Territory of probability - page 2

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My personal rule: If there are two probability values for the same event: the estimated one and the statistical one, you should use the statistical one, as it is always more accurate.

 
papaklass:
EURUSD, M5.
I myself closed a sell 1.5 hours ago. now I have no signal to enter. it is quite possible that the downward movement will change but there will be uncertainty about the pair for 2-3 hours.
 
MoneyJinn:

My personal rule: If there are two probability values for the same event: a calculated probability and a statistical probability, you should use the statistical one, as it is always more accurate.

There is only one probability, and it is a calculated one. And "statistical probability" is no longer a probability, but an established historical fact that depends on market conditions, trading volumes, news, time of year, etc. Like probability is a prediction and "statistical probability" is a fact which does not necessarily correspond to the prediction.

 
vspexp:
1:3 - way to increase the probability of profitability of the TS in the long run, and to minimize the possible loss I use closing the position before the preset stop / on the signals /. TS is semi-automatic, multicurrency, intraday. I found somewhere mathematical proofs of its validity in 1:3 ratio, and in dynamic stop - closing before SL triggering - decision is made as a result of testing trading method used.
the ratio between SL and TP - does not increase or decrease the mathematical expectation of profit in general, if this ratio is 1:3, it means that the probability of occurrence of SL = 66.6%, and TP = 33.3%, but the loss value will be for example 1, and profit 3, that is, with a lot of trades depo must remain at the same level, ie, profit=0, loss=0. But all this would be in the absence of the spread, but in fact the spread, it is like a zero in the casino, it is that "their" advantage, at the expense of which we usually lose.
 
Not at all, the profit/risk ratio is the most important evaluation criterion, including for IOs.
 
07041982:
if the ratio is 1:3, this means that the probability of occurrence of SL = 66.6% and TP = 33.3%

this probability depends on where, when, where and by whom the order was opened and then closed

 
07041982:

2)The probability of winning with a random entry and the same TP and SL tends towards 50% with an increase in SL and TP.

What increase are we talking about?

If we take a coin as an example, then what about the spread...and if the price jumps north-south - will saw the deposit off - so it turns out that with this approach, the trading method has a negative expected payoff.

 
maryan.dirtyn:

this probability depends on where, when, where and by whom the order was opened and then closed

I am talking about a market where up or down price direction is equally probable
 
vspexp:
Not at all, the profit/risk ratio is the most important evaluation criterion, also for IR.
The profit/risk ratio is independent of the SL and TP under ideal conditions, i.e. ideally with no spread, a large depo and small lots, and a large number of trades and any SL and TP your depo should not change. This ratio depends on the strategy itself, and I am talking about probabilities without affecting the strategy, believing that price moves up or down are equally probable.
 
vspexp:

What kind of increase are we talking about?

If we take a coin as an example, then what about the spread...and if the price jumps north-south, then the depot is sawn off - so it turns out that with this approach, the trading method has a negative mathematical expectation.

The point is that if you enter the market at random and set SL=TP=50000 points, the probability of winning = nearly 50%, but if SL=TP=50 points, then the probability of winning in the long run is much lower, because there is an impact of spread in each trade. That is, if you earn 50,000 pips and give away just 3 points of spread - it is lower, and if you earn 50 pips and give away 3 points of spread, then it is as much as 6% of the profit.
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