From theory to practice - page 1033

[CHINGIZ MUSTAFAEV]

Alexander_K:

I will wait until some fool publishes a formula for happiness and easy profits.

Waiting is also a business, no matter how you look at it.

If someone has figured it out, they are definitely not a fool.

[Aleksey Nikolayev]

Aleksey Ivanov:

Naturally. They open long positions on the uptrend of the economy, which they themselves spin entirely with the technology they control, and then (by simply creating a money supply deficit) cause a recession and depression by opening short positions beforehand. And economics professors are paid money to write lengthy treatises on the natural nature (and its "objective" driving mechanisms) of cyclical economic development with alternating ups and downs.

Your approach is quite understandable. It is psychologically convenient, but practically useless - any change in any market is beneficial to bankers. How can this knowledge be used?

Roughly speaking, those who "know" what and how the Rothschilds are doing with gold only use this "knowledge" mostly to write relevant texts, not to trade gold.

[Maxim Dmitrievsky]

Aleksey Nikolayev:

It is clear that any theory useful for speculation will eventually be overtaken by the market and become useless. But what if mathematicians come up with some theory that makes speculators completely unnecessary) They are now attracted to economics in every possible way - giving, for example, a Nobel Prize in this science.

Here is an interesting article about "stationarity" and "memory"

https://medium.com/pit-ai-technologies/non-stationarity-and-memory-in-financial-markets-4b8d1200667c

[Alexander_K]

Maxim Dmitrievsky:

Here is an interesting article on "stationarity" and "memory"

https://medium.com/pit-ai-technologies/non-stationarity-and-memory-in-financial-markets-4b8d1200667c

Thanks, Max! Very interesting - I'm sitting down to read it.

[Дмитрий]

Maxim Dmitrievsky:

Here is an interesting article on "stationarity" and "memory"

https://medium.com/pit-ai-technologies/non-stationarity-and-memory-in-financial-markets-4b8d1200667c

Bayan.

[Дмитрий]

Alexander_K:

Thank you, Max! It's very interesting - I'm sitting here reading it.

And you shouldn't read it at all - you, "physicist", don't care about non-stationarity

[Aleksey Nikolayev]

Maxim Dmitrievsky:

Here is an interesting article on "stationarity" and "memory"

https://medium.com/pit-ai-technologies/non-stationarity-and-memory-in-financial-markets-4b8d1200667c

So far I only understood that it is for series described by regression models. This is a rather narrow class of processes. As SanSanych quite rightly writes, to use them it is not enough to calculate the coefficients - one must calculate their confidence intervals.

His example with mistakenly defined non-stationarity is quite artificial - it is clear, for example, that no one will judge the annual motion by a single day.

I haven't read about memory yet.

[Maxim Dmitrievsky]

Alexander_K:

Thank you, Max! Very interesting - sitting down to read.

Please, it's just about what you were doing, if I'm not mistaken.

Memory Has Nothing To Do With Skewness/Kurtosis

and then it goes on and on.

As previously discussed it is possible to generate time series that are Gaussian (hence neither skewed nor leptokurtic), stationary, and have arbitrarily long memories

[Alexander_K]

Maxim Dmitrievsky:

Please, it's about what you were doing, if I'm not mistaken.

Memory Has Nothing To Do With Skewness/Kurtosis

Exactly that... So I was on the wrong track, which proved to be the case.

[CHINGIZ MUSTAFAEV]

I think this explains why the market is hard to make money