A-B-C-D Trade - page 170
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Handle = June 12th low 1.43194
Upper corner = June 14th 17:00 high 1.44963
Lower corner = June 16th 10:00 low 1.40726
Add AML indicator, which plots interior fibs, and exterior incremental lines of 100%.
We can see that after the Greek Parliament voted confidence in PM, EUR/USD whipsawed and initially went up. This high was caught by the upper fork at 21:00 candle.
Other interior S&R respected by price action enough to keep this plot for now. Indicators that plot fibs are nice, but learn to plot yourself.
Tomorrow is FOMC, when FED expected to hold rates. As usual, market analyzes verbiage from Mr. Bernanke.
No surprises with FOMC/FED rate decision, which was held. Verbiage stayed with previous story line of moderate growth. FED will continue accommodating stance including low interest rate, and finish off QE2.
FED Chief Ben Bernanke to speak at a press conference in about 30 minutes.
Not much, if any, reaction in currencies (yet). Gold had slight dip. USOIL rose, but was partially related to regular scheduled inventory report.
Forgot to remind that the Greeks have a June 28th vote on the austerity measures. Passage is required in order to obtain a 12 billion euro tranche of the original 110 billion euro bail out loan. After that is the requested 2nd bail out loan nearing 100 billion euro.
Greece has debt holders across the globe. If there is a a default, many banks will be affected, and it could also set off a domino effect toward Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain.
Many feel that the level of debt is insurmountable, and these loans only delay the inevitable, which is a restructuring. Less likely is a default, although technically Greece is bankrupt.
Another angle is a "Brady" style solution, which is described here:
Greece Needs a Brady-Style Rescue Plan, Says Weinberg: Tom Keene - Bloomberg
In the end, there must be fiscal accountability by all nations. Coveying the message and not being judgmental, we were surprised to see the statistic that 65% of Greeks don't pay income tax. We are aware of tax collection problems but this certainly is an acute percentage.
The U.S. faces its own problems with debt. The government's low interest policy, which suppresses the value of the USD, may ultimately result in the USD losing its status as the world's reserve currency.
Commodities, such as oil, are priced in USD. The transactions normally have to be converted into USD first.
China and Russia, amongst others, have been lobbying for a switch to a basket of currencies. Reportedly, the two countries have reached agreement to conduct certain transaction without the USD.
If the USD loses its status as the world's reserve currency, it will be disastrous for America. This status allows the U.S. to print money. Good or bad, this has been used to float debt longer.
We'll add our further humble dinner conversation comments post-Bernake press conference.
Both attached charts are 30-min. The 1st chart has PSQ9 and yellow lower fork line per previous post.
We can see price swing from the top Moon 180-degree as well as the pink trend line (per previous post), We plotted an ABC from the top.
Swing C was contained by the Mars 90-degree (same as blue 138.2), and the lower fork line.Pair reached the FE 127 at the Moon 90.
The 2nd chart has the MurreyMath1.0 indicator, and is a continuance of our last post. We have 2 plots on this chart.
1) High = June 21st 16:00 1.21473 (same as 6/8th MML)
Low = June 21st 22:00 1.20734
This resulted in the 16:00 bottom 161.8 extension, which is same level as the 2/8th MML also seen June 20th. Natural bounce here just ahead of 16:30 FOMC.
2) ABC plot;
a = June 22nd 06:00 high 1.21470
b = June 22nd 10:30 low 1.20808
c = June 22nd 11:30 high 1.21200
FE 127 = 1.20358 (hit 14:30 and 15:30)
USD strength post-Bernanke. EUR/USD at early Asian low, some get off here.
On EUR/CHF chart and coordinates posted, add APF. Give you one of the 3 points. It is the 06:30 revisit of 6/8th MML. The subsequent 161.8 extension hit the Median Line (middle fork).
Add the AML indicator for interior fibs. The 30-min candles will show 01:00 resistance at Upper_ML2.
EUR/USD testing support cluster during 05:00 and 06:00 hour, ahead of European open and wave of medium-impact data. Bonus if you can see chart.
hi give a view on GBP/USD ??????
Pretty sure the attached plot on the 30-min GBP/USD was posted. APF and horizontal fibs.
Yesterday this time, pair hit the 100% expansion of APF to upside. The bounce down first met upper fork as support and eventually broke through post-Bernanke that resulted in overall USD strength.
The 07:00 candle just bumped back up against 161.8 and upper fork line. Next support is 200% extension 1.59834. However, movement will be influance by data, so check your full economic calendar.
Here's pair with PSQ9 and fibs. GBP has 08:30 and 10:00 data.