FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Implications 2015(continued) - page 1354
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The point is simple - all volume differences will be offset by arbitrage. And if the quid is rising, it is rising in all markets. And, accordingly, we need to invest volumes in one direction in all markets, which means that it does not matter in which market the volumes are monitored. You don't give a fuck about volumes on forex, it is enough to see the real volumes somewhere on the CME or on Forts, or in London or Frankfurt or Shanghai. The same actors are everywhere and their plans do not differ. How can you move the price in sync if you are running out of sync? And to understand this, you just have to look at pricing theory, under what conditions the possibility of arbitrage arises. Then your mind will be at ease.
You're the ones spinning on forex, while the real guys are TRANSLATING capitals. Grandpa Marx said that.
About the chip.
At the moment there is a swap agreement between the world's leading economies. That means that if the ECB runs out of liquidity (USD goes up, everybody wants to buy it, but the ECB doesn't have it) they open a swap at the current price for any time and any amount. The Americans transfer the money to the ECB in the requested amount, and when they are no longer needed, the money comes back at the same price. The result is a bottomless barrel for interventions. And that means that currencies (six in total) will walk in the corridor as long as the swap is on.
According to the ECB, the swap was last switched on on November 4 and switched off on November 11. The amount can be seen here http://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omo/html/index.en.html .
For those who are interested, read Kubkaramazov's blog. It's all laid out there.
I will say it again. All your arguments are based on an analysis of speculative transactions that make up a small part of the currency market. And the big speculators provide information that masks their intentions, rather than exposing them.
The main, driving force - commercial transactions - does not come to your attention due to the poor availability of information.
Arbitrage, which is applied to the stock market, has indirect relevance to the currency market.
If you class yourself as a real guy, why are you interested in where price and time meet in forex. Go pour your capital over. And we'll be here spinning around trying to figure out the laws of price movement.
And who better to count them than the real guys, intelligence below the plinth, and everything else just off the charts. Especially in terms of gold, they all excel at it.
We just have a different understanding of the real guys, maybe because of the difference in eras. For you they're like role models, for me they're just bums.
Good evening.
The topic of swaps came up. Eugenia gave links:
Evgenya1The storyhttp://m.fondsk.ru/news/2014/09/19/v...-ii-29553.html
Evgenya1 2015.07.18 20:40 # RU
Might still be interested see zoghman://www.iep.ru/files/text/nauchni...RVV_1-2015.pdf
https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/61551/page52
It arose in the context of the following questions, on which many pages were written (seehttps://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/61551/page52),
but except for Evgeniya, who gave these links, nobody wrote anything sensible,
1) Does the ECB have dollar reserves ? (I think not, and swaps are sufficient).
2) Has the ECB ever made direct currency interventions in history (apparently not, there is no sense in it and google does not find it, but Strange thinks that is all the ECB does (exaggerated somewhat) ).
maybe you know something ?
but how to apply it to trading in any case is not clear...
PS
about arbitrage - you're right, of course, but I found it interesting the one subtlety that was mentioned here (if I understand correctly) :
example:
the hryvnia-bucks futures in Kiev and in Moscow had very different rates at the same time - and there was no way to arbitrage it, as it was a fut, not a spot and was traded on different platforms...
There is no such futures.
Zogman, what prevents you from studying the market, there are lots of materials, from articles and blogs to books. And to know how to use them in practice, you have to know how they work.
Strange, thank you. The question is, when?
Ilya, what do you say? I`m interested in the next week.
How should I know)
In appearance, yes, they look alike. But that's a "derivative of a derivative" of sorts.
It's better to use the first derivative, as we can't know the value itself.
To repeat. All of your arguments are based on an analysis of speculative trades, which constitute a small part of the currency market. And the big speculators present information that masks their intentions rather than exposing them.
The main, driving force - commercial transactions - does not come to your attention due to the poor availability of information.
Arbitrage, which is applied to the stock market, has indirect relevance to the currency market.
If you class yourself as a real guy, why are you interested in where price and time meet in forex. Go pour your capital over. And we'll be here spinning around trying to figure out the laws of price movement.
You seem to have written everything correctly, Nestradamus, but there is one BUT, the traded volume cannot be concealed or disguised.
Hello, old one! The Mashkas are also showing the past, but it's too late to wave your pants when the train has sailed...
One of the Rothschilds, who had the earliest information about Napoleon's defeat at Waterloo, ostentatiously started to dump shares in the British stock market. The crowd rushed after him, while his agents secretly bought up everything...
Ilya, what do you say? Interested in the next week.
the fib on the candles isn't drawn correctly...
and it's early, there's nothing formed.
and it will be so:
Hello, old one! The Mashkas are also showing the past, but it's too late to wave your pants when the train has sailed...
One of the Rothschilds, who had the earliest information about Napoleon's defeat at Waterloo, ostentatiously started to dump shares in the British stock market. The crowd rushed after him, while his agents secretly bought up everything...
Hi)
You guys are ridiculous, why would you go before everyone else? ))))
Positions take days, weeks, months, and sometimes even years, as it was with the quid.
So there's always plenty of time.
If you do not know how to do this, you may be surprised by how many times you earn money, and if you don't notice that the market price is falling below your expectations, you may get hurt.
All you seem to have written correctly, Nestradamus, there is one BUT, the traded volume cannot be concealed or disguised.
You just do not want to understand one simple thing, all this system has long been computerized and automated, and all the information that you think is special, is available on the TF, you just need to know how to allocate it properly. They get money for singling it out and presenting it as news blocks, and not bad ones at that.
Here you are now hooked on STO volumes, it's a commission on trades. On the same chart, this commission is displayed in the same arrows, but it comes from liquidity providers, not from an individual group of market participants. The STO reports are corrective information, it is worth taking into account, but do not rely on it.