a trading strategy based on Elliott Wave Theory - page 210
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Sergey, you are amazingly flexible (or I don't understand anything)! Previously you wrote, verbatim, "It will definitely not reduce to a trend, due to its absence...", and previously convinced of that, and with this post you refuted the earlier statement and expanded on mine. It may well be that I haven't yet fully understood where it is and where it isn't.
I meant "It cannot be reduced to a deterministic trend, because there is no trend...". ;-)
In the case of a stochastic trend, the FAC will not be positive, i.e. the trend is there, but there is no way of detecting it in time. It is connected with inevitable phase lag inherent to all casual signal processing schemes. By the time you identify a stochastic trend, it is likely to be over. This is different from a deterministic one - the latter is more likely to continue.
Otherwise, I completely agree with you.
The requirements for a model: it must logically derive specific entry levels, objectives, sl and/or position rules. The multifactor model you cited is described elsewhere, but is of only theoretical interest, because it does not have the above conclusions necessary for trading. And to put it simply, there are so many factors and they change so often that it is impossible to predict anything (in the right sense) with this model.
The model that I tried to describe is based on sentiment and trying to find discrete points of time, when there are few basic factors and others become noise in this model. Here is another rough example: when a breakdown is traded, the main trade ideas are related to it and to the counterride, while trades executed due to other considerations can be reasonably considered as noise with the MO=0. This model allows to numerically estimate the zones in which this or that group will drive the price in a certain direction and find signs of timely joining the necessary group and numerically define the goals and the system sl.
Avals, if you don't mind expanding on the content of the idea in more detail. For example, on what basis are you going to make a decision about the significance of the anticipated price direction when you are near a significant level?
....
The model I tried to describe is based on sentiment and trying to find discrete points of time when there are few basic factors and the others become noise in this model. Here is another rough example: when a breakdown is traded, the main trade ideas are related to it and to the counterride, while trades executed due to other considerations can be reasonably considered as noise with the MO=0. This model allows to numerically estimate the zones where this or that group will drive the price in a certain direction and find signs of timely connection to the necessary group and numerically define the goals and the system sl.
Are we talking about bifurcation points?
Although one of the parties may not be speculators and it is not necessarily connected with a breakdown. What is common is that there are price ranges, where it is mainly driven by a group with common interests and goals. These zones alternate and even overlap. And at these critical points, the price can go anywhere, but it will follow these "zones", which should be used in trading. The price series consists of such oppositions at different scales. Therefore, simply predicting the direction is impossible, and pointless.
Yes, a bifurcation point is a critical point where the opposing forces are equal and the price can go either way.
Имейте ввиду, что я ни где не сказал, что мне непонятно что именно и как именно они делали, то есть какие математические методики использовали. Говорил только, что непонятна интерпретация результатов, а это совсем другое.
North Wind you seem not long in this thread and therefore allow myself to give you some advice, Alex Niroba here the most champion of this kind of conversations that you are now with him. "He's already proved everything to himself" don't prove anything to him or you won't willingly litter the thread, it's already happened to all of us more than once ... This is one of those cases where it is better to remain silent.
Jhonny , well thanks for the compliment :)
On the second point I agree.
Well, if every tick, we are of the same blood. :-)
Then it remains to search for macroparameters of the system, which could play the role of coordinates of its phase space. In a sense, any indicator is a variant of such a parameter. Though they fulfil their functions with different success. Therefore, I have nothing against indicators in general. It's another matter that there are plenty of them but none of them has what I need.
As for the second point, I would like to suggest the following. If the dynamic state of process stochastics allows making decisions about the direction of the next candle, then we should not wait for the beginning of the next candle. If the state control is dynamic, then the decision point criteria should also be formulated. Then the market entry and exit will not be bound to the t/f. And the size of your candlestick can be saved as a sliding window size. (Again, we obtain something similar to an indicator).
However, you understand all this without me.
What attracts attention is the essentially non-random nature of the system's response.
Would I be wrong in assuming that these parameters are determined for each reference? That is, for each current y(i) , there would be:
Perturbation: y(i-1)-y(i)
Response: y(i)- y(i+1)
Is this correct? Or are the perturbations counted by some zigzag?
PS: Similar beautifully non-random image appears in the connection deviations and volumes, but to use it so far I failed. I have not yet managed to use it, though I intuitively believe that it is easier to predict the volume, than the price or its increment.
This is an interesting picture.
Visually, only the asymmetry of the filling of the 1st and 4th quadrants attracts attention. Especially in the quadrants with side 20 adjoining to the origin of coordinates.
In the 2nd and 3rd quadrants this asymmetry is almost imperceptible.
And the tail on the diagonal of the 2nd and 4th quadrants probably cannot be considered significant for trading.
IMHO. What do you see here ?