a trading strategy based on Elliott Wave Theory - page 300
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Lewis Carroll in "Alice in Wonderland" has such a character - the queen. She tried to hire a maid (if memory serves me correctly). And in the terms of employment she offered something like "and jam for tomorrow". Alice was quite surprised when she didn't get any jam tomorrow. And the reason was legitimate - the jam is promised tomorrow.
Alex, you have already managed to describe in general terms the essence of your strategy. However, you continue to entice people to work with this cheesy phrase (see above). Only a very naive person (a sucker for short) can fail to understand that this is the "jam for tomorrow". There is a question in this connection.
You've written here that you have extensive experience of employing people. Nevertheless, your continued efforts have not yet led to anything. So where have you gone wrong? In assessing your experience or in assessing people?
Or are you just waiting for the sucker to find himself?
Actually, my eloquence was triggered by the phrase if as you approach the actual reversal, the probability calculated by the system also increases - imho, it contains a gross error.
If we talk about probabilities, let's talk about the pivot zone. The probability of the reversal at a certain level is described by the probability density, while the probability that the price will not cross this level is described by its integral. This is the probability that makes sense to operate with. And it doesn't have to be obtained from the model, it's more reliable to estimate it having gathered the sufficient statistics in the tester.
You of course know better, but where is the logic if you think that the statement ... when approaching the actual reversal, the probability calculated by the system increases as well is fundamentally wrong (I meant the probability of reversal). In other words, the estimation of probability of reversal is not related to the reversal itself (whether it is a zone or a separate bar, doesn't matter), and when approaching the actual reversal, it can show anything? And from this fundamentally correct statement you build your strategy? It doesn't matter how you get that probability, by collecting statistics on reversals or by getting an empirical formula (again, after collecting and analysing statistics).
If the probabilities are derived (or calculated) from actual reversals, the average reversal will be just 50%. Will the maximum probability density be there? If the distribution is symmetric, there will be, if not, the maximum will be shifted. You are again operating on one actual reversal ("when approaching an actual reversal it can show anything?"). Yes, for one particular reversal "anything". The phrase but the market doesn't really care about it had exactly the same meaning as the following statement: The probability of making heads or tails does not depend on how many times heads or tails fell out before. So there is nothing wrong with logic, especially taking into account that the clarifications necessary for the correct understanding of the phrase "which looks like a mistake" (C) :) haven't been made yet.
What's the point? :о))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
PS: by the way, I have refrained from asking a lot of questions to you about the strategy.
to Yurixx
Hi Sergei ! Forgot to tell you.
That quote you specifically highlighted is an encrypted text of the deepest meaning.
The key to the code I included in the text of the quote itself is its last 5 characters.
I hope that yesterday's bad mood stayed yesterday and now nothing will prevent you from decrypting, denoising, reconstructing and then to get its true meaning.
Sorry, I've been talking out of my ass lately...
I decoded the message and I failed to notice this key. It makes sense now.
to Candid
If the probabilities are derived (or calculated) from the actual reversals, the average reversal would be 50%. Will there be a maximum probability density there? If the distribution is symmetric, there will be, if not, the maximum will be shifted. You are again operating on one actual reversal ("when approaching an actual reversal it can show anything?"). Yes, for one particular reversal "anything". The phrase but the market doesn't really care about it had exactly the same meaning as the following statement: The probability of making heads or tails does not depend on how many times heads or tails fell out before. So there is nothing wrong with logic, especially taking into account that the clarifications necessary for the correct understanding of the phrase "which looks like a mistake" (C) :) haven't been made yet.
Either we don't understand each other, or we understand too well. If all is well with logic, you can expect to make a deposit. I just do not succeed, on average 50% of reversals. If it worked, I'd give it up.
I don't think anyone will be left out financially $-)
Lewis Carroll in Alice in Wonderland has such a character - the queen. She tried to hire a maid (if my memory serves me correctly). And in the terms of employment she offered something like "and jam for tomorrow". Alice was quite surprised when she didn't get any jam tomorrow. And the reason was legitimate - the jam is promised for tomorrow.
Alex, you have already managed to describe in general terms the essence of your strategy. However, you continue to entice people to work with this cheesy phrase (see above). Only a very naive person (a sucker for short) can fail to understand that this is the "jam for tomorrow". There is a question in this connection.
You've written here that you have extensive experience of hiring people for jobs. Nevertheless, your continued efforts have not yet led to anything. So where have you gone wrong? In assessing your experience or in assessing people?
Or are you just waiting for the loser to find himself?
Yurixx, yes I have experience in recruitment.
In order to promise any money, you need to determine the amount of work
and the time commitment, only then can you discuss the level of pay.
Currently it is difficult to determine how much time and effort it will take to write the program,
so I can't give an objective estimate for the payment, and I don't want to give out empty promises.
Respectfully,
Alex Niroba
Why not take the path of least resistance? Where does the curve of life take you? :)))))))))))))))))
grasn: the path of least resistance? Where will life take me? :)))))))))))))))))
Alex, I take it this is a cry from your heart?
Help write an expert!!!
All you have to do is add: "I really want an island, .... my own".
Yes, I almost forgot:
:)))))))))))))))))
grasn :
Johnny Dep, for example, recently bought himself a nice island in the
in the Caribbean archipelago, for 3.5 million, with eight sandy beaches. :)))))
Why not?! :)))))))))))))))
Either we don't understand each other, or we understand each other too well. If there is nothing wrong with logic, you can expect to make a deposit. I just don't succeed, averaging a 50% reversal. If it worked, I'd give it up.
Looks like we're just talking about different things. Entering at the fifty percent level means that half of the reversals will simply be missed. The question how many false turns will be caught is different and depends on the quality of signals. Usually the higher the barrier is, the less false responses it produces. However, I think we should return to this question after the first pass through the history in the tester.
in the Caribbean archipelago for 3.5 mio, with eight sandy beaches. :)))))
It is not it by chance:
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%94%D0%B6%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%B8_%D0%94%D0%B5%D0%BF%D0%BF
to Candid
I guess we're just talking about different things. Going in at fifty percent means that half of the spreads will just be missed. The question how many false turns will be caught is different and depends on the quality of signals. Usually the higher the barrier is, the less false responses it produces. However, I think we should return to this question after the first pass through the history in the tester.
Sounds like it, i.e. a deeper understanding of your and my approaches is already required. In general I agree, I am waiting for your results. I, in turn, am preparing another intermediate version of my strategy.
in the Caribbean archipelago for 3.5 mio, with eight sandy beaches. :)))))
it doesn't happen to be him:
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%94%D0%B6%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%B8_%D0%94%D0%B5%D0%BF%D0%BF
it's the same $-)