Random wandering - page 58

 
Aleksei Stepanenko #:

So it's... it's simple. Playing +50% and -40% is in itself unprofitable. After all, we add interest at the bottom and withdraw it at the top, including from what we earn.

$100 + 50% = $150, so we have earned $50.

$150 - 40% = $90, so we have lost $60


or in reverse order:

100$ - 40% = 60$

60$ + 50% = 90$

One way or another it will be like this. By flipping a coin for a long time, such a system will drain money.


Breakeven will be at a percentage of +50 and -33.3333

Well, here then lies a small optimization, only work needed not +50 -40% on the transaction, and say +5 and -4, the calculation of the lot is conducted only from the positive balance increase, ie for example: the initial 10000 - 1 lot, +5% - 1.05 lots, -4% - still 1.05. The total margin is roughly 20 losing trades in a row, which is highly unlikely according to the specified profitability distribution...

And on the average on a large number of trades +10%...