Random wandering - page 16
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Here, a man on the subject. All this talk about efficient markets is good for RBC analysts on Why We Screwed Up the Forecast.
He has no idea what he's talking about, can't you see? If he first saw a tick chart and ticks - one and the same thing, he has guessed in his next post that ticks have not fixed step, now he goes to google on top and learns about different forms of distributions. Apparently his methods work on the SB like they do on the price chart - in no way, that is why the man does not make the difference where to put them - the result is the same. And there is a difference, and a huge one.
Here, a man on the subject. All this talk about efficient markets is good for the analysts on RBC: Why we screwed up the forecast.
Here's the thing. There is an assumption that a good system does not care what the chart is, EURUSD, BTCUSD, Temp or SB, the confusion here arises because many people think you need to predict and guess something, and you need to make money.
This is not the case. The system may not care in the sense that it will work on any series, but predictions will hit the target only where they are possible in principle and where there is at least some dependence of future values on past ones. To make money, you need to open trades in the right direction (i.e. where the price will go in the future). Thinking in a moment that the direction is right is predicting, and you cannot avoid it when you are dealing with uncertain future. For reliable forecasting you need to know some regularities of the process, but in SB there are no regularities by definition, so there cannot be forecasting, but only an imitation or illusion of it.
This is not the case. The system may not care in the sense that it will calculate on any series, but the forecasts will hit the target only where they are possible in principle, where there is at least some dependence of future values on past ones. To make money, you need to open trades in the right direction (i.e. where the price will go in the future). Thinking in a moment that the direction is right is predicting, and you cannot avoid it when you are dealing with uncertain future. For reliable forecasting one should know some regularities of the process, but in SB there are no regularities by definition, so there cannot be forecasting, but only imitation or illusion of it.
I'm not talking about creating a grail. Suppose the nettler will show a stable profit within a certain period of time using both SB and real quotes. Of course there's no question about forecasts. It is just to think about forecasting and its necessity in trading.
I'm not talking about creating a grail, let's say the setter will show a stable profit over a certain period, either on the SB or on real quotes. Of course we are not talking about forecasts there. It's just an idea to think about forecasting and its necessity in trading.
What a revelation! ...on some period. Yes - SB moves up and down.
What a revelation! ...at some point. Yes - SB moves up and down.
Aha, the thought by the way, you can develop, prove or disprove with an experiment, the possibility of making money on SB, you can only if you have a grail, but here's the rubbish:
a) No one has the grail.
b) Who has it, keeps his mouth shut.
I'm not talking about creating a grail, let's say the setter will show a stable profit over a certain period, either on the SB or on real quotes. Of course we are not talking about forecasts there. It's just the way to think about forecasting and its necessity in trading.
And I'm not saying there is no grail and cannot be, only a statistical advantage. About the gridiron it is possible, on some plots it will be so, but it is not a systematic result, but a random one, which cannot be repeated and therefore no money should be bet on it. If the goal is not to make money, but simply to trade (for some reason, you know, as a hobby, for fun just to open trades in the market), then of course it does not matter what the method, what the series.
And I'm not saying, there is no grail at all and can't be, only a statistical advantage. About the gridiron, you can allow that, in some areas it will be, but it is not a systematic, but a random result that cannot be repeated and on which, therefore, you cannot bet money. If your purpose is not to make money, but simply to trade (for some reason, as a hobby, to simply open transactions in the market), then of course it does not matter what the method is, what the series is.
For example, we have a mega-mesh trader that shows ~300% a month on history and once a month it returns to the margin. It's quite a working system with competent money management that brings a stable profit.
He has no idea what he is talking about, can't you see? First, the SB chart and ticks are one and the same thing, then in the next post he has understood that ticks do not have a fixed step, and now he will google on the tops and learn about different forms of distributions. Apparently his methods work on the SB like they do on the price chart - in no way, that is why the man does not make the difference where to put them - the result is the same. But there is a difference and it is huge.
Why do you have to distort what you are saying so crudely? )))
I said " The SB chart and the chart of the financial instrument are not very different "#149
The SB chart and the tick chart - will not be similar if the step of SB will alternate between extremely large and incredibly small.
A step close to a fixed one will bring the similarity of the charts closer.
But a fixed step is exactly the same as the behaviour of a coin. Some comrades here don't even know what they're talking about.
Idon't need to google such simple questions, even though I am neither a physicist nor a mathematician. Even schoolchildren can understand such questions.) And this is the first time the big guys have got a topic.
Okay, I'm out of here. I'll leave you to it.
The statistics can also be used to make money, let's say we have a mega-network showing ~300% per month on the history and once a month it is also losing to a margin call. It is quite a working system with competent money management that brings a stable profit.
On what principles does this conditional mega-network maker work? If by some sensible, here it is - a forecast that you do not need, but it is there and it works. If by the owl on the globe, then the netminder's profits will be random and unrepeatable, money management in such a case is simply self-defeating.