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Is it possible to develop any trading strategy to become profitable? - page 3

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Amir Yacoby
1216
Amir Yacoby  

mrluck012:

1 -"its genectics"- Yes really is, more than you think, a brain is created by genes, you know, jews for example are genetically the best traders in the world, i can prove it there are several articles...


2-  "trade is a movement of money from one player to the other..." - Yes infinity explains it, if someone create a procedural way to calculate the correct price better than others, he will make profit, but still there will be infinite new formulas even better than the previous, so the market will allways be less than 100% efficient, because- its infinite


Correct price? If in one second a currency can move 3000 pips, has happened in the past - which was the correct price - the one before or after the change? 
And then to make it more difficult, the price comes back slowly.

This has no meaning, the price is changing in a single day up 200 pips and back down 200 pips to close in be - What was the correct price in that day? 

And which correct price made you not lose if say you had a stop loss of 100 pips? This is the case in many of the timeframes from D1 above (W1, MN1). 

There is no correct price, the price is correct to this second only, but you can not have a procedure to forecast the next second, it can be up 1 or down 1 and both will be correct.

And I tell you this as a jew (:

mrluck012
172
mrluck012  

Yes but if the market is allways right, it goes to the right direction, but as it's inefficient, it takes time to do it, so you don't forecast what the price will be the next hour, you see the correct price now, that the market will correct with some time, because it's not 

100% efficient, so if my system tell me that the market should be 10 pips up, i'm not forecasting the future, i'm seeing that it is underpriced now. 

Amir Yacoby
1216
Amir Yacoby  
mrluck012:

Yes but if the market is allways right, it goes to the right direction, but as it's inefficient, it takes time to do it, so you don't forecast what the price will be the next hour, you see the correct price now, that the market will correct with some time, because it's not 

100% efficient, so if my system tell me that the market should be 10 pips up, i'm not forecasting the future, i'm seeing that it is underpriced now. 


the price will never be unefficent because efficiency changes each moment with the price. It is always efficient - and this is why you can not predict any more efficient price - because in this moment it is perfectly efficient. Any change in efficiency takes time but the price in it's way from a to b is efficient each second. In this second efficiency causes price to be X, in the next second, new players come into the market or old players leave, or buy or sell and so on, and the efficiency of price changes. This is why the price always changes, it reflects the balance as of THIS MOMENT only - buy you never can forecast the next moment. 

Efficency talks about this moment in time only. Not about what should the price be this is why it is not about predicting - just about insuring you that right now the price is balanced
Angelito Cartagena
409
Angelito Cartagena  

Technically it is possible to refined or modify any strategy that can become profitable, but lets us not forget the most important part of success in trading which is the one who implement a particular strategy, if the trader is psychologically unstable to be consistent in his actions then no way that a trader can be profitable, even if he already possess the best strategy. So success in trading is all about you. 

Michael Ampadu
132
Michael Ampadu  
Marco vd Heijden:

Are you talking about profitable in the tester, or profitable on a real account?

Because these are two very different things.

I am talking about a real account
PennySeven
108
PennySeven  
Angelito Cartagena:

Technically it is possible to refined or modify any strategy that can become profitable, but lets us not forget the most important part of success in trading which is the one who implement a particular strategy, if the trader is psychologically unstable to be consistent in his actions then no way that a trader can be profitable, even if he already possess the best strategy. So success in trading is all about you. 


I agree 100%. Your comment is a perfect summary for this topic. Of course, it is expected of us to point out to you that your summary is sexist: he or she can do it. :-) This is a public forum. :-) There are female traders too. Like the one in London earning millions of pounds per year in salary. When she divorced, her ex-husband sued her for a bigger payout - and he won in court. 

Michael Ampadu
132
Michael Ampadu  
PennySeven:

80 to 95% of traders lose money over time. So, your affirmation that you modified "a number of strategies" into profitable trading plans seems highly unlikely, to say the least. :-) "A number of"????

I would say you are talking absolute nonsense. :-) :-) :-)

It seems you have forgotten that those who lose money is not because they lose all the time it is just because they dont know how to limit their losses and let their wins run.


Now to be serious (those were just jokes): I am one of those who believe that a profitable strategy (trading plan) is something that is possible to achieve. 

So then why are you saying my statement of making a losing strategy into a winning one is NONSENSE. I guess you have been mislead by your nonsense to think that sense in itself is nonsense.


I am also one of those who agree with those who believe that you only become a master in a particular field after, on average, 10 000 hours of practice or focused training.

You are absolutely wrong. Do you mean you can become a medical doctor by just practicing it for your so-called hours without guidance and knowledge in that field? I put it to you that that 10000 hours is absolutely a waste of time and unimportant. You can become a master in a field by just reading 3 books in that field and practicing for a while. And that practice hours does not have to be 10000 hours.

Practicing for those hours without clear guidance and rules and knowledge in that field will not yield mastery at the end of the day. You have to know what you are doing in order to get better at it.

That is nonsense taking into consideration that fact that that 10000hours is almost 417 days. Which excludes rest, daily activities and other things that you have to do as a human being. In effect those 10000 hours can span across numerous years which might still end up useless.


This is my question to you: have you done 10 000 hours, on average - it could be up to 20 000 hours - of focused study on the Demo Platform to arrive at even one profitable strategy? I dont need that number of hours because I dont follow some rule that is unpractical in this era.

10 000 hours of focused practice on the Demo Platform? Have you done that? Yes or no?? I have done that and even more. And it didnt take me that long to come by a profitable strategy.


If you haven´t done the 10 000 hours of focused practice on the Demo Platform, then I would think you are just bluffing. You do not even have one strategy that is profitable day after day after day. Your statements are trying to tell me that you believe that there is only one way to become profitable. Only one strategy , only one MM to use, only one RR to use, only one indicator to use (if any) but you seem to forget that everyone is different and believes differently. I wonder if you have read all of Jack D. Schwager,s Market Wizards; if you had, you would realise that each of the wizards had a way of trading. They had different styles but what was important at the end of the day was that they were all profitable.


If you had that strategy you would be making money, day after day after day, and you would not waste your time here bluffing us that you have such a strategy. :-) I'm a friend, really. :-) So everyone who comes on this forum is wasting his or her time and not making money? You are actually an interesting and funny person.


I am in the same boat as you. I try what you are trying. I´m on 8530 hours (25th month) focused training on the Demo Platform. I make profits and losses every single day. More losses than profits at the moment. This even tells me that you are not serious. How can you waste 25 months and over making losses. I would advise you quit trading and find something better to do. Better still, you can enroll with a trading coach and learn to be profitable. It is with people like you that the statistics you quoted earlier exists (90-95% of traders fail). To prove to you that my statement of every strategy being profitable exists, I can help you modify your trading plan/strategy (I wonder if you even have one) so it will make you some profits. I believe strongly that the reason for your loss after so many months is because you are part of those hunting for the holy grail and do not take time to modify one strategy to make you profits.

You are currentlly in your 8530 hours, so will you be profitable after reaching your so-called 10000 hours? I doubt! so that in itself make your earlier statement of becoming profitable after 10000 hours ABSOLUTELY NONSENSE!!!


I am absolutely sure that I will get to the stage - very soon - when I will be able to always know what I am doing in the EuroDollar market and to make a good profit every single day. So are you saying that after wasting 8530 hours and 25 months in the EuroDollar market, you still dont know what exactly you are doing??? That is so funny. My friend, find something better to believe other than your 10000hours rule. I am also absolutely sure that the 10 000 hours theory is actually correct. I have positive feedback from the fact that I can see that my trading plan is improving all the time. I am a normally intelligent human being. Spending 10 000  hours focused on developing a profitable EuroDollar trading plan is a feasible proposition. You still see a waste of 25months in doing something that is not even profitable as a proposition? when will it become a practicality? You make it seem that a divine hand will appear in the markets and turn things in your favour after your 10000hours. It is funny become the markets do not care about your rule and wont change how it acts in order to make your 10000 hour rule profitable. So in effect, you have been in a 25month drawdown? Wow, you have some guts still living through it (I know it is a demo account but lets assume it is a real account)


Have you spent 10 000 hours Demo trading while you developed your strategy for profitable forex trading? I dont need to because i dont agree with that rule in the first place.

I have the opportunity to spend 10 000 hours on the Demo Platform because I am retired. I spend 16 and 1/2 hours Demo Trading every day. From 5.30 till 22.00 my time. When you have a full-time job it is very difficult to accumulate 10 000 hours training on the Demo Platform. 


It seems to me that you dont even understand what you have written yourself. I will do you good by tackling and answering your statements one after the other.

Sorry if my words were harsh. I did so because you attacked me first as nonsense.

Anyway, my proposal still holds. Contact me to help you make your strategy profitable for free. That way, you will be profitable before the 10000hour end of the world rule.

Michael Ampadu
132
Michael Ampadu  
mrluck012:

PennySeven you must be very methodic, but maybe that 10000 rule is not true, every person is different, if you have good genetics, you can become good at something in far less than 10000 hours, that theory is not proved, you are using trial and error to trading itself, but you are wasting time in my opinion, you should use trial and error developing trading systems. About the question on the topic, it doesn't make any sense, because yes you can change a bad system to make it good, but you'll need exponentially more creativity than to start all over. Every bad trading system can become good if you create another filter indicator, maybe even a bad indicator can become a holy grail if combined with another, who knows, right? 

Exactly my point, most losing traders are just lacking some elements. The moment that element is added, he or she can become profitable (profitable doesnt mean no losses, it only means an uptrend on your equity curve)
PennySeven
108
PennySeven  
Michael Ampadu:

Thank you for your lovely answer. I pointed out that the NONSENSE statement was a joke. (I do know what grabs people´s attention. ;-) I´m sure you will agree that that little bit of spice worked very well. :-)

I will reply to your reply later. In the mean time, have a nice Sunday.

Michael Ampadu
132
Michael Ampadu  
Now we can all see how we disagree on a number of things here. At the end of the day, it just shows how infinite our thoughts and trading styles are different. The only common thing that we all seek is to make profits. And it doesnt matter how we make those profits, whether we buy or sell, whether we use indicator A or B or no indicator, whether we trade on the dailyTF or the 1minute TF, whether we use technical analysis or fundamental, whatever the combination or style might be, all that matters is that you are not in a loss at the end of your journey. Even that is infinite because my journey might be at the end of the month, another might be the year even others might be an hour. So in the end it comes down to the world of unpredictability.
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