The miracle of the grail... Myth or reality?! - page 5
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To make the grail you have to solve four problems:
1. Determine the direction of the trend.
2. Identify the entry point in the trend direction.
3) Avoid opening at the very end of the trend.
4. Exit the market on time.
The rest is a matter of technique. I have solved these tasks for myself. You may think about it.) If you do not solve at least one of these problems, the Grail will not work.
That is, you have already created the Holy Grail?
Globally, a trend can be defined
A trend can be defined and monitored not only as a global trend, but also as a local, compound trend,
as well as upward or downward, and as a set of actually constituent movements
a pullback, a pullback, a rise, a reversal, a reversal, etc. There would be a necessary effect of these definitions.
Globally, the trend can be identified
On history yes. Some timeframes longer than tick time can be determined when the train has already left.
There is no way of determining your points, even theoretically, let alone using a robot.
It's all fairy tales.
Come on. It's not easy, yes, but it's solvable. I've done it. I'll support Yuri. He suggested a good "framework" for an algorithm for writing a graphical MTS. I'll try to expand it a bit from my personal viewpoint.
Regarding the first point, I can even suggest a couple of ready-made, very good " out of the box" solutions. If you take an ordinary Yema slice, period 70-120, timeframe H1, any tool. If price is higher (suddenly), it's going upwards, if it's lower - downwards. Not the best, but the best way to start drawing MTS.
Well, or Rena's suggestion in a neighbouring thread, two dummies, period three and four. I liked it. He uses it on MN, I looked it up, works fine on any timeframe from minute to minute. (If it is no secret, I wanted to hear Yuri's recommendations on "what to measure the trend with", just to broaden my horizons).
I can do much better, I have a much more serious "device", but what I wrote above is an excellent basis for building quite a fine system. If you work well on the following "items".
But there is no need at this stage to "optimize" anything in particular, especially using such a slippery criterion as "profitability". There is no profit and even the deals are not there yet, it is too far from them. The criterion (target) at this stage is the best, universal definition of the current trend direction, without reference to deals/profits, etc. It is not too late, it is just right, even a usual fudge separates top from bottom. And in case of manual trading using magic eye there was never any problem at all.
If you want to determine the current trend better than the yema/mashka, you will have to sweat a lot.
I would advise to take the EMA, for example the 80th and close this issue for a long time, leaving the strength and time for the next points. How well you solve them will depend on the sustainability of the system, and not on the choice of how you calculate the swing or its period.
Eyeballs are good to see, but for MTS, you need "in numbers" This is the "criterion" for finding suitable indicators/methods. Maximum coincidence of what we see with what the software "measures" and "determines"
Second point: It is betterto enter from a pullback against the local movement, in the direction of the current trend as defined in the first point. This way the stop is shorter and the potential profit is larger. Therefore, the most important ratio for the system - profit/loss - is higher.
So, we need to look for the indicator/method that allows us to clearly identify the pullback within the current trend.
In other words, we should not just take an indicator, optimize it for some timeframe/instrument, see that the pullbacks are good and calm down. And then "the market changed" It's because the "indicators"/method grabbed the "form", a specific"realization" and a huge number of possible ones, but failed to "generalize".
It's unlikely to work that way. We should try to find a universal method, just likeEMA from the first itemalways and everywhere works correctly , so for the second "item" we need to find something that works as well. I can't suggest anything specific, I can only say that there is an excellent method for determining the pullback in the current trend that works anywhere and anytime. Info 100%, not a fairy tale. Search and find.
Third point.(As a solution option from me, this is what I use in my personal Grail, to determine the profit potential of a trade)
I've written before, but I'll say it again. Everything in nature seeks equilibrium, markets are no exception. The wind is caused by the difference in pressure. Pressure differences create disequilibrium. Any non-equilibrium system will seek equilibrium, as one respected person said, it is as inevitable as peeing.We need to find points to measure the difference in states. It looks like overbought/oversold, but not quite the same.
The distance of the price from the "zero point" defines the movement's "potential", in fact if it's "close", there's no sense to enter-the market is "uncharged", there is no money there. We should wait for the new "formation" .
It will be a kind of filter to the system. "There is a signal", but if the profit potential is "small", the price is close to zero point or already in it - the deal is skipped.
And the fourth point. Once you have gone through the three steps and marked the trades on the chart, you need to find the same beautiful solution for the exits. And voila, the Grail is in your pocket, in Metatrader. How do you find it? Do I know? You find the retracement point in the second point, you find the "tops". Mark the arrows to mark the ideal outputs for your entries and meditate on the chart.
Remember that "profitability " is not important, the most important is robustness, to make the method work always and everywhere, let the real "outputs" be a little or even much worse than the ideal ones, the main thing that you can reliably determine them in real time.
There is definitely a beautiful solution for this point as well. "Become a yogi" ©
A very important point in "system-building". Note that when building a system using the proposed algorithm, step by step we do not just shuffle indicators, trying to "measure" onthe market chart, without knowing what, if only "to get more profit".
And at each stage, we have different criteria for the selection (optimization) of indicators/methods. Measuring specific characteristics of the market, for the best solution of a particular subtask. If at each stage we manage to solve the subtask well by finding universal methods, the Grail will inevitably come out on its own.
Target -. not dumb "profitability " In the first stages, there is no talk of inputs, much less outputs at all. We are trying to understand the complex market movements as well as possible, separating flies from cutlets, bottoms from tops, rams from goats and bears from bulls. MTS, answers the question "What to do?"
But without understanding " what is going on", it is impossible to answer the question "what to do" correctly. So, we build the MTS in "steps ", and with each step we clarify the situation a little bit for us and for the program. Now the trend is downwards, and those bullish candles upwards are the pullback, etc. A good target is the accuracy of defining/division of dimensions, market phases, trend, pullback, "charged market", "uncharged market", etc.
And "profitability" First, you have to understand carefully how everything works in order to orientate in the market curve properly yourself and teach the program to do it.
Once you understand it, one can try to apply neuronetworks assigning them specific subtasks instead of sending them to an unfiltered clear diagram with the maximum profit as a target. Practice shows that they fail to grasp the "structure" and cling to the form. And everything crashes when the "form" has slightly changed (in this case they shrug their shoulders and sadly say, what can you do, it is unsteady).
The Grail cannot be synthesized in automatic mode. Entirely. But auxiliary tasks, in my opinion, should be perfectly solved by neural networks.
About stops, that's a separate long conversation. In short, a stop should be placed where the logic for entering a trade is cancelled, not a specific number in pips or even a percentage of daily volatility, ATR etc., it's all bullshit. All these ATR's, it's the average temperature in the hospital including the morgue, the price does not have to "stay within" the 1-2-3ATR's ,
If you enter a "pullback", in the direction of the trend, and a pullback is to a certain point a pullback, so the stop should be placed "slightly below" the point where the pullback is not a pullback, but a full-fledged trend in the other direction. It may continue, leading us into losses, may reverse and go back to our side, it is unknown, one cannot know the future. Well, no matter what happens next, within the logic of the built system, this new trend will probably not go our way. Therefore, we simply exit and look for a new entrance.
Understanding "where to put a stop" is essentially understanding the market.