail sales and PMIs. Iron ore prices have also fallen which means the Reserve Bank has less to be optimistic about in the month of April. If they shrug off these reports and remain positive, AUD will continue to outperform. However if they finally admit that the outlook may not be so bright, AUD/USD could come off its highs. CAD employment was very strong in February and is likely to retreat a bit in March. There are no major economic reports scheduled for release from New Zealand and no explanation for the underperformance of NZD versus other currencies over the past week outside of possibility of month/quarter end flows.


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