The miracle of the grail... Myth or reality?! - page 10
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It's not the Grail!
The important thing is to know when to exit the market, not when to enter it, that's the Grail!
I think that's a very good point of view. Without any unnecessary words and very concretely.
It's not the Grail!
It's important to know when to exit the market, not when to enter it, that's the Grail!
In fact, entry and exit are two independent but VERY IMPORTANT algorithms, and combining them MUST be in ONE strategy... They may partially overlap, but not always...
The right exit cannot fix a stupid entry into a position.
Perhaps it's all very much in the eye of the beholder. Without further ado and very specific.
I would combine the approaches of knowing how to enter Buy or Sel and when to exit...it's a super grail
In fact, input and output are two independent but VERY IMPORTANT algorithms, and combining them MUST be in ONE strategy... They may partially overlap, but not always...
A correct exit cannot correct a blunt entry into a position.
Oddly enough - but they can.
I've said more than once - if we have a symbol that is trending within a month (say, 2014, the eurodollar), or at least just tends to trends - then we set TP in the daily range, and SL - one third of the daily range, throw the coin, and enter where it points, after closing the position - again enter, again on the coin - and we win.
Or vice versa - if we have a rough flat - neither here nor there, for a month or more, or the symbol simply tends to flat - on the contrary, we set TP to a third of the daily range, and SL - to the daily range, and again enter on a coin - and we will again win. In this case there is the bomb bomb - "reverse trailing" (trailing TP). After entering - we do not set SL, we set TP, and with each bar we move TP to the current price. While it's flat - the highest price peaks will be taken.
Just from personal experience I got sure that support is more important part of TS than entries. That's why I have the dumbest entries of the three types in my TS League:
And these dumb entries work quite well, despite their simplicity.
Oddly enough, it can.
And these dumbest inputs work quite well, despite their simplicity.
If it really worked, the statistics would not be so dismal ( 5% -- 95% )...
In fact, input and output are two independent but VERY IMPORTANT algorithms, and combining them MUST be in ONE strategy... They may partially overlap, but not always...
The right exit cannot fix a stupid entry.
There are no stupid entries, if you trade on the system.
Since this is a market, we trade with probabilities, we are not saying that the asset will go up/down, we are saying that with a higher probability it may go.
In probability trading, the exit itself is important, and we already have an entry.
Stop out does not happen before entering the market, it comes only when you have left the market at the wrong time. That's why it's the exit itself that's important.
Here is my very good entry, all done according to the system, and a very successful exit, as the market did not want to grow, but the probability of growth was:
The stop was 9p, but if I got it wrong, I could either wait for a stop-out or wait for half a year. As of today I would have had a 50 points loss, if I had not exit in time, although I entered successfully and within the system.
If it really worked, the statistics would not be so dismal ( 5% -- 95% )...
That's why it is so depressing: we use flat trailing support on the trend, and vice versa!
Vaughn, let's take that "nice" flat support - reverse trailing ! So far the flat is just a bomb taking prices "peaks" all the time.
But if you take this support on a trend instrument - it is a guaranteed loss ! Suppose you take entries that are 99% correct in the direction of price movement (admit that it is a "Graal" entry). So, with our reverse trailing - in 99% of cases you will take profit, but because of flat accompaniment - just a little. And sooner or later that one "missed trend" will come. And you will lose all that you have earned. Because you'll move TP to the current price, and the price will "run away" from you (remember, we missed the trend).
No, the most wonderful entries will not save a market-inconsistent follow-up. But a good, market-appropriate follow-up saves even "on a dime" entries.
The "depressing statistics", on the other hand, shows that people often use escorts completely wrongly, and in the wrong place. For example, trailing is very popular among forum members. And my TS League shows that trailing works very badly. It's a great trend following, but in forex there are no trends at all for a long time. That's why trailing is no way to make much profit.
Oddly enough, it can.
I have repeatedly said - if our symbol is trending within a month (say, 2014, Eurodollar), or at least tends to trends - then set TP in the daily range, and SL - a third of the daily range, throw a coin, and enter where it points, after closing the position - again enter, again on the coin - and we will win.
Or vice versa - if we have a rough flat - neither here nor there, for a month or more, or the symbol simply tends to flat - on the contrary, we set TP to a third of the daily range, and SL - to the daily range, and again enter on a coin - and we will again win. In this case there is the bomb bomb - "reverse trailing" (trailing TP). After entering - we do not set SL, we set TP, and with each bar we move TP to the current price. While it's flat - the highest price peaks will be taken.
Just from personal experience I got sure that support is more important part of TS than entries. That's why I have the dumbest entries of the three types in my TS League:
And these dumbest entries work quite well, despite their simplicity.
I don't quite understand why to flip a coin if there is a trend ? Just enter the trend, preferably from a pullback...
I quite understand, why flip a coin when there is a trend ? Just enter the trend, preferably from a pullback...
Sometimes you can trade pullbacks and sometimes you can trade reversals. The trend has a way of reversing.)
This is the same deal as the previous one, also with the system, and the exit as in the previous case, only there was a minus for entry, and here the plus, but both deals are great
What's not so great about this system?
P.S. The stop was still the same ~7pI don't quite understand, why flip a coin if there is a trend ? Just enter the trend, preferably from a pullback...
The coin is thrown for "dumbness" of entries.
If we "just enter the trend" it is a "smart entry".
Our task, on the other hand, is to prioritise the importance - entry or follow-through. That's why we should compare "dumb" entries (not matching the price trend) and "dumb" follow-through (not matching the market). And in my experience, follow-through is always more important than entries.