An obvious way of predicting quotes for colleagues - page 6
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I predict relaxation with a sharp jerk. In an understandable direction.
What is a relaxation in financial markets? All the more so with a jerk.
It's a shame it's taking so long to unravel. It is uncommon for a long flat to go neither here nor there.
However, let's look at the current situation:
in terms of difference and ratio:
The divergence is now in terms of a 125 pips difference corresponding to the USD quote currency, i.e. the EURUSD-GBPUSD difference will rise by 125 pips of the fourth decimal place.
The trade not in terms of the difference, but in terms of the ratio, of course, contains an additional part in the form of a GBPUSD trade, but it is not particularly large, for clarity it is enough if I say that the EURGBP ratio will rise by at least 90 pips, corresponding to the GBP, i.e. from the current level of 0.8894 to the level of 0.8985.
What is relaxation in relation to the financial markets? All the more so with a jerk.
Market relaxation is the process of the market returning to a (unstable) equilibrium state.
In a jerk = quickly. We wait a week, but the relaxation will happen in a matter of minutes, very probably.
it's hard to say what the topicstarter sees in the EURUSD - GBPUSD difference apart from the EURGBP cross, well the 2 currency pairs are trading, when synchronously, when not, trading on each symbol is determined by the interest of the participants, then there is a correction from the Central Bank or intervention... i think it all still looks like imaginary games
I would also discuss from a mathematical point of view, what you can get for example from such a synthetic:
X/Y * Z/Y = (X*Z)/Y^2 = C
synthetic A = C- X/Y ( A = EURUSD*GBPUSD - EURSUD )
synthetic B = C - Z/Y ( B = EURUSD*GBPUSD - GBPUSD )
In theory, by manipulating random variables like this we have the product of random variables in numerator C and the square of a random variable in denominator - the "amplified value of a random variable", so to say
and if we could do it that way with correlation? ACF? ...meditation? relaxation? .... isolate significant fluctuations of the dollar, then we could decide in trading what to do with the dollar, buy or sell
I did a synthetic in MT5 using formulas A and B, at least some patterns emerged
EURGBP:
it is hard to say what the topstarter sees in the EURUSD - GBPUSD difference apart from the EURGBP cross
Consider the relative or absolute increments. And you will immediately understand everything. Namely, a deal on a volume of 1, say, buy EURGBP is not identical to the result of a pair of deals on a volume of 1 buy EURUSD and simultaneously sell GBPUSD. Namely, it differs from it by (1-EURGBP-at-the-time-open-deal)*GBPUSD.
I would also discuss from a mathematical point of view, what you can get from such a synthetic, for example:
nothing. And here's why:
...and if one were able to use correlation in this way? ACF? ...meditation? relaxation? .... highlight significant fluctuations in the dollar, then one could decide in trading what to do with the dollar buy or sell
I call it an "absolute exchange rate". Yes, that would be cool. If we could extract from EURUSD and GBPUSD (those two curves have three independent variables - euro, pound, dollar) how, say, the dollar changes in relation to itself in the past. Except that you can write equations looking at relative increments, it's all very symmetrical there, very nice ratios, but what's obvious from them is what's immediately obvious: you can't do that. You will always be missing one equation. The maximum you can do is build a pseudo-solution, with this or that norm.And so, yes, about the amplification: if you, for example, have picked up the understanding that EUR is rising and USD is falling, then clearly the probability that EURUSD will rise will be due not only to the numerator, but also the denominator, and will be higher.
I don't know, there are a lot of threads on the forum discussing beautiful graphs based on increments relative to previous values, relative to Erlang flows... a dime a dozen.
I'm kind of allergic to beautiful graphs based on increments... I think that this is the beauty of how to estimate these increments - we don't have a reference point, all we have is discrete time and, in my opinion, the increments relative to prices of previous bars always lead to time quantization, so we get dependences that don't exist