a trading strategy based on Elliott Wave Theory - page 216
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I recommend http://www.filefactory.com/
It is easy to upload and download. Good speed and no need to enter stupid codes from pictures when downloading as on many other sites. I like how good it is for downloading movies. The free version of the use of downloading files is stored on the site for no more than a month, if I'm not mistaken. I think this time is quite enough to solve the problem of distribution transfer?
I recommend http://www.filefactory.com/
Easy to upload and download. Good speed and no need to enter stupid picture codes when downloading as on many other sites. It is very good for downloading films.
Ok. I will do it tonight or tomorrow morning. Just in case I will separately posted crack (it seems it is not built into the walk itself), the only problem in my setup, it seems there is no "framework 1.1" (I think that's how it is called), and without it does not work. But I have it in version 12 and on MS site :o)
To square the area of pair values (BR,BL) - that's clear. I only wanted to make it not a linear transformation, but a non-linear one. :-)) The distribution of values of each of these indicators is not uniform. I don't know what law it obeys, but it is still bell-shaped. That's why it is better to map the range of values to the segment [0;1] so that the average value is in the centre.
Unfortunately, I do not know what stat.insignificance and stat.unreliability mean, and how to define them. If you could enlighten me, I would be very grateful.
This, alas, is where the questions begin. Each red dot on the phase plane means a pair of values (BR,BL) at a certain point in time. The position of this point itself (above the diagonal, below, in the zone or not) does not say anything, except for the value of the pair of indicators. Therefore, it is impossible to make a decision about buying or selling from the position of this point.
The phase space of the system is larger than this plane. At least one more dimension must be added here - the value of price change, which occurred during some (in each case different) time interval. The idea of BR and BL is that when BR is superior, one should sell and when BL is superior, one should buy - it is clear. Checking of this hypothesis should show that the price changes in the right direction when there is such a superiority.
Thus, there should be points of 2 colours on the plane, red and blue. The red ones are where the hypothetical deal was successful, the blue ones - otherwise. It's good not to lose the values of price changes. Not every change will satisfy me, after all. Obviously it can be represented by a bar histogram, where the red bars are above the plane (positive direction), and the blue ones are below it.
But even this is not enough. Now we have to determine the density of the probability distribution. This is the fourth dimension. For that we should, probably, dividing the square into small areas (of what size? how many dots should get there?) consider the ratio of the number of successful trades to the total number of deals falling on this area. As a result we obtain the area, where the statistical superiority of some trades is not less than the given one and where we can trade accordingly. In all other areas of the square - sit and smoke. The analytical expression of the area border doesn't matter. It is not needed at all. What is needed is the matrix of probabilities by which the Expert Advisor can determine whether to do something or not.
One more thing. If condition of success is not trivial, i.e. if TR>0, it immediately decreases the number of trades that are called successful and increases the number of negative ones. Correspondingly, it changes the probability distribution and type of regions that allow trading. This is a multi-parameter problem.
If I'm not understanding it correctly, please correct me.
Also explain me how to calculate the probability of successful market entry obtained in this way.
You must do your best to decrease the dimensionality of the parameter space - the solvability of the problem in principle depends on it. For example, is it so important to know the value of price change? If yes, then we can neglect the indicators themselves :-) Actually, it's not even a joke, you are likely to arrive at the one and only parameter on which EVERYTHING depends. But you still have to break through to it...
If we talk about statistical validity of results, number of samples n should be such, that the inequality is fulfilled:
n>>SQRT(n) or SQRT(n)/n<10%, hence n>100.
The same condition will determine the size of the side of the square to partition the area when determining the density of the distribution.
In general, I agree with you. However, this aspiration is not an end in itself, but an expression of the Ockham razor principle.
In striving to fulfil this principle you should not throw the baby out with the water. :-)
Therefore, I don't believe that everything will be reduced to one single parameter. The phase space of such a complex system as the market cannot be one-dimensional. Even an ideal gas (what is easier) has a 3-dimensional phase space.
IMHO: The task of adequately describing the market will not move until adequate phase variables are defined. As you know, even in a well-defined space, in one coordinate system the equations are solved and in another not. What to say about the situation when space itself is not defined. This prevents us from making that transition from micro to macro that we spoke about earlier.
Yep. It is speed, speed and speed again :-).
As you see, the parameter is one - the speed of the atom! That's what I said.
Just kidding.
But I'm posting the picture. I wonder what you can tell from it?
In fact the value of the price change doesn't really matter. :-)) It's not a pun.
It's just that it (and only it) can be used to build a criterion for selecting successful trades, and hence calculate their probability. If I'm wrong, what is it ?
But I'm posting the picture. I wonder what you can tell from it ?
First question, did I understand correctly that this is BL vs. BR, and nothing else? If the third parameter had at least been marked with colour gradations...
Но картинку выкладываю. Интересно, что по ней можно сказать ?
First question, did I understand correctly that this is BL vs. BR, and nothing else? If the third parameter was at least marked with gradations of colour...
That's what I'm saying. But Neutron said
For these purposes, I've had enough with Excel (even though I've struggled with it).
So only BL vs. BR. Given that the range of values is reduced by a non-linear monotonic transformation to the interval [-1,1]. The interval is such because these indicators can also take negative values. The point [0.5,0.5] corresponds to the mathematical expectation of the indicator on the set of its positive values (negative values, as you see, are exotic, that's why I took only positive ones).
By the third parameter you meant the value of price change or the success of the trade?