EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 1133

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Galina >>:

Запарюсь рассказывать.

Я все по формулам считаю.

Долго очень это.

И в моменте все показания разнятся, нужно еще правельные выбирать, там фильтры разные и т.д.

Какие пары ?, да все и постоянно.

Для того чтобы например еврик разложить, надо от 12-15 пар проанализировать.

Там нет ни технического анализа, ни фундаменталки, ни волн, ни индикаторов.

Просто голый рассчет и все.

Have you automated this process?

 

This strategy has many disadvantages of course.

One of them is that it is impossible to predict smaller movements by the same method.

That is, of course it can be done, but inaccuracies jump to the sky at once, so we have to trade only daily and weekly periods.

After that I cannot calculate everything on small intervals (though I have a good hand), the market changes in a moment.

Of course, for me the minus is also a serious one....

You never know, even approximately, when the market reaches the levels you've predicted.

That is, mathematically you don't know it.

You can only calculate the approximate date with the help of different equations (technical analysis and calendar of events).

At the same time you know with high probability where the price will go and in what direction.

By the way, the goals are recalculated all the time.

 
Fraktal >>:

А данный процесс вы автоматизировали?


I guess it's not realistic to automate it yet... that would be artificial intelligence....

 
Fraktal писал(а) >>

Have you automated this process?

As far as possible, yes.

But you can't get it into a bot.

I work for the same company.... It has something to do with the markets.

The programmers and I have been thinking about how to do it......

It's not working.

It's been going on for 6 months.

 
the euro and especially the pound went down, according to forte's explanations, I understand they are preparing for the news, taking disposition...
 

My hands are itching to open a sell.

Unemployment in the US could not be worse I think. Bernanke has nothing bad to say either - low rates, low inflation, slow growth. He has said it all. If the unemployment rate drops drastically, it turns out that all this is gone... What do you think?

 
Galina >>:

У такой стратегии конечно много минусов своих.

Один из них, тот что предсказать тем же методом более мелкие движения невозможно.

То есть конечно и можно, но погрешности сразу подпрыгивают до небес, вот и приходится торговать только дневки и недельки.

А потом, не успеваешь все просчитать на маленьких интервалах (хотя рука уже набитая ..), рынок в момент меняется.

А еще минус конечно, для меня серьезный....

Не знаешь никогда, даже примерно, когда же рынок придет к прогнозируемым уровням.

То есть матиматически ты этого не знаешь.

Можно только самому как - то там с помощью разных неясностей (типо тех анализ и календарь событий), высчитать примерные даты.

Зато знаешь с очень высокой вероятностью откуда (конкретные цифры) и в каком напровлении пойдет цена.

Кстати цели тут тоже пересчитываются постоянно.


what is the system based on? peaks or closing points...? and why are the targets constantly recalculated? the market moves and the targets move with it)))
 
I see that the second wave in the triangle from 17.02.10 from 9.00. And it repeats the first one. Now down to 3460 approximately (shadow below). Then up to 36 approximately. Don't judge strictly. I don't know exactly. But I admire you, the way you calculate it. And I certainly don't know where it will hit next. I don't know the rules yet. Maybe you can tell me.
 

EURUSD forecast by Box-Jenkins on D1: blue and red dotted lines 95% confidence interval,

5 days ahead forecast; yellow line - 2 days ahead forecast.

 

EURUSD forecast by Box-Jenkins on D1: red lines - forecast values of 5,15,21 point simple MA with a 4 day lead;

yellow line - forecast for 2 days ahead.

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