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Is it possible to develop any trading strategy to become profitable? - page 4

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Michael Ampadu
131
Michael Ampadu  
PennySeven:

Thank you for your lovely answer. I pointed out that the NONSENSE statement was a joke. (I do know what grabs people´s attention. ;-) I´m sure you will agree that that little bit of spice worked very well. :-)

I will reply to your reply later. In the mean time, have a nice Sunday.

Haha, you got me there. Seeing the nonsense actually got my blood burning.

Cant stop laughing at myself. Oops, I got it wrong then. My somewhat remorseful and shameful SORRY.

I hope to hear from you soon then. Enjoy the day too.

Marco vd Heijden
Moderator
5678
Marco vd Heijden  

Its just about who presses BUY and SELL and CLOSE at the correct time so here you have it all in just one line.

Amir Yacoby
1185
Amir Yacoby  

Of course every strategy can be changed to be profitable in some period of time, but there is NO PROCEDURAL strategy that can be profitable all the time.

Just not exists, whatever you say - it's NONESENSE and if you can't understand this then go ahead and try to do it. I can guarantee your failure without trying all the options.

And to the smart guy that claims that I can not disprove if I don't try all possibilities - you can not prove any strategy will be always profitable because you need to live forever into the future.

But let's settle for one year from now, show me an indicator that is forward profitable for one year on every symbol.

PennySeven
83
PennySeven  
Michael Ampadu:

Haha, you got me there. Seeing the nonsense actually got my blood burning.

Cant stop laughing at myself. Oops, I got it wrong then. My somewhat remorseful and shameful SORRY.

I hope to hear from you soon then. Enjoy the day too.


When I decided about 26 months ago to start trading I read about 12 books. Technical Analysis for Dummies, Day trading for Dummies, Japanese Candle sticks for Dummies and a few other technical analysis books. I did not know about the 10 000 hours theory at that time. I then practiced on the Demo platform for about two months and went live on my real account. I lost 42% of my initial deposit in 2 and 1/2 days. Then I stopped. I realised I was going to lose my total deposit if I were to carry on. 

While reading the literature for day trading I came across an internet article that very clearly states that you have to be profitable on the Demo before you go live. I think I also saw that advice or rule in other articles too.

So, I realized I have to do that. 

About a year into demo trading (I demo trade 16 and 1/2 hours per day - I basically sleep and trade during the week), a friend of mine told me about the 10 000 hours theory. So, I googled it. The 10 000 hours is an average. It is obviously not a magical number. It could be less, it could be more. I am now on 8600 hours. I personally think the 10 000 hours theory has merit. 

I want to be profitable every single day. That is my aim. 

I decided that I will only go back to live trading when I can at least succeed in trading 5 days in a row and make a good profit every day. The literature states 3 to 6 months profitable on the Demo before going live. A good profit for me is minimum 15 basic pips per day. 200 Pips being the basic number of pips needed to double your money on 50 leverage trading the EuroDollar, means I am looking for 7.5 % profit per day. 

I believe I can do that. I can clearly see that it is possible with my indicators. I just have to get to the right time frame - which is a longer time frame than the M3 I start with currently. At the moment I am on break-even. I hope to be positive at least 15 basic pips per day in the next three to four weeks. I know very well and I am quite prepared that it could turn out to be three to four months. I am confident that I will eventually get to be positive every day - even 10 basic pips (5%) positive every day will be fine with me. Eventually is not three to four years in my estimation - at the moment. I hope I am not compelled to change that in the near future.

I am not going to spend more time trying to improve the accuracy of the indicators I use. They are accurate enough for 15 basic pips (7.5%) profit per day. 

I know by now that the 5 profitable days on the Demo is not a valid threshold for going back to live trading. If one or two or three of those five consecutive days are straight UP or straight Down days( no intra-day reversals), then that period should not count as the 5 valid days. It should be 5 days all with at least 2 or three intra-day reversals in each of them.

I feel I will know after 5 profitable days on the Demo whether those days were valid days with at least 2 reversals per day. Then I will go live. 

I disagree with a number of items in trading. How can you only risk 2% of your capital in a single trade? You limit your risk by always having a stop loss. I risk 100% of my own capital all the time. We are here for risk. If we were very risk averse, we would go to passive investing. 

When I have a trading plan with which I aim to be profitable every day, then I have good indicators. When I enter, I am certainly with the trend most of the time. My stop loss is thus adequate to limit my risk. I trade starting on the M3 chart - at the moment. When I see I am wrong, I get out immediately. An 8 pip (4%) loss is a big loss for me. 

I only work in basic (200) pips. No matter how big the real values would get, I will only work with the basic 200 pip cycle. It keeps things simple and manageable. I only use 50 leverage - to keep things simple and more or less understandable all the time. 

At the moment I start on the M3 time frame. I am thinking of jumping to the M10 tomorrow morning. I think the best time frame for my trading plan may even be the M7, M8 or M9. It is impossible for me to know that at the moment because those time frames are not available on the MT5. I am thinking of getting those time frames done for me here on MQL5 - paying for it. 

Victor Ziborov
1955
Victor Ziborov  

I believe that we should take some classic trading strategy and make sure that they become profitable. It seems to me that such strategy may be, for example, Alligator of Bill Williams.

Michael Ampadu
131
Michael Ampadu  
Amir Yacoby:

Of course every strategy can be changed to be profitable in some period of time, but there is NO PROCEDURAL strategy that can be profitable all the time.

Just not exists, whatever you say - it's NONESENSE and if you can't understand this then go ahead and try to do it. I can guarantee your failure without trying all the options.

And to the smart guy that claims that I can not disprove if I don't try all possibilities - you can not prove any strategy will be always profitable because you need to live forever into the future.

But let's settle for one year from now, show me an indicator that is forward profitable for one year on every symbol.

Profitable on every symbol? i doubt. It might be profitable on some symbols but for all, I doubt.

We are all limited in some resource at some time. It can be capital, knowledge, etc. But time isnt abundant for everyone till eternity, so it comes back to your statement that true, no strategy, trading the same parameters will be profitable all the time because even the markets do not stay same all the time. And losses cannot be overuled from trading (except when you never use stoploss)

Michael Ampadu
131
Michael Ampadu  
PennySeven:

When I decided about 26 months ago to start trading I read about 12 books. Technical Analysis for Dummies, Day trading for Dummies, Japanese Candle sticks for Dummies and a few other technical analysis books. I did not know about the 10 000 hours theory at that time. I then practiced on the Demo platform for about two months and went live on my real account. I lost 42% of my initial deposit in 2 and 1/2 days. Then I stopped. I realised I was going to lose my total deposit if I were to carry on. 

While reading the literature for day trading I came across an internet article that very clearly states that you have to be profitable on the Demo before you go live. I think I also saw that advice or rule in other articles too.

So, I realized I have to do that. 

About a year into demo trading (I demo trade 16 and 1/2 hours per day - I basically sleep and trade during the week), a friend of mine told me about the 10 000 hours theory. So, I googled it. The 10 000 hours is an average. It is obviously not a magical number. It could be less, it could be more. I am now on 8600 hours. I personally think the 10 000 hours theory has merit. 

I want to be profitable every single day. That is my aim. 

I decided that I will only go back to live trading when I can at least succeed in trading 5 days in a row and make a good profit every day. The literature states 3 to 6 months profitable on the Demo before going live. A good profit for me is minimum 15 basic pips per day. 200 Pips being the basic number of pips needed to double your money on 50 leverage trading the EuroDollar, means I am looking for 7.5 % profit per day. 

I believe I can do that. I can clearly see that it is possible with my indicators. I just have to get to the right time frame - which is a longer time frame than the M3 I start with currently. At the moment I am on break-even. I hope to be positive at least 15 basic pips per day in the next three to four weeks. I know very well and I am quite prepared that it could turn out to be three to four months. I am confident that I will eventually get to be positive every day - even 10 basic pips (5%) positive every day will be fine with me. Eventually is not three to four years in my estimation - at the moment. I hope I am not compelled to change that in the near future.

I am not going to spend more time trying to improve the accuracy of the indicators I use. They are accurate enough for 15 basic pips (7.5%) profit per day. 

I know by now that the 5 profitable days on the Demo is not a valid threshold for going back to live trading. If one or two or three of those five consecutive days are straight UP or straight Down days( no intra-day reversals), then that period should not count as the 5 valid days. It should be 5 days all with at least 2 or three intra-day reversals in each of them.

I feel I will know after 5 profitable days on the Demo whether those days were valid days with at least 2 reversals per day. Then I will go live. 

I disagree with a number of items in trading. How can you only risk 2% of your capital in a single trade? You limit your risk by always having a stop loss. I risk 100% of my own capital all the time. We are here for risk. If we were very risk averse, we would go to passive investing. 

When I have a trading plan with which I aim to be profitable every day, then I have good indicators. When I enter, I am certainly with the trend most of the time. My stop loss is thus adequate to limit my risk. I trade starting on the M3 chart - at the moment. When I see I am wrong, I get out immediately. An 8 pip (4%) loss is a big loss for me. 

I only work in basic (200) pips. No matter how big the real values would get, I will only work with the basic 200 pip cycle. It keeps things simple and manageable. I only use 50 leverage - to keep things simple and more or less understandable all the time. 

At the moment I start on the M3 time frame. I am thinking of jumping to the M10 tomorrow morning. I think the best time frame for my trading plan may even be the M7, M8 or M9. It is impossible for me to know that at the moment because those time frames are not available on the MT5. I am thinking of getting those time frames done for me here on MQL5 - paying for it. 



Sincerely, i admire your belief and reasons given. But to be sincere again, i doubt you will be profitable using the conditions you have listed here. Risking all your capital on a single trade is suicidal to your account.

I wonder if you understand what risking all your account means. it simply means that if your stoploss is hit, you lose all your capital ( i doubt that is the case but that is what risking all your account means).

I dont know if you would allow me to tackle your statements one after the other like i did in the other reply. I will need your permission to do it this time.


There are basically some things you stated that might make it very difficult to reach your goal.

PennySeven
83
PennySeven  
Michael Ampadu:



Sincerely, i admire your belief and reasons given. But to be sincere again, i doubt you will be profitable using the conditions you have listed here. Risking all your capital on a single trade is suicidal to your account.

I wonder if you understand what risking all your account means. it simply means that if your stoploss is hit, you lose all your capital ( i doubt that is the case but that is what risking all your account means).

I dont know if you would allow me to tackle your statements one after the other like i did in the other reply. I will need your permission to do it this time.


There are basically some things you stated that might make it very difficult to reach your goal.


Please go ahead and answer my statements the one after the other. 

No, I do not lose all my capital when my stop loss is hit. I lose the number of pips between my entry price and my negative stop loss. It happens to me several times every trading day. It is going to happen a few times tomorrow. For me to lose all my capital in one stop loss hit I had to have set my stop loss at minus 200 basic Pips. I never ever do that. Remember my leverage is never more than 50. So, very generally, two basic pips are more or less one USD or more or less one Euro for me. You have to understand the 200 basic pip aspect. Trading the EuroDollar, at current levels, with leverage of never more than 50 times, means that more or less 200 basic pips equal 100%. 2 pips equal +- I USD or +- 1 Euro, very generally.  If you do not understand this point, then we are not singing from the same hymn book. :-)

I use the term Risk to mean trade. I trade 100% of my own capital every time. When I enter and then set a 10 pip Stop Loss, then I have risked an absolute total of 5% of all my capital. Not a penny more and not a penny less - in very, very, very general terms. It is impossible for me to lose more than that 5% in that trade - unless the price moves so fast past my stop loss that my broker only gets me out of the market at say 2 or 3 or 4 pips further away - because of the speed of the price move and the massive volume. This never happens in normal trade. 

Remember a fundamental aspect of my trading is that I only look at my screen and all movements in terms of the fact that 200 pips on the EuroDollar screen equal more or less 100%  at my never changing 50 times leverage - very generally at current EuroDollar levels. Because it is the EuroDollar at current levels and I never leverage more than 50. That is the beauty/advantage of never leveraging more than 50 when trading the EuroDollar at current levels. If the Euro were to go to 3 Dollars to the Euro, the 200 basic pip equaling 100% at 50 leverage aspect would be untrue. 

If you were to do the sums long hand for any trade in the EuroDollar with 50 leverage you will see that, very generally, 2 pips equal +- 1 USD and very generally +- 1 Euro. Forget the Euro. Just work on 1 USD.

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bradleyjtaylor
5
bradleyjtaylor  
Michael Ampadu:

80 to 95% of traders lose money over time. So, your affirmation that you modified "a number of strategies" into profitable trading plans seems highly unlikely, to say the least. :-) "A number of"????

I would say you are talking absolute nonsense. :-) :-) :-)

It seems you have forgotten that those who lose money is not because they lose all the time it is just because they dont know how to limit their losses and let their wins run.





How does one do this exactly?

Apart from setting stop-losses... (Sorry newbie here)

Marco vd Heijden
Moderator
5678
Marco vd Heijden  
bradleyjtaylor:

How does one do this exactly?

Apart from setting stop-losses... (Sorry newbie here)

You can do this by closing the trade when it does not move the way you had imagined.

Do you think that the few who win, win a lot ?

I mean how many times out of lets say 10 trades do you think is a winning trade ?

How many trades do you think they place on a daily basis ?

I rarely see people talking about this yet those answers can contain key elements. 

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