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Let me explain again. On a long period of history (more than 100 bars) the ratio of increasing and decreasing bars tends to 1, i.e. 50/50. While the minimum ratio on the next similar period will be 30% or higher. Which means a price pullback of up to 50% (unless the bars are different in size).
I do not analyse the past in terms of how many bars were down or up. this is naive. the past is in the past. you should forget about it. i.e. i analyse the chart, but not the bars. i call my filter "non-lagging", which is why i call it "lagging". Here, for example, for eurodollar (week shown: 5*288 bars M5):
so... the trend may be down... meaning the scale shown... But I'm using my counter-trend strategy to buy GBPUSD. WITH TP=SL. For the price is bouncing around the filter. Which way it will go - up or down - I don't know. It's equally likely. But against this background, there is an upside probability, due to the fact that the price is below the respective end bar of the non-lagging filter.
Well, I just put that name in as I'm not personally familiar with the equation myself :)
I got this file from your forum a long time ago.
I want to join the conversation and add a screenshot from your EURUSD demo account
Although I must admit that the overall balance looks better
I'm just using this name because I'm not personally familiar with the equation :)
Mathematician, so it was shown by an example in real time, to feel the perniciousness of unsubstantiated statements, and again you do (you are a very good mathematician - pedantic). There's an economist, an academician, first-rate programmers, in short, all of them - but again, nothing works, the cart must be pulled by the rules, or at least all together :).
I would like to join the conversation and add a screenshot from your EURUSD demo account
Is it separate for EURUSD or something? That is how it should be. Steps. You get lucky, you get unlucky. The system is statistical. Or I don't understand what is shown in your picture under the EURUSD chart.