A-B-C-D Trade - page 165
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This is the same 1-hour chart, zoom-out to see Trichet candle June 9th 12:00, bounce off 38.2% fib fan ray, then to bottom FE 127 on June 10th. A BAJA bullish divergence formed at this bottom.
The fibo fan's 61.8% provided support as pair walked up, until June 13th bounce at intersection of Mars 90 and Moon 270, which was bounce trade opportunity as we outlined.
The bounce went to the 61.8% retrace and formed a pivot low (L). The swing high met resistance at the SQ9 360-degree to form a high (H). The pullback was small ahead of the European open, and supported by the Mars and Moon lines.
The pair made a 138.2% extension which was just short of the fibo fan's 50% ray. Pullback was to the Moon 90-degree just ahead of U.S. data at 12:30. The 10:00 and 11:00 candle bodies were above the 23.6% retrace fib (not show).
U.S. data create some whipsaw during 12:00 and 13:00 candles, before pair made its 161.8% extension, met by fibo fan's 50% ray. This top is also the 50% retrace level fro wide plot using Trichet candle high to Sunday low.
The 3 clicks for the 1-hour EUR/CHF APF plot are:
Handle = June 7th 18:00 high 1.23113
Upper corner = June 9th 12:00 high 1.22291
Lower corner = June 8th 17:00 low 1.21760
Add AML incdicator for interior and exterior S&R.
The horizontal Fib plot (blue):
Low = June 13th 09:00 1.20026
High = June 13th 18:00 1.20893
161.8 = 1.21429 hit during June 14th 09:00 which was at the upper fork. The bounce went for 46 gross pips and supported by AL1Lower_ML2 (dotted gray line).
Pair broke above upper fork during 12:00 candle and reached the 261.8 extension 1.22296 at June 14th 15:00 candle. This level also is the Mars 180, as well as the 78.6% retrace fib based on High = upper corner 1.22961.
This peak is also the 161.8 (not shown) from plot using June 14th 01:00 low 1.20101 and June 14th 09:00 high 1.21421.
USOIL 1-hour APF plot:
Handle = June 1st 07:00 high 103.28
Upper corner = June 9th 15:00 high 102.40
Lower corner = June 7th 13:00 low 97.71
Insert AML indicator.
Plot horizontal fibs (yellow) using upper corner as high and June 13th 17:00 low 96.13.
We like price compliance with Median Line (ML), which is the middle fork, and resistance by Upper_ML1. Currently the Upper_ML2 and 50% retrace fib acting as resistance for short.
U.S. Fed Chief Bernanke speaking, which started about 5 minutes ago. He is focusing on U.S. debt.
Let's start with EUR/CHF and attached split screen.
Chart on the right side has previous 1-hour chart with PSQ9. Added fibo fan with High = June 7th 1.23113 and Low = June 13th 1.20026.
TOP = The Mars 180 (red) intersected the fan's 78.6 ray, and that level is also the horizontal 78.6. The blue extension fibs has 261.8 fib there at 1.22296.
There was a Doji candle at 17:00 with large wick to 1.22535. The HAMa (not shown) was blue for that up move. En route up, we had mentioned the pivot at the 161.8, which was at the upper fork line of APF.
The chart on the left is a 15-min strictly for retracement fib plot. This one was harder than usual. And it is definitely O.K. for your first attempt(s) to be incorrect.
Low = June 14th 06:15 1.20690
High = June 14th 13:00 1.22032
138.2 = 1.22545 (hit 17:45)
This was "curve-fitted", meaning it's O.K. for the plot to be in hindsight. The purpose is to plot the retrace.
We can see price action since top, reach the 23.6 level 1.21715, which is the pivot low of 13:45. This is most conservative exit level on SELL trade.
The stop-loss can be moved based on pivots, and the 22:15 high of 1.22147 was logical. It is above the o% High, which acts as resistance.
The entry options include:
Candle open price after Doji on 30-min, of 1.22293
If plotted correct fibs, when price bounced off 138.2 at 17:45 , next 15-min candle open price of
1.22293 (same). The 17:45 was an engulfing candle.
If plotted correct fibs, on 5-min as trigger, next candle after 17:45 bounced off 138.2. Entry price = 1.22435.
EUR/USD
Our last post on this said untradeable, which was referring to up move after U.S. data.
The bounce down off the 161.8 and wide plot's 50%, was trade-worthy, but had an unannounced (not listed on data calendar) speech by Bernanke. We were tuned in on the usual financial shows and found out that way.
The 2nd chart is a split screen, with the left being a 15-min session colored chart. A trend line was plotted on pivot lows of the June 14th Asian and European sessions.
Break of trend line occurred at June 14th 23:00, just prior to Tokyo/Asian open. This was another entry technique.
The retrace hit the 61.8% fib (black), plotted from yesterday's (June 14th) Asian Low to High. This level is also the ABC's FE 78.6 (not shown), based on Point B at trend line.
On the right hand chart, we can see the red Moon and Mars acting as support. Notice the diagonal Moon 270 was somewhat similar to the trend line in areas of support, including Point B at 20:00.
EUR/CHF experienced a 75-pips spike up starting at 04:15, generally after our last post. Retraced to 88.6% fib.
Can't find cause, reverting.
EUR/CHF 15-min
Double top at the 88.6 and now an engulfing candle if it stays below previous candle's low.
EUR/USD and USOIL testing support and actually below it now. EUR/CHF made nice return down.
Here we go.
Upper left is same EUR/USD 15-min chart showing break of 61.8 fib, and hit to 88.6 fib.
Upper right is same EUR/USD 1-hour with PSQ9 and hit to fibo fan 61.8 that has been support of up move since week opening.
Lower leftis EUR/CHF 15-min with double top at wide 88.6% fib (white) , and 05:30 engulfing candle. SELL entry at top or after 05:30 candle. Pair now pulling back above 61.8 retrace fib (blue).
Lower right is USOIL, where we can see break of 99.00 support.
The EUR/CHF quick move up didn't make sense to us and we could not confirm reason. It move opposite of normal correlation with oil. Nice R/R on short.