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Is it possible to develop any trading strategy to become profitable?

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Michael Ampadu
132
Michael Ampadu  

I have come to the realisation that any trading strategy once properly defined and modified can become profitable to the developer or trader.

I have analysed and tested a number of strategies that seemed not to work initially until I modified them. Does anyone have the same perception or a conflicting one?

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
99794
Sergey Golubev  

There is the other approach or theory: no need any trading strategy to be profitable. Nothing. It is necessary to have just a desire to be profitable.

Example - one coder uploaded EA (in rus part of the forum in 'Traders Joking' thread, free to download from this post). No strategy to be coded inside this EA, but this EA (according to them) is always profitable for any pair and any timeframe (in backtesting only sorry).

It is their backtesting result:


I backtested it too for EURUSD H1, and it is true - profitable:



Files:
eurusdh1.zip 70 kb
eurusdh1_1.zip 118 kb
Marco vd Heijden
Moderator
5799
Marco vd Heijden  
Michael Ampadu:

I have come to the realisation that any trading strategy once properly defined and modified can become profitable to the developer or trader.

I have analysed and tested a number of strategies that seemed not to work initially until I modified them. Does anyone have the same perception or a conflicting one?

Are you talking about profitable in the tester, or profitable on a real account?

Because these are two very different things.

PennySeven
108
PennySeven  
Michael Ampadu:

I have come to the realisation that any trading strategy once properly defined and modified can become profitable to the developer or trader.

I have analysed and tested a number of strategies that seemed not to work initially until I modified them. Does anyone have the same perception or a conflicting one?


80 to 95% of traders lose money over time. So, your affirmation that you modified "a number of strategies" into profitable trading plans seems highly unlikely, to say the least. :-) "A number of"????

I would say you are talking absolute nonsense. :-) :-) :-)

Now to be serious (those were just jokes): I am one of those who believe that a profitable strategy (trading plan) is something that is possible to achieve. 

I am also one of those who agree with those who believe that you only become a master in a particular field after, on average, 10 000 hours of practice or focused training.

This is my question to you: have you done 10 000 hours, on average - it could be up to 20 000 hours - of focused study on the Demo Platform to arrive at even one profitable strategy?

10 000 hours of focused practice on the Demo Platform? Have you done that? Yes or no??

If you haven´t done the 10 000 hours of focused practice on the Demo Platform, then I would think you are just bluffing. You do not even have one strategy that is profitable day after day after day. 

If you had that strategy you would be making money, day after day after day, and you would not waste your time here bluffing us that you have such a strategy. :-) I'm a friend, really. :-)

I am in the same boat as you. I try what you are trying. I´m on 8530 hours (25th month) focused training on the Demo Platform. I make profits and losses every single day. More losses than profits at the moment. 

I am absolutely sure that I will get to the stage - very soon - when I will be able to always know what I am doing in the EuroDollar market and to make a good profit every single day. I am also absolutely sure that the 10 000 hours theory is actually correct. I have positive feedback from the fact that I can see that my trading plan is improving all the time. I am a normally intelligent human being. Spending 10 000  hours focused on developing a profitable EuroDollar trading plan is a feasible proposition. 

Have you spent 10 000 hours Demo trading while you developed your strategy for profitable forex trading?

I have the opportunity to spend 10 000 hours on the Demo Platform because I am retired. I spend 16 and 1/2 hours Demo Trading every day. From 5.30 till 22.00 my time. When you have a full-time job it is very difficult to accumulate 10 000 hours training on the Demo Platform. 

mrluck012
172
mrluck012  

PennySeven you must be very methodic, but maybe that 10000 rule is not true, every person is different, if you have good genetics, you can become good at something in far less than 10000 hours, that theory is not proved, you are using trial and error to trading itself, but you are wasting time in my opinion, you should use trial and error developing trading systems. About the question on the topic, it doesn't make any sense, because yes you can change a bad system to make it good, but you'll need exponentially more creativity than to start all over. Every bad trading system can become good if you create another filter indicator, maybe even a bad indicator can become a holy grail if combined with another, who knows, right? 

Marco vd Heijden
Moderator
5799
Marco vd Heijden  

You know mr.luck, i have told you some specific things long time ago.

It seems nothing ever registers.

You see, the music does not come from the Stradivarius, it comes from the person playing it.

The instrument is just a tool or a means to produce and amplify the sound.

Every indicator is a holy grail in the hands of the right player.

Likewise, any holy grail indicator, in the hand of someone unable to play it, will result in a big loss.

I am amazed to see how complex people can make something that is essentially so simple.

You are particularly good at this, maybe it's genetics ?

PennySeven
108
PennySeven  
mrluck012:

PennySeven you must be very methodic, but maybe that 10000 rule is not true, every person is different, if you have good genetics, you can become good at something in far less than 10000 hours, that theory is not proved, you are using trial and error to trading itself, but you are wasting time in my opinion, you should use trial and error developing trading systems. About the question on the topic, it doesn't make any sense, because yes you can change a bad system to make it good, but you'll need exponentially more creativity than to start all over. Every bad trading system can become good if you create another filter indicator, maybe even a bad indicator can become a holy grail if combined with another, who knows, right? 

Thank you for your reply.
mrluck012
172
mrluck012  

to marco: you're wrong, indicator should be objective, so if you open your trading system margin to ambiguous  interpretation you don't truly have a system. I think there ARE custom indicators that are holy grails out there, and infinite of them,  you just have to be creative enough to find these patterns, and the only way you can disprove it is to test all possible combinations which are infinite. You must have tried moving averages with some histogram, and failed, and them think indicators doesn't work, but you just scratched the surface of an ocean of possibilities

Marco vd Heijden
Moderator
5799
Marco vd Heijden  

Yes, it must be genetics...

I don't mind to be right or wrong, all that matters for me is that i make profits, and i never fail on that part.

But i do wonder what will be your next level model of complex structure connected to the simplicity of buy and sell...

Are you trying to say that anybody can play a Stradivarius ? 

Because i know that can't be right... the magic word is again, and as always, unless they Practice  !
Amir Yacoby
1216
Amir Yacoby  
mrluck012:

to marco: you're wrong, indicator should be objective, so if you open your trading system margin to ambiguous  interpretation you don't truly have a system. I think there ARE custom indicators that are holy grails out there, and infinite of them,  you just have to be creative enough to find these patterns, and the only way you can disprove it is to test all possible combinations which are infinite. You must have tried moving averages with some histogram, and failed, and them think indicators doesn't work, but you just scratched the surface of an ocean of possibilities

the only way you can disprove it is to test all possible combinations which are infinite

Yes, if you don't use your brain, you're correct.

In order to say that everyone's life ends in death, do you need to check each and every person, or do you have to understand the body mechanics? 

Understanding saves a lot of trial and error time, which is infinite as you say. Try it.

Marco vd Heijden
Moderator
5799
Marco vd Heijden  

The funny thing is that the possibilities are NOT infinite.

It's remarkably more simple.

Because there are only two possibilities namely: BUY and SELL !

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