Mohammed Abdulwadud Soubra / Profile

THE OUTCOME OF THE G20, CENTRAL BANKS BACK IN ACTION AND US EMPLOYMENT WILL KICK OFF MARCH

February was supposed to be a quiet month. As quiet as you can get in the forex market but with most major central banks taking the month off and the Chinese New Year holiday the expectation was for a less hectic month after an eventful start of the year. It turned out this February was the most volatile in six years for currencies according to data from Bloomberg. While the various holidays did slow the market along with less active central banks, there were other events that more than made up for it raising volatility.

The drop in oil prices at the beginning of the year had commodity-exporting nations scrambling with no end in sight to the oversupply that is far outstripping a lower global energy demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia after an on-again-off-again period seemed to have reached a tentative agreement, which will be discussed in the middle of March. The freeze of oil output has turned around the price of oil and most analysts are forecasting price stability. Volatility concerns remain given the mercurial nature of the producers involved in the deal and their own goals that could jeopardize a final agreement.

The tumble of oil prices, the slowdown in emerging markets and monetary policy are the main topics of the G20 meeting in Shanghai. This week will bring to life those factors as China releases its PMI data on Monday, February 29 at 8:00 pm EST, later that same day the Reserve Bank of Australia will issue its rate statement at 10:30 pm EST. The Australian benchmark rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.00%. Employment data out of the U.S. will begin rolling out on Wednesday, March 2 at 8:15 am when the ADP Payrolls are published. The week will close with the biggest indicator in the currency market the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) due on Friday, March 4 at 8:30 am EST.

Published post NZD/USD Drops as Weak Data Inspires RBNZ Rate Cut Bets

Crude Oil (WTI) (J6) Intraday: bullish bias above 31.40.

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Pivot: 31.40

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 31.40 with targets @ 33.80 & 35.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 31.40 look for further downside with 30.50 & 29.80 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Gold spot Intraday: supported by a rising trend line.

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Pivot: 1221.00

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1221.00 with targets @ 1243.00 & 1254.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1221.00 look for further downside with 1207.00 & 1200.00 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

AUD/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

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Pivot: 0.7210

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 0.7210 with targets @ 0.7255 & 0.7275 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 0.7210 look for further downside with 0.7190 & 0.7160 as targets.

Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum

USD/JPY Intraday: the bias remains bullish.

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Pivot: 112.50

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 112.50 with targets @ 113.20 & 113.60 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 112.50 look for further downside with 111.95 & 111.30 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is well directed.

GBP/USD Intraday: the upside prevails.

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Pivot: 1.3950

Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.3950 with targets @ 1.4050 & 1.4120 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 1.3950 look for further downside with 1.3900 & 1.3875 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is well directed.

EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure.

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Pivot: 1.1070

Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1070 with targets @ 1.0990 & 1.0955 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 1.1070 look for further upside with 1.1100 & 1.1140 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.