EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 742
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A drop of more than 1% in a day is not a correction.
The reversal should now be at 1.4708+/-4%
So long positions are shrinking so what? Where is this flow of freed up euros? And when they are gone, these positions, i.e. when they are all gone, how will they affect the market? It would have had an effect in a month.
You can see on the chart how changing positions affects the market. In fact, it's better to read Larry Williams' book and this article.
If you take November, there were sales at the peaks. Isn't it a preparation for the current movement?
And what is happening now? The December 4 COT report came out confirming the strengthening of the dollar buying trend.
Look at gold and oil, how are they behaving? And they are paid in dollars...
COT reports usually give an advance signal and it might take some more time to execute it.
I think EURUSD will hike to the top, to test the strength of the broken yearly support. (I do not know when it will happen, though).
I do not pretend to be a guru! :)
This is only an IMHO.
I see the current situation as....
By the end of the year 1.43 unambiguously.
I agree, I've estimated that somewhere too.
Stop the train let me get off ))))
By the way, a strong support level on the M30 reversal pattern has formed, so the reversal is close...
And here is the lagging news that explains the movement pattern.
Interestingly, the "risk-sensitive currency" is now called the euro.
It used to be the dollar.... :)
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NEW YORK, Dec 8. /Dow Jones/. The US dollar continued to rise against the euro and pushed the single European currency below $1.47 as investors sell risky assets amid renewed concerns about the global credit quality situation.
While US equities continued their fall in negative territory, the dollar made a series of intraday highs against major currencies. The US currency rose to monthly highs against the euro and a basket of currencies.
Disappointing eurozone economic data, a downgrade of Greece's credit rating and a warning that UK and US credit ratings could be downgraded hurt risk-sensitive currencies including the euro, Swedish krona, Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, Australian dollar and British pound.
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The dollar index, which is an indicator of the dollar's value against a trade-weighted basket of six other major currencies, was trading at 76.252 against 75.777.
"People are getting a little uneasy about what's going on in Europe," said Win Tin, a senior currency strategist and analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.
"The big shake-up is behind us, but we're still likely to see some echoes that contribute to some risk aversion and a flight to safe haven assets," he notes.
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Moody's has also downgraded the ratings of a number of companies controlled by the Dubai government, noting the government's lack of support for the emirate's debt obligations. This downgrade came on the back of debt problems at Dubai World and put pressure on investors' appetite for risk.
-Author Fabio Alves, Dow Jones Newswires;
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