Pair trading and multicurrency arbitrage. The showdown. - page 311

 
mvf358 #:
It can only open when fully extended, after which it must snap shut.

How can you tell when the spread has reached its maximum value? Based on historical data?
But there’s no guarantee that historical values won’t be exceeded – and by a wide margin.

I suppose you’d have to lose more than one real deposit to realise that.

 
Alexander Sevastyanov #:

How can you tell when the spread has reached its maximum value? Based on historical data?
But there’s no guarantee that historical values won’t be broken – and by a wide margin.

I suppose you’d have to lose more than one real deposit to realise that.

To understand this, all you need to do is follow my advice: collect equity statistics for your synthetic trades. Every synthetic trade has its own volatility limit. And that’s the limit we use as our benchmark. And if you don’t collect equity statistics, you could keep losing money forever, believing you’ve caught your best trend. As I understand it, the word ‘equity’ is unfamiliar to everyone here. Everyone likes following the trend: it’s simple and straightforward, but it’s never profitable. There are no guarantees anywhere. But it’s better to trust your equity than some random trend. Your equity should move like this – or even better.
 
Alexander Sevastyanov #:

How can you tell when the spread has reached its maximum value? Based on historical data?
But there’s no guarantee that historical values won’t be broken – and by a wide margin.

I suppose you’d have to lose more than one real deposit to realise that.

If you keep losing money, you’ll never understand this. You need to trade profitably at least once in your life and understand why you made a profit — whether it was by chance or as a result of a pattern. When trading using technical analysis, you end up losing money consistently, whilst a profit is


— a fluke.

 
mvf358 #:
To understand this, all you need to do is follow my advice: track the equity statistics of your synthetic trades. Every synthetic trade has its own volatility limit. And that’s the limit we use as our starting point. And if you don’t track equity statistics, you could keep losing money forever, believing you’ve caught your best trend. As I understand it, the word ‘equity’ is unfamiliar to everyone here. Everyone likes following trends: it’s simple and straightforward, but it’s never profitable. There are no guarantees anywhere. But it’s better to trust your equity than some random trend. Your equity should move like this – or even better.

Statistics are collected in science, engineering, medicine… wherever they’re absolutely essential.

Here, however, with an automated trading platform and a historical database of quotes spanning many years, collecting statistics does nothing to enhance the author’s reputation, as essentially everything has already been gathered for us and before us. )))
That said, if one’s horizons are limited solely to trends and equity, then compiling statistics makes sense. But to do that, you’d need to have a few lives to spare. )))

 
Alexander Sevastyanov #:

Statistics are collected in science, technology, medicine … wherever they are absolutely essential.

Here, however, given the availability of an automated trading platform and a historical database of quotes spanning many years, collecting statistics does little to enhance the author’s reputation.
Mind you, if one’s horizons are limited solely to trends and equity, then compiling statistics makes perfect sense. But to do that, you’d need to have a few lives to spare. )))

It took just 10 minutes to provide you with equity statistics covering 25 years of history, presented in two interpretations of the very same synthetic portfolio with the same volume. To avoid blowing your bankroll in the first scenario, you’d need a deposit of $10,000, and in the second, $200,000. If you rely on just one theory, it’s not just a matter of needing several lives – you’d never get to the bottom of it, even by the end of the world.
 

There are no signals today – we’re out for a walk for now

 
Vitaly Muzichenko #:

No signals today – we’re out for a walk for now

How come there’s no signal even at 50 PP?
 
Sergey2134 #:

All in all, this is the picture that emerges. We see what appears to be a spread, so we enter the trade. However, this entry does not yield a profit when the indicators converge.

This is because there is no common Y-axis. Each instrument has its own price scale . And simply superimposing the two charts on top of each other does not mean we have identified an arbitrage opportunity.

That’s the verdict, in a nutshell!

In other words, the maths is completely wrong

Throw out whatever you’ve gathered, read up on it yourself, do it yourself, or commission a freelancer (a mandatory condition for paying the expert you commission is a positive track record spanning several years! Don’t forget to include this in the terms of reference)

Yes, even on MA machines, the paired version works fine

Never use anything that’s been posted without being tested in a tester for at least five years!!!! // Otherwise, people here start spouting slogans as if it were the Holy Grail the moment they’re in the black for a week ;))))
 
Renat Akhtyamov #:

Never use anything that hasn’t been tested in a tester for at least five years!!!!

Well, I don’t think Vitaly has created a bad system. He started developing it nine years ago. He simply has his own original ideas; in this thread, we’re discussing whether anything can be improved.

 
Sergey2134 #:

Well, I don’t think Vitaly created a bad system. He started developing it nine years ago. It’s just that he has his own original ideas, and in this thread we’re discussing whether anything can be improved.

I’ve just updated all the files on the blog. Interaction between all indicators has been added, the trading panel has been updated, and auto-refresh and manual refresh options have been added for the i-Spr_Signal table

Clicking on the panel background refreshes the table and all indicators


Minor bugs and slowdowns have been fixed; as requested, the option to add pairs not on the list and display the result has been added – for example, Gold/Audi

Here’s how it looks on my chart:


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Whilst I was writing and updating this, I closed the trade for a profit