EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 892
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
The Box-JenkinsEURUSD forecast for 25.01.2010:
Patterns have changed on timeframes:M5,M15,H1, i.e.
market changes the statistical nature of pricing and although on D1,
the forecast for EURUSD strengthening is more or less clearly visible,
but I believe this is inertia.
Прогноз EURUSD Бокса-Дженкинса на 25.01.2010:
Изменились параметры моделей на тайм-фреймах:M5,M15,Н1, то есть
рынок изменяет статистическую природу ценообразования и хотя на D1,
прогноз на укрепление EURUSD более-менее виден явственно,
но полагаю, что это инерция.
Hello, everyone, and happy holidays!
It's been a while since I've been here!
TheVikas is someone else's post or yours, the questions remain as follows...
1. the parameters of (what) models have changed (in which direction, what sides are there) ....
2. What does "statistical nature of pricing" mean (with my background as a cybernetics economist, this combination of words is still unclear)...
3. How can I understand strengthening of EURUSD - I understand strengthening of EUR or USD, but the strengthening of EURUSD is very misleading and gives rise to confusion...
4. Inertia from which level, what are the conclusions (how long can it last, to which level)...
Nothing personal, just sat reading for ~30 minutes this "greatest" creation of letters without understanding anything. The only thing I noted for myself were the ways to "melt" the brain of "enemies" :) But for each, as "for itself" is important result ...
Imho confusion and uncertainty in decision-making (both in the market and in life) arise because of the ambiguity of thoughts, goals and methods...
Well now I am looking at what is happening with the pair over the weekend with the quotes, but just now the price has broken through---1.4162
Eureyena's up too---127.63.
What do people say, is it an uptrend for the week or just a correction?
2 crOss:
My bad, there was a mistake, under EURUSD strengthening on 25.01.2010, I meant
meant the rise in the EURUSD quote!
By statistical nature it was meant that on the above
timeframes had to pick up new Box-Jenkins models (autoregressive, moving average, mixed)
But it was just a word, and I would like to stress that
the parameters of quote generation have changed.
And about the inertia...I don't trust the forecast of EURUSD growth,
i.e. a strengthening of the EUR, because I was under the impression of a message
Deutsche Bank on the possible collapse of the eurozone.
Good day everyone and have a productive week!!!
My vision: as early as last week I assumed price would turn down from 1.4160-1.4220 zone, no reversal yet, waiting.... Local target down at 1.4070-90...
European pre-market
Published 09:38 25.01.2010
Hello!
Friday closed on the back of continued dollar weakness. The Dow Jones index, after breaking the long-term uptrend since last March, ended the day down similarly to Thursday, closing at 10158. That said, the chances of a return to the highs of 10675 still remain. Crude oil also continued to lose value, falling to $74.04 a barrel, down over $1.5 from Thursday's close. Only gold managed to lose the least against this backdrop, testing December's low of support at $1,080 an ounce.
Despite the contradictory factors surrounding the currency market, the dollar has a chance to gain some ground before another wave of declines. One of the reasons for the strength of the dollar may be the statement of the high Chinese official, Guan Tao, who made it clear that the diversification of the country's currency reserves (independent experts estimate that about 40% of them are placed in non-dollar assets), which has already happened, is quite enough. It means eliminating the Chinese factor from the total US currency sales.
On the other hand, it has finally come to President Obama's attention that Wall Street has taken advantage of him and set him up. The result is she with record bonuses and he with a falling rating. In such a state, Obama is more inclined to take hardline ideas from his adviser Paul Volcker. On Thursday he issued a series of proposals that could radically change the US financial landscape. According to them, banks will not be able to speculate in the markets either directly or through investments in funds and investment companies. If a firm attracts deposits from the public, it may only provide services to clients (brokerage, trust management, etc.), but not speculate on its own initiative. This is a simplified version of the Glass-Steagall Act of Roosevelt, which was passed in 1933 and separated commercial banking from investment banking. With regulators wanting to limit the leverage of all speculative markets, the indignation of the oligarchy is understandable. But all of these are just projects that are a long way off and have little chance of being implemented. Goldman Sachs is supposed to be the primary victim, and judging by its record in recent years, it is unlikely to swallow this kind of blowback.
Hildebrand, President of the Swiss National Bank, echoed Obama's statement by expressing his support for limiting the degree of risk in the financial sector.
Have a nice day!
FIBO Group MFH Analyst, Michael Nersesov