A-B-C-D Trade - page 174
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Anticipated bounce off top indeed occurred and found immediate support at the aforementioned 50% fan ray (see today's first post). The scenario was 10-pip S/L risk and 20 net pip reward, thus 2:1.
The next candle at 08:30 contained missed U.K. GDP figure which sent pair down further to the 78.6 of 1.42689, thus far.
The 14:00 US Consumer Confidence figure came in lower than projected and we see that 30-min candle thrust up, breaking 1.48284 resistance and just stalling at the 127% extension.....looking for more.
EUR/USD
Lurking shorts just below round number 1.4400 has taken pair down 32 pips thus far.
Remember, we dln't advocate chasing the market, especially after data. Better to wait in the tall grass.
We have MurreyMath_1.0 on attached chart along with extension fib plot.
Dinner conversation.
Please note that around 13:00 GMT, media outlets including bloomberg and the WSJ reported ECB Chairman Trichet hinting at a rate hike at next week's ECB meeting on July 7th. This coincided with negative U.S. data to push EUR/USD up.
Also next week is U.K. Rate Decision and EU GDP, amongst a slew of high-impact data. Consult your full economic calendar.
This week of course is the Greek Parliament's vote on the proposed austerity plan, and heavy comments regarding debt rollover scenarios that won't trigger a technical default in the eyes of the credit rating agencies.
EUR/USD APF
Handle = June 27th 22:30 high 1.43284
Upper corner = June 28th 14:30 high 1.43960
Lower corner = June 28th 11:00 low 1.42359
Add AML
Currently pair now up against upper fork with 05:30 candle. Traders awaiting Greek vote results around 11:00 GMT. Data at 08:30 and 09:00, check your calendar.
Th horizontal fib plot for 30-min EUR/USD is from June 28th 13:00 low 1.43003 to high of upper corner of APF 1.43960.
The bounce from near upper fork hit the 38.2% retrace fib 1.43595 just now.
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Greece still counting votes.
11:00 CAD CPI higher than expected and EUR.USD dragged down a bit. Pair had been creeping up in anticipation of Greek passage.
Obviously, standing on sidelines as whipsaw movement possible. Rioting factor.
Lower plot of horizontal fibs and we get current 127.2 extension.
On June 28th morning, we provided the APF plot for the gold CFD.
XAU_USD (mimics gold futures) 1-HR APF
Andrew’s Pitchfork and AM for interior fibs.
Handle = June 13th 17:00 low 1510.70
Upper corner = June 22nd 14:00 high 1557.99
Lower corner =June 27th 16:00 low 1490.40
We've since added a 2nd APF, pointing down. We must rename it AL2 in objects list and in AML indicator for "AL Name".
Handle = June 9th 15:00 high 1549.56
Upper corner = June 22nd 14:00 high 1557.99
Lower corner = June 13th 17:00 low 1510.70
Apply AML indicator.
***
Horizontal fib plot (yellow):
Low = June 13th 17:00 low 1510.70
High = June 22nd 14:00 high 1557.99
***
The Label "G" is for point in time market would not exceed LOW ahead of the Greece vote. Price also met by 1st APF's Lower_ML2.
After confirmation of passage, pair sent down to the 2nd APF's Lower_ML1. That was also a 50% pullback based on Low = 13:00 1495.29.
The label ci represents period of U.S. crude inventory data, which came out below expectations. We believe gold was dragged with oil upwards.
The 15:00 candle probed above bit closed at the LOW. This intersection also contained the 2nd APF's Median Line (middle fork), and the 1st APF's Lower_ML2.
And finally, the extension respected this plot:
Low = June 27th 16:00 1490.40
High = June 14th 14:00 1506.25
127.2 = 1510.56 (near LOW)
138.2 = 1512.3
Greece looks like they are headed to what amounts to a refinancing of debt over a 30-year period, but a gloomy outlook remains for that country as it attempts to dig out of a massive debt ratio.
The subject of asset bubbles is here to stay for the foreseeable future. Came across an older article on the real estate bubble world-wide. Also other links, including article on China from Gary Shilling via bloomberg.
The Aftermath of the Global Housing Bubble Chokes the World Banking System. Only a Coordinated Worldwide Loan Massacre Could Defeat a Japanese-Style Dead-and-Dying-of-Debt Kamikaze. Hell Approaches Us All, But Only For An Extended Period. « Real Esta
https://www.mql5.com/go?link=http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?xct=gd.e070220
Shilling: China Heading for a Hard Landing, Pt. 3 - Bloomberg
https://www.mql5.com/go?link=http://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-is-a-kleptocracy-too-2011-6