a trading strategy based on Elliott Wave Theory - page 297
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So I thought, what if the distance between the order opening price and TP is divided into some levels (it does not matter, for example using Fibo, but preferably not into equal parts). It makes sense if the distance is long, but that's approximately how it works for me. Each level corresponds to a number of lots (in ascending order, of course; the profit level should not correspond to increasing lots). When opening an order, we specify the minimum number of lots. Then we monitor this order and see if the level is exceeded in the direction of TP, we add the specified number of lots. I am sure this simple idea has been implemented and used for a long time. Maybe someone has implemented it, please send me the code, because my knowledge in MT is probably not enough to implement this complicated thing without errors. And maybe someone will also be interested and useful. Or at least explain why it is not recommended to use it.
Thanks in advance. :о)
Of course, it is a little bit wrong, but overall the reliability is very high.
Yeah, that sounds like it to me :)
Absolutely agree. I was looking for one too. But after going through 40, I couldn't find one. Which does not refute you at all, because we build channels differently (I, however, have not built in a long time). On the contrary, I am pleased and congratulate you sincerely.
I have not done such a thing. If I do - I will tie the lot size to the probability of luck to enter.
Absolutely agree. I was looking for one too. But after going through 40, I couldn't find one. Which doesn't refute you at all, because we build channels differently (it's been a long time since I did, though). On the contrary, I am pleased and congratulate you sincerely.
Thank you, but it is too early to congratulate. I haven't even finished all the research yet, new ideas come up every time. And I am getting more and more convinced that the channel studies are very promising and, literary speaking, they have not solved all the mysteries yet.
For myself I have determined that it is illusory to use any indicators. But this statement is not for argument at all, it is something of a revelation.
I have not done such a thing. If I do - I will tie the lot size to the probability of luck to enter.
Similarly, but according to my hypothesis, probability should define the minimum possible lot. Roughly speaking, probability is probability, but you will hardly have 1.0 probability for some deal. It should depend on the number of lots. It is clear that this can be done in different ways, including after analysis of the deposit, taking into account the drawdown and so on.
It seems that by defining the minimum lot one can increase their number, if we move to the profit. I am asking because I did not do it myself and I do not know if it may help to "pull something additionally" from a deal or not. The idea is so simple that it has probably already been implemented by someone else.
PS: i.e. it does not contradict the definition of lot by probability
Well, it depends what you mean by indicator. I, for example, have come to a separation of duties for indicators and experts. An indicator provides ready-made signals, while an Expert Advisor provides only trading tactics. I am currently working on this subject: "MQL4: How to place arrows correctly". I could draw some lines based on which the signals are obtained, but why? They would only litter the picture.
My idea is as follows. Let's say a counter-trend strategy. Assign to 50% probability of reversal 0.1 lot, 60% - 0.2 lot, etc. Summing up. Suppose we obtained 2 lots. Now using the deposit size and the specified risk level, we calculate the maximum possible total lot. If it is 4, then we divide it proportionally. If it is 1 - it is necessary to start inputs later and to do with the big interval.
Try encapsulating all "market activity" in parallel channels.
Only on the monthly chart highlight the channel in black,
on the weekly chart in purple, on the daily chart in blue, on the 4-hour chart in green,
on the hourly chart in red, etc., all the way down to the minute.
The black channel (on the monthly chart) will last until there are no strong movements, i.e., until you break it.That is, until you break through the all-time highs or lows.
And the colored channels on shorter timeframes will go into a fairway of the higher ones and you'll need to change them often as you break through, and the lower the timeframe, the more often you'll build new channels.
Try it this way, I think everything will fall into place at once :)
p.s. For those who don't know, to build a channel, you have to select the line, hold Ctrl
with your mouse and separate the line parallel to it.
Sincerely,
Alex Niroba
Roughly speaking, I meant all the files that can be found in the "indicators" branch of the MT navigator hierarchy window, and everything that can appear there as a result of creative activity. Again, this is my personal belief and experience. Doesn't mean at all that they are all (already written and to be written) bad. Not at all. It's just that I've come to understand that it's not the best one to use. And the best is yet to be developed. So, that's how it looks - at least, optimistically and mysteriously. :о)
My idea is as follows. Let's say a counter-trend strategy. Assign to 50% probability of reversal 0.1 lot, 60% - 0.2 lot, etc. Summing up. Suppose we obtained 2 lots. Now by the deposit size and the specified risk level, we calculate the maximum possible total lot. If it is 4, then we divide it proportionally. If it is 1 - it is necessary to start inputs later and to do with the big interval.
I do not quite understand, if it is 50% of reversal, we assign 0.1 lot and bet on what? I mean, which way will it go? And if it's one "turn", how do we get that many probabilities on it? And if 50% - 0.1, 60% - 0.2, then there is very little left till "etc", we may not even get more than one lot. But maybe this is some kind of a specific strategy.
to Alex Niroba
Try to put all the "market activity" in parallel channels.
Only highlight the channel in black on the monthly chart,
purple on the weekly channel, blue on the daily channel, green on the 4-hour channel,
on the hourly chart - red, etc. in descending order up to a minute; you can use your own colours.
the black channel (on the monthly chart) will hold until there are strong moves, i.e. until the historical highs or lows are broken.
Alternatively, colored channels on shorter periods will develop in line with channels of higher periods, and you'll have to change them often as you break through, and the lower the period, the more often you'll build new channels.
Try it this way, I think everything will fall into place at once :)
p.s. For those who don't know, to build a channel, you have to select the line, hold Ctrl
with the mouse to separate the line parallel to it.
Regards,
Alex Niroba
Thanks for the tip, I know this secret. I had fun with it already. It is clear that small channels will "sit" in large ones and, as you've written before, "will follow the rails laid out for them" (I can't guarantee the veracity of the quote, but the meaning seems to be correct, in any case - please correct it). It seems especially obvious on the story. The problem, as always with "what will be" when trying to predict on these "rails". The market somehow pays little attention to this geometry (if you follow the "rails" comparison, then to these land works). So I decided to do some large-scale research and approach the forecasting task from a different angle, figuratively speaking not from the geometry and indicators side.
In general, I agree. Of course there are nuances, but that's not what this branch is about :)
Maybe I overdid it with the visualization :). We simply define a weighting function for probabilities and distribute the total position in accordance with it. The function itself can somehow be approximated, at least by a polynomial and coefficients can be selected in the tester. Naturally, the weight function will be different for different strategies.
What is needed for a good strategy?
1) channels to define the trend direction;
2) Elliot shapes to define the turning points;
3) 23 formulas to check the accuracy of your forecast;
4) you need an MM not to overload your position
and 5) an entry/exit system (stop loss and take profit).
s.e. and nothing extra :)))
Sincerely
Alex Niroba
Hmmm, re-read my answer and realised I managed to get away with a substantive answer :). We wait for a reversal and price reaches a level for which we estimate a 50% probability of reversal. Or 53% :). We immediately enter it against the trend with the lot allocated to this level. But the price continues to go against us, and when it reaches the level, at which the probability of reversal, according to our estimation, is 60%, we add the lot, which is appropriate to the case. And so on. After, say, 99%, we are not being added, but simply state the fallacy of our estimates and wait for the triggering of stops. Well, or not just wait, and try to close at the minimum pullback. Or minimise losses in some other way, depending on what we have in mind and what the tester verifies.