NATURAL INTELLIGENCE as the basis of a trading system - page 56
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To be honest, I did not expect the dollar to fall back so quickly. Nevertheless, it makes sense from my perspective. And from your point of view ? Sart, has the wave pattern changed? If so, how does it compare to the previous one ? If not, what are the current levels and forecasts ? Korey, what do your fundamental considerations say ?
I want someone to convince me that the collapse of the dollar and the global financial system I have written about in this thread is my morbid fantasy. :-)
If you are interested in operational forecasts you can find them in "A beginner trader works in real account on Elliott Waves" thread
to Yurixx.
What is there to be happy about?
Do you think that I am enjoying myself? However.
The last thing I want is to witness World War III. That is why I would like to hear some real counter-arguments to my pessimistic view. I don't see any so far. The reference to Stalin's signature as an argument, alas, I cannot consider.
Here, in the last post of the topic 'Theory of random flows and FOREX', Prival posted a link to an American doc. I personally found it very interesting to watch. In particular, part three of it shows how the U.S. financial elite arrange financial crashes to get even richer. So far they've been doing it to rip off their own. Now they may be doing it to rip off the whole world. Judging by the CDO scam, in which the whole world has long been deeply involved, this is a very possible scenario. And if they need to bring down the dollar to do so, they will do it without a second thought. It is only philistines who think their patriotism will get in the way. As Marx convincingly demonstrated a century and a half ago, when the potential profits are off the charts (and in this case, they are off the charts), there is no crime they will not commit. And here - some patriotism ...
But I didn't actually want to talk about the war. In this case I would have gladly confined myself to forex. As long as that's what unites us here. Sart, for example, bases his predictions on VTE, while we use the fundamental analysis. And it is interesting to compare. Many attempts have been made, on this forum as well. Unfortunately, they are limited to a single forecast, which no one returns to later. So where is the debriefing and conclusions? What to use, what to trust?
To be honest, I did not expect the dollar to fall back so quickly. Nevertheless, it makes sense from my perspective. And from your point of view ? Sart, has the wave pattern changed? If so, how does it compare to the previous one ? If not, what are the current levels and forecasts ? Korey, what do your fundamental considerations say ?
I want someone to convince me that the collapse of the dollar and the global financial system I have written about in this thread is my morbid fantasy. :-)
If you are interested in operational forecasts you may find them in a branch called "Beginner trader works in real account on Elliott Waves".
Maybe this is right, maybe not. The market is known to have a fractal structure. Therefore, if the theory works on large territories, it should work on small ones. It means that if a theory fails on large ones, then it is even more likely to fail on smaller ones. Think about it.
Note, I said on the smaller ones, not the smaller ones. Still, every t/f has its own specifics, which also derives from the nature of the market. On small ones it may not work at all.
I was looking into that thread and saw that the euro failure wasn't the only one. That says nothing about you as a trader. It's all about VTE.
Many such attempts have been made, including on this forum. Unfortunately, they are limited to a one-off prediction which no one returns to afterwards. So where is the debriefing and conclusions? What to use, what to trust?
You'll see that VTE works...The thing is, everyone is focused on their own current tasks, and parsing someone else's flights takes up a lot of time and energy,
All the more so because in the vast majority of cases these flights turn out, on careful analysis, to be very trivial and uninteresting.
And I will continue to put my operational forecasts in the above branch. Eventually, I think people inclined to sober and objective analysis, will understand from this branch,
that VTE can be very lucrative.
The global was not a forecast, but general considerations that the yuisei
plans need 1.35, and that there will be a struggle (understandably movements, waves, etc. including upwards).
But it is vain to understand such judgements 1:1 in the sense of profit,
it is only the aims of one of the very respectable participants and no more,
(who thinks that one cannot respect the USA - let him put:- word strong )
cannot be understood, achtung genose, supposedly will go from this forecast and down ==from the fence and to the afternoon)).
Otherwise, it's a construction site and boots on the ground.
For example, here is what further fundamentally affected the Euro exchange rate after those speculations from early February:
the Mediterranean alliance (outside NATO) rumbled in Europe, which the Superpower did not like much, but democracy,
in response Bush increased his military presence in the Mediterranean Sea against Europe!!! And this is already a show of weakness,
supposedly these dumbasses have no control over Europe other than to send in troops.
And where Mediterranean dates are for the euro, so is oil for the same currency.
I.e. a Mediterranean Union would block economically the U.S. and England from the Emirates,
and if it did happen. then England and the U.S. would be left to wash their hands and suck Venezuela's (oil of course).
Now let's open the Euro chart and look for the Mediterranean, where the Yanks have shown their weakness.
You will see that VTE works...The thing is that everyone is focused on their own current tasks, and parsing other people's flights takes up a lot of time and energy,
The more so because in the vast majority of cases these flights turn out to be, on careful analysis, very trivial and uninteresting.
So far, I am convinced that VTE does not work any better than any other system. If a trader has some understanding of what is going on in the market, plus a stable psyche, then VTE will help such a trader see and justify what he already subconsciously knows. But as soon as forecasts are started, formal constructions, as we can see, can lead elementary into a dark forest.
Example. You gave a forecast for USDJPY to go down, and for EURUSD to go down as well. If the VTE is sufficiently self-consistent and consistent with reality, then its forecast for EURJPY should have shown even steeper downwards and I pointed this out to you. Pointed out with certainty that VTE would not give such a forecast for EURJPY and therefore it is contradictory and its conclusions are unreliable. Unfortunately you missed that at the time. So for now VTE remains not a theory but a creed.
Global was not a forecast, but general considerations about the fact that the yuisei
plans need 1.35, and that there will be a struggle (understandably, movements, waves, etc., including upwards).
....
For example, here's what further fundamentally affected the Euro exchange rate after those speculations from early February:
the Mediterranean Union (outside NATO) rumbled in Europe, which the Superpower really didn't like, but democracy,
in response Bush increased military presence in the Mediterranean Sea against Europe!!!
I wouldn't say these were general considerations. Especially the very specific numbers in the quotes I cited. And we weren't discussing US plans, we were discussing real forex prospects, and not even short term ones. But, let me assure you, not for the purpose of making a profit. I repeat, my interest is the perspective of the world economy and finance in the coming years.
I took a look, at your initiative, at the Mediterranean Union. IMHO, it's as much a Christmas clapper as the US military budget increase. The significance of this news specifically for forex =0.00. Maybe someday, when Europe starts to unbind itself from the US, this alliance will play some role, but it won't be soon. And the EU, no doubt, will play a much bigger role in doing so.
Maybe I am old-fashioned, but I believe that the main dominant factor in all these processes is economics, not politics.
to Yurixx
Of course economics dominates, but how do you quickly get your head around what is going on in economics?
the easiest thing is to read politicians.
For example the Europeans don't agree about human rights,
because these rights are inherent to all two-legged hornless people,
they think the Europeans prefer the right of the Red Cross, so they think
that they suffer from the development of third countries, and therefore they would like third countries to stay on their shelves,
and keep their heads down.
But where is the reason for the development of these third countries is the Marshall Plan and its offshoots,
i.e. the dollar and the dollar system.
And what was the dollar based on before? - On the international agreements of 1943, 1944 on the currency of contracts == the dollar.
So there went the renegotiation of the results of WWII.
But, who unites under the flag of the Euro? I.e. what assets flowed into the Euro? One can see,
, that the main productive forces remained in the dollar area.
And that means in the long run either a collapse of producers with a fallout into crisis and martial law,
or at least a collapse of the Euro's uptrend. At the moment the Euro is overvalued,
and unlikely to be able to withstand the strain of a world leader.
(If one wants to see a prediction in this speculation, one has to take into account the chatter of big changes.))
Well, I cannot agree with every statement you make, but it is clear that your views on the euro and the dollar have not changed. I also think the euro has a lot of problems, but the dollar has disproportionately more. Therefore, imho, there is no upward trend in the euro, its growth is solely due to the decline of the dollar.
And I take the chatter into account as well. Only, unlike you, I believe that the 1.5 level is now likely to act as support. And, in this situation, military budget growth will not only not slow down the dollar's fall, but apparently accelerate it. So we shall have to see.
Maybe it would help to make a global prediction http://matroz.ucoz.ru/publ/4-1-0-56 + watch the movie on the link above already linked to it. And 1 more thought, this is one of Nostradamus' last predictions, that there will be World War 3 and it will start in the Balkans :-(