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forexpros2 2010.08.09 10:47 #611

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 09/08/2010

ForexPros Daily Analysis August 09, 2010

Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex

Trading to Start Winning

Expert: Kris Matthews

When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT

Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one

direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction?

Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take

care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up

of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful

driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in

Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your

direction right and increase your win rate.

Click here to join free

---

Fundamental Analysis: Nonfarm Productivity

The Nonfarm Productivity measures the annualized change in the average

productivity level of US workers when producing goods and services,

excluding the farming sector. The Nonfarm Productivity is calculated by

dividing the GDP by the number of hours worked. Growth in Nonfarm

Productivity is usually seen as a sign of a healthy economy.

A drop in Labor Productivity indicates inflation - since it's equivalent to

a rise in wages. It can be quite volatile. A higher than expected reading

should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected

reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. The analysts

predict a future reading of 0.10%.-

--

Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the resistance specified in Friday's report 1.3212, and

successfully reached the first suggested target 1.3311, reaching the highest

level in more the 3 month in the Dollar-aftermath which followed the coming

out of the US monthly employment report. Technically, what is really

important is that we came close on Friday to a very important trend line,

and we are still around it: the trend line rising from June 29th low on

hourly the chart, which is running at 1.3194. Therefore, we should keep eyes

& mind open today, and consider all scenarios, and keep separate trading

plans ready. If we test the above mentioned trend line, it will be the

single most important technical to start the week with. As we said, this

line is at 1.3194, and should not be broken in order to keep the technical

outlook positive. But before we get ahead f ourselves, there is another

important support at 1.3265, if broken we will target a test of the above

mentioned line. And if it is also broken, we will witness a strong drop to

1.3118 at the very least. On the other hand, short term resistance is at

1.3306, and it is the key for more gains. If we break it, we will target

1.3383 & 1.3442. When approaching such an important trend line, the

following move is usually massive, whether it is broken or it manages to

reverse the direction. That is why we will focus our attention on this line,

until it is broken to the downside, or the price shoots up very far from it!

Support:

* 1.3265: short term 38.2% Fibonacci.

* 1.3194: the rising trend line from Jun 29th low, the most important short

term support.

* 1.3118: Aug 5th low.

Resistance:

* 1.3306: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Friday's top.

* 1.3383: Mar 31st low.

* 1.3442: Feb 19th important low.

---

USD/JPY

The Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in Friday's report 85.74, and

dropped to a new yearly low at 85, only 19 pips above the 15 year low we

have seen in November 09! With this, the falling wave has successfully

managed to reach yet another target, but what are the next targets? In the

attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from

Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is

just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining

the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65

currently, providing us with a perfect target for this dropping wave, since

we still expect, as we did before, that it will dive below 84.81. Therefore,

we expect the price to reach this target, and as we do, we also realize that

the limited volatility of this pair indicates that this will take some time.

As for the short term, the support is at 85.31, and breaking it would

indicate that we are already moving lower with the objective of breaking

84.81, and reaching lows not seen in 15 years. This break will target 83.87

& at a later time 82.65. The resistance is at 85.89, and if broken, the

price will continue its bounce, targeting 86.58 & 87.49.

Support:

* 85.31: Aug 4th low.

* 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,

compared to the wave which started at 88.10.

* 82.65: the trend line combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09,

on the weekly chart.

Resistance:

* 85.89: the falling trend line from Jul 28th high on intraday charts.

* 86.58: the retest level for the rising trend line which combines the lows

of Jul 16th & 22nd.

* 87.49: Jul 29th high.

---

Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.

---

Disclaimer:

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex

transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for

all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for

you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You

may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and

recommendations are subject to change at any time.

On Balance Volume - Parabolic SAR - Trend Momentum - Oscillators -

forexpros2 2010.08.10 07:51 #612

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 10/08/2010

ForexPros Daily Analysis August 10, 2010

Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex

Trading to Start Winning

Expert: Kris Matthews

When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT

Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one

direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction?

Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take

care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up

of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful

driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in

Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your

direction right and increase your win rate.

Click here to join free

---

Fundamental Analysis: Trade Balance

The Trade Balance index measures the difference in worth between exported

and imported goods (exports minus imports). This is the largest component of

a country's balance of payments.

Export data can give reflection on the US growth. Imports provide an

indication of domestic demand. Because foreigners must buy the domestic

currency to pay for the nation's exports, it may have sizable affect on the

USD. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for

the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as

negative/bearish for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of

-42.50B.

---

Euro Dollar

In an obvious concern about the uptrend, yesterday's headline was "The whole

short-term uptrend at stake", and so it happened. The Euro broke the support

specified in yesterday's report 1.3265, and successfully reached the first

suggested target 1.3195, and even came close to the second suggested target,

stopping only a few steps before hitting it. Technically, what is really

important is that we have, and without any room for doubt, broken a very

important trend line: the ascending trend line from June 29th low on hourly

the chart, at 1.3194. Therefore, the technical outlook has completely

changes the minute this line was broken. The Euro is left vulnerable for

severe losses, which we have seen almost 60 pips of which until the moment.

But we highly doubt that this is it, and we strongly believe that this pair

will continue moving south in the shadow of a technical outlook which

changed radically yesterday. Short term support is at 1.3133, if broken, the

price will drop to 1.3026, then to a very important medium term level at

1.2961. On the other hand the resistance is at 1.3233 and only with a break

here that the dark outlook will be changed! If this happens, a strong jump

to 1.3347 is to be expected, and may be later we will see 1.3442.

Support:

* 1.3133: Asian session low, which is only 3 pips above a well known support

level.

* 1.3026: Jul 20th high.

* 1.2961: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 1.2731 to Friday's

& 3-month high.

Resistance:

* 1.3233: the retest level for the broken trend line.

* 1.3347: May 3rd unforgettable top.

* 1.3442: Feb 19th important low.

---

USD/JPY

The Dollar/Yen did not break the support or the resistance specified in

yesterday's report yesterday, but it tried to break the resistance 85.89 a

few hours ago during the Asian session. With this, we see a continuation of

the correction from Friday's low, after hitting another, lower target for

the downward wave we have been talking about for weeks, , but what are the

next targets? In the attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the

falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very

far away, and is just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line

inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is

around 82.65 currently, providing us with a perfect target for this dropping

wave, since we still expect, as we did before, that it will dive below

84.81. Therefore, we expect the price to reach this target, and as we do, we

also realize that the limited volatility of this pair indicates that this

will take some time. As for the short term, the support is at 85. 78, and

breaking it would indicate that we are already moving lower with the

objective of breaking 84.81, and reaching lows not seen in 15 years. This

will target 83.87. The resistance is at 86.43, and if broken, the price will

continue its bounce, targeting 87.49 & the important 88.10.

Support:

* 85.78: the bottom of the rising corrective trend channel on the hourly

chart.

* 84.81: Nov 27th 2009 & a 15-year low.

* 83.87: Fibonacci extension level 138.2% for the falling wave from 86.86,

compared to the wave which started at 88.10.

Resistance:

* 86.43: the top of the rising corrective trend channel on the hourly chart.

* 87.49: Jul 29th high.

* 88.10: Jul 28th high.

---

Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.

---

Disclaimer:

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex

transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for

all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for

you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You

may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and

recommendations are subject to change at any time.

On Balance Volume - On Balance Volume - On Balance Volume -

forexpros2 2010.08.11 07:59 #613

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 11/08/2010

ForexPros Daily Analysis August 11, 2010

Free webinar on ForexPros - How to Objectively Use Sentiment in Your Forex

Trading to Start Winning

Expert: Kris Matthews

When: Thu, August 12, 2010, 11:00a.m. GMT

Have you ever put a trade on after seeing the market run nicely in one

direction only to see the market immediately move in the opposite direction?

Do you find that getting the direction right is something you need to take

care of? What most traders tend to forget is that the market is not made up

of charts and economic data, but rather human beings. Thus the most powerful

driving force in the forex market is sentiment. Kris Matthews shows us in

Part 1 of a four part series how to objectively use sentiment to get your

direction right and increase your win rate.

Click here to join free

---

Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless Claims

The Initial Jobless Claims is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of

people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the

given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published

as a weekly report.

The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job

market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being

hired.

On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile.

Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a

meaningful change in job growth.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the

USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish

for the USD. The analysts predict a future reading of 465.00K.

---

Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday's report 1.3133, and

dropped as expected, only to stop at 1.3070, without reaching the suggested

target. Then (which is a lot more important), the price jumped in the

post-Fed chaos to 1.3226 (7 pips below our resistance), testing the

previously broken trend line, accurately (please refer to the attached

chart). If it a well known technical principle that such an accurate retest

confirms the break it followed, and the new direction, which is down in this

case. Looking at the attached chart, we can see that: 1. the rising trend

line was broken decisively and 2. the price retested this line in an

accurate fashion. These are obvious indication of a falling trend.

Therefore, unless the price goes back up to trade above the broken trend

line, we expect more downside activity. Short term support is at 1.3032,

which we are trading just above at the moment. If broken, the price will

drop targeting the important Fibonacci level 1.2961, and if broken 1.2875.

On the other hand, resistance is at 1.3158, and if broken, this pair will

contradict all what we have said, and will shoot up to 1.3255, and may be

1.3347.

Support:

* 1.3032: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 1.2731 to Friday's

& 3-month high.

* 1.2961: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 1.2731 to Friday's

& 3-month high.

* 1.2875: Jul 26th low, a well known support/resistance area.

Resistance:

* 1.3158: short term 61.8% Fibonacci level.

* 1.3233: the retest level for the broken trend line.

* 1.3347: May 3rd unforgettable top.

---

USD/JPY

The Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in yesterday's report at 85.78,

and dropped to 85.16, approaching this year's low of 85.00 which we have

seen on Friday. However, the price consolidated above 85, and corrected the

drop up to 85.45. With this, we see a continuation of the correction from

Friday's low, after hitting another, lower target for the downward wave we

have been talking about for weeks, , but what are the next targets? In the