EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 779
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Thanks to this move, I came out of last week's slump with a surplus!
Thanks to this move I came out of last week's slump with a surplus!
I decided to lock in before the news, I'll decide as I go...
fibo on upcoming news
Posted 14:51 15.12.2009
So far we see the dollar continuing to rise against the major basket of currencies.
A large set of important US data is coming out which could have a major impact on the dollar ahead of the Fed's upcoming decision. These include the latest industrial production data, investment capital inflows, the New York Fed Funds index and the producer price indices. If the report shows a decline in foreign capital inflows, the dollar could come under pressure as the question of its indispensability as the world's reserve currency comes up again. Better data is likely to reinforce market expectations in favour of stronger statements from Ben Bernanke on Wednesday, which could trigger a new wave of exits from risky instruments and help the dollar to continue rising against other major currencies.
Major financial institutions and specialists forecast 3 to 6% GDP growth in the US next year. Against such a background, a near zero discount rate for the dollar looks like an absolute paradox. That's why speculators who are now playing for a higher dollar expect that the emerging gap between the real economic data and the Fed's discount rate will be covered by an increase of the latter.
There are serious risks here. Unemployment is at 10% and there is a good chance that it will take a long time to recover. And the Fed is largely guided by it in its current monetary policy and a continuation of such a weak indicator might outweigh all other positive signals. As a result, the rate will remain at current levels for a longer period and any mention of this could trigger a sell-off of the dollar.
Any outcome, even the most improbable, cannot be ruled out now.
FIBO Group analyst Mikael Nersesov
16:30 USA November Producer Price Index m/m - PPI m/m 0.8% 0.3%
16:30 USA November Core PPI (Producer Price Index) m/m 0.3% -0.6%
16:30 USA November Empire Manufacturing Index - Empire Manufacturing 24.7 23.5
Who can tell me why with such super numbers there is no movement, don't they know what to do?
>> or maybe they know but they don't want to? :)
Who can tell me why with such super numbers there is no movement, don't they know what to do?
Everyone is waiting for the Fed meeting, US GDP and unemployment rate data... This is the big news...
who can tell me why with such super numbers there is no movement, don't they know what to do?
You cited the article yourself: "Better than market data is likely to reinforce market expectations in favour of tougher Ben Bernanke statements on Wednesday, which could trigger a new wave of exits from risky instruments and help the USD to continue rising against other major currencies." Here is good news and it did nothing, wait for Wednesday :)