a trading strategy based on Elliott Wave Theory - page 147
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
S nailu4shimi,
Diam0nd.
Thanks - I downloaded the new Opera. Now it will probably work for me too.
Regards, Vladislav.
Good luck and good luck.
By the way - here is the current situation on the pound - channels of 2nd order + Gartley-Pesavento patterns (you can see how the reversal zones, calculated from the previous markup, are worked out ;).
............................................
Another set-up for entering a long position, called AB=CD, has now formed.
I hope I am not the only one who has used it ;).
The targets were recalculated there: On the way to the reversal zone (conditionally by Murray level) 1.9043, the reversal of the current trend may happen, so pull up stops if someone uses the set-up.
Regards, Vladislav.
Good luck and good trends.
I see your strategy continues to develop actively. It's nice to see it and I wish you success.
As far as I understand you're not using patterns from EWT in your strategy, but you mentioned them to enable those who want to compare the qualitative assumptions of EWT and quantitative (levels and reversal zone times) predictions calculated by your algorithm. Right ?
By the way, do you use stochastic in your strategy or is it just hanging on the chart, for other purposes ?
Best regards,
As far as I understand you're not using the patterns from EWT in your strategy, but you mentioned them to let those who want to compare the qualitative assumptions of EWT and the quantitative (levels and reversal zone times) forecasts calculated by your algorithm. So ?
Hi Yuri. Yes, I do not use EWT patterns. I'm looking at harmonic trading patterns now (or whatever it's called - by Fibo, in a word) - very useful.
Now I'm thinking to add calculation of zones to the Expert Advisor - since I've done it - it's a separate indicator for now. And the patterns shown are not from EWT - they are Pesavento-Gartley patterns. They are described in many books on Harmonic Trading, and are available in Russian on the spider. Pivot points by them very often coincide with EWT (with that marking which is later recognized as correct :)), but these patterns are very detailed formalized(http://www.harmonictrader.com) that allows their use in autotrading. Actually the recognition algorithm is elementary - ratio of fractions ;).
By the way, do you use stochastic in your strategy or is it just hanging on the chart, for other purposes ?
Best regards,
It's not really a stochastic - it has a slightly different algorithm - I came up with an idea how to modify stochastic to reduce false positives - I am just looking at how it works. I do not need it, in principle.
Sincerely, Vladislav.
Good luck and good luck with trends.
I have understood at once, that it is not a real stochastic, but its only relative. :-)
I just had an impression that you were using an oscillator in your strategy.
By the way, about the parabolic regression. This subject has been discussed a few times before and the opinions differed. I would like to say a couple of words about it. I am skeptical about it and here's why.
First as a physicist. For the energy of a system (price) to change linearly with time, a constant force must act on the system. This does not and cannot happen in the market. Energy impulses in the form of news, money, etc. get there continuously and chaotically. The instantaneous result of this impact cannot be expressed by any analytical function. But the market does not exist in and of itself, but as an expression of economic processes. Therefore it cannot evaluate (much less instantly) any of these impulses by itself. Objectively, this happens when the balance of economic forces changes, and a balance of buyers and sellers appears on the market. This takes a lot of time.
Therefore the market has an enormous ability to dissipate these impulses. As a result it is better to talk not about instantaneous forces acting on the market, but rather about average forces. If a trend is really present in the market, this force will be different from zero. It is this force that determines, depending on the averaging period, a trend of some urgency. That is why a linear regression, in the corridor of which the price fluctuates, is (IMHO) the most adequate form of displaying the process.
I have no doubt that there may be periods in which the combined effect of all market forces can be more accurately approximated by a quadratic function. I think, however, that it concerns only the short enough periods and, moreover, it considers only one wave (for example, a buying wave). A linear regression, if it is constructed in such a way that it considers both a wave and a reaction, must have a much longer lifetime and a greater correspondence to the nature of the process.
When the process of price movement slows down and an appropriate plateau is formed, or even the beginning of the reaction, a parabolic regression can be built very easily and with great accuracy. But does that mean that the market will follow it ?
Now as a trader. From my point of view, when there is a price exit outside the confidence intervals, it indicates the breaking of the old LR and the beginning of a new one. Of course one can construct a parabolic regression so that its top would fall on the place of the break, but it can only be misleading. Because the true parameters of the new tendency will appear only after some time. And the left part of the parabola (old trend) completely defines the right one.
Much has been said here, on this forum, about the construction of channels. One way or another, but everyone (in my opinion) proceeded from the idea of building channels backwards. And the number of bars was determined by the convergence criterion. I have an opposite viewpoint: LR should be built forward. If an appearance of a new bar can cause the channel to change completely, how can we trust such channels? And an attempt to have enough bars in the calculation can lead to the fact that LR will gradually change its parameters and, thus, the moment of channel rebuilding will either be missed or not discovered in time.
Inspired to some extent by your ideas, I tried to implement this algorithm of building LR forwards during the last 4 months. And I've largely succeeded. I hope to do some research now - channel lifetime, width, dependence of these values on each other and on other variables. Agree, when there is an unambiguous construction procedure, you can calculate statistics too.
Good luck.
PS The pound has behaved interestingly. Doesn't want it to follow a parabola. And how did your Sto_VG behave ?
Yurixx, you probably jumped to a hasty conclusion. It is unlikely that the pound managed to fall out of the quadratic approximation channel, presented in Vladislav's figure. Although, of course, it may have changed a little, but I think, it doesn't matter in the direction. Now the speculators "ran out" of money to buy dollars. And while we will not go 2-3 figures up, the crowd will not get the acceleration for the move down on the pound. This has been trumpeted by all analysts since today. The only thing which restrains the market from the upward rally now is an absence of any slight positive news for the pound (Europe as a whole), or conclusive news on "decay" of the American economy, which fundamentalists call "cooling of the American economy". In other words, this week there was "cooling down of the American economy" and "hard times" for the Pound. And then, next week, some index XXXX from Europe will appear, which will show an increase of something there by 0.00001% and the market will realize that the pound, the euro and the yen are not the dollar, at all.)
(Alternatively, in the absence of an upward spurt we might just get a weekly flat).
That it's not really a stochastic, but only its relative, I realised at once. :-)
I had an impression that you were using an oscillator in your strategy.
By the way, about the parabolic regression. This subject has been discussed a few times before and the opinions were different. I would like to say a couple of words about it. I am skeptical about it and here's why.
First as a physicist.
......................
A bit IMHO, without claiming to be the truth in the last instance - the minimum potential energy functionoal - practically exactly repeats the formula for the non-convex minimum of the deviation of a quadratic regression. If we are to obtain a physical estimate, it is approximately this: the price movement trajectory represents a dynamic minimum of the potential. Accordingly, potential energy represents the difference. Since it makes no difference whether we are above or below the trajectory (we need a square), this is the result. (I am writing in abbreviated form, hope you will understand or correct). Next will be the problem of determining the significance of the sample. What I wrote about is a zig-zag type algorithm. If the significant swings are known - it's a matter of technique to build the projections ;).
PS Interesting behaviour of the pound. I do not want it to follow the parabola. And how did your Sto_VG behave ?
I'll try to pin a picture.....;).
Vladislav, could you be more specific - the name of the book or link on the spider, because there is quite a lot...
Vladislav, can you be more specific - the name of the book or a link on the spider, because there's quite a lot...
http://forex.kbpauk.ru/showflat.php/Cat/0/Number/119151/Main/114734/
http://onix-trade.net/forum/index.php?s=dda7d6d1252cf601ec883ee18ee92896&showtopic=118&st=80&p=46508&#entry46508
http://onix-trade.net/forum/index.php?showtopic=141&st=220&gopid=82519&#entry82519
Vladislav, can you be more specific - the name of the book or a link on the spider, because there's quite a lot...
Start, for example, from here http://forex.kbpauk.ru/showflat.php/Cat/0/Number/16113/an/0/page/2#Post16113
There are further topics inside the links. And look at the site that I gave you in my posts.
The material that was given solandr also interesting.
Good luck.