From theory to practice - page 469
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There's no point being in the same thread with a boor.
Go take a walk then, you little brat.
What is the point of explaining anything if you have no economic education or knowledge in this field? I don't work in my field myself. Read books, google it, if you are interested. There's no point in me deceiving anyone at all. And there is no point in looking for references either.
No one can be an expert on everything.
You defined the speculator above as an individual trader. If he opens an offshore company, through which he will work with a broker, will he stop being a speculator? He will be a legal entity and not an individual.
No one can be an expert on everything.
You defined a speculator above as an individual trader. If he opens an offshore company through which he will work with a broker, will he cease to be a speculator? According to the documents he will be a legal entity, not an individual.
The broker will never see real volumes passing through the Forex market, which makes the above strategies unprofitable, at least the auction ones. Go to any crypto exchange website, for example, and watch the tumblr and the price behavior (crypto is not an efficient market now). There you will see how an auction from TI works, everything is tied to it by topic. How else to apply TI to the market not even TI itself knows. While it was developed mainly to describe economics and markets.
Theory and practice are like 2 different realities in this case. When the market becomes efficient (in the case of Forex) none of the participants has an advantage over the others, moreover in a situation of lack of information. Consequently, you cannot make up a winning payment matrix.heated debate, but at least someone would have remembered that:
- economics has only become a science in the last few decades (in fact it has been a pseudoscience and still is, 99% of economic processes are not described by Marx's Capital but by insider trading, the skillful imposition by marketing of its proposal, well and of course political "backroom games" both inside and outside the country... a successful economic model is a position of strength...)
- technical analysis is also a pseudoscience, the price does not have to "include everything", including the insider and the plans of J. Soros, as well as timely news that explain everything in history, in fact, technical analysis is a textbook as the best way to walk on a minefield with shoes or bare feet
- Forex trading has nothing to do with trading itself, there is no volume, there is no supply and demand and all sorts of fantasies about overbought and oversold zones are just speculation, the most volatile in this market is the dollar, it flits from one currency to another, then again for all currency pairs, there is no dividend payment like in stocks, there is no company value, Forex has nothing that can be measured in material terms, there is only the Fed rate and futures forex contracts and options
And the fact that here these 3 "whales" of currency trading in the terminal, someone is trying to defend with a serious look, well it's funny!
ZS: Maxim is ahead of us, he says the same thing but in a different context
You will never see the real volumes that take place in forex, which makes the above strategies unrobust, at least the auction strategy. Go to any crypto exchange site for example and observe the tumblr and price behaviour (crypto is not an efficient market right now). There you will see how an auction from TI works, everything is tied to that by topic. How else to apply TI to the market not even TI itself knows. While it was developed mainly to describe economics and markets.
Theory and practice are like 2 different realities in this case. When the market becomes efficient (in the case of forex) none of the participants have an advantage over the others, moreover in a situation of lack of information.I have already written above that TI methods are not a panacea. In any case, we will have to use methods like the aforementioned multi-armed bandits. These methods are bound to go wrong sometimes and I believe an understanding of TI can be useful in setting them up.
I wrote above that TI methods are not a panacea. In any case, we will have to use methods like the aforementioned multi-armed bandits. These methods are bound to go bad sometimes and I suppose understanding TI can be useful in setting them up.
Generally speaking, TI is useless here. A bit of terver and work with the models themselves. Naturally, not pure market predictions but statarbitrage mostly. The main thing is to understand the market we trade in and its correlations. With statar arbitrage it seems obvious. Roughly speaking, at the first stage the same payment matrix is composed and then the possibility of profit and risks are defined with IR algorithms. Thus you get a slight advantage over other participants who use old models.
For pure quoting I would consider only fractals and nothing else (and there is no other information in forex), sometimes it will work well. But econophysics for some reason is very slow to develop or not developing at all, there is almost nothing to read. As for ACF and QF I suggested a way to look for cycles, but I haven't done it myself as I am amusing myself with other things.
Generally useless TI here. A bit of terver and work with the models themselves. Naturally, not pure market prediction but statarbitrage mostly. The main thing is to understand what kind of market you are trading and what correlations there are. With statar arbitrage it seems obvious. Roughly speaking, at the first stage the same payment matrix is compiled and then the possibility of profit on this data and risks are determined by IR algorithms.
For pure quoting I would consider only fractals and nothing else (and there is no other information in forex), sometimes it will work well. But econophysics for some reason is very slowly developing or not developing at all, there is almost nothing to read. Regarding ACF and QF I have suggested a way to search for cycles, but I have not done it myself as I am amusing myself with other things.
TI has already helped me a lot - it allowed me to understand the reasons of non-stationarity of price series more deeply. Further, I see two possible ways:
1) to study price series as non-stationary, by means of methods from the theory of random events (the problem of decay) without going into the nature of their origin
2) to model prices by means of games. This can be useful, for instance, to understand how discontinuities can occur.
TI has already helped me a lot - it has given me a deeper understanding of the reasons for the non-stationarity of the price series. Further, I see two possible ways:
1) to study price series as non-stationary, by means of methods from the theory of random events (discontinuity problem) without going into the nature of their origin
2) to model prices by means of games. This may be useful, for example, to understand how discontinuities may occur.
Well, I guess I haven't delved into the divergence and don't understand how it can be predicted
Well, I guess I haven't delved into the discord and don't see how it can be predicted
There is no way to predict it, unfortunately. In fact, it is similar to the definition of a trend change in classical thechanalysis. Only some kind of statistical model is added, within which you can calculate confidence intervals, probabilities, etc.
TI has already helped me a lot - it has given me a deeper understanding of the reasons for the non-stationarity of the price series. Further, I see two possible ways:
1) to study price series as non-stationary, by means of methods from the theory of random events (discontinuity problem) without going into the nature of their origin
2) to model prices by means of games. This can be useful, e.g. to understand how discontinuities can occur.
3) change from non-stationary to stationary time series and use the existing mathematical apparatus for time series analysis or neural networks - it is not important to know specific price values for trading, only the tendency of further movement