A-B-C-D Trade - page 166
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
EUR/USD
While the break of the 61.8 fibo fan ray is important, there is data at 08:30.
The pair respected the 200% extension and next support is 38.2 wide (white) and 261.8 1.43298.
Low impact Swiss PPI data released at 07:15 caused just temporary uptick that is now seeing reverse back down on EUR/CHF.
Today's big news is that authorities think the Greece solution will be dragged out until July. Credit agencies had lowered the country's rating again, a few days ago.
Any restructuring will be considered a default. Therefore, the latest is the EU wants to dress it up as either a voluntary creditor reinvestment into a 2nd tranche or a 2nd bailout loan.
Oil also down, which drags the EURO down as well.
U.K. Jobless Claims/Unemployment data due out at 08:30 GMT. The Eu has industrial Production data at 09:00.
The attached is updated 4 charts. We can see the EUR/USD 15-min meet the 138.2 extension (blue) from 05:25 high to 06:15 low plot.
Lower left has EUR/CHF turning at 07:15 candle due to data.
USOIL also bouncing up from the wide 88.6 fib.
The upper right chart shows the break of fan line. Due to upcoming 08:30 data, if trader not already in a sell position, entering with such a small time window is risky, considering there would be a pullback. From break to 138.2, there was about 15-20 pips if managed properly.
O.K., we have just hit the 161.8 on the EUR/USD. Attached same PSQ9 30-min chart is the pair with an arrow pointing to the 08:30 and 09:00 GBP and EU data.
The 12:30 U.S. CPI data drove USD further down, which was enhanced by existing jitters with Greece.
The plot: High = 08:00 high 1.43763 and Low = 1.42629
161.8 = 1.41920 (hit 16:00 candle) Close of European session
Candlewick probes to the Mars 270
Caution is to wait about 30 minutes after 12:30 data release, which means can enter at pullback (for experienced traders).
More comments later.
Cheers
Here is EUR/CHF. 1-hour chart, the same as posted previously. We noted the smaller time-frame chart's double touch of the TOP and engulfing candle.
On the 1-hour, that is during the 05:00 candle, which closed at the Mars 180-degree (red). That was a failed attempt to revisit high of June 14th 17:00. This peak was a 88.6% pullback.
The extension downward stalled when it bounced off the Moon 270 during 09:00 candle. Plotting based on this high-low produced bottom as its 161.8 extension, which was also location of Mars 90-degree.
The larger fib plot is the June 14th high 1.22535 and June 15th 03:00 low 1.21680. This "wider" plot made the bottom the 200% extension.
Bounce off 15:00 candle bottom hit fibo fan's 61.8 ray and Mars 90.
Greek protest against austerity proposals, delay in EU solution to Greek debt, and rumors of PM stepping down only adds to jitters and flight to safety, such as into CHF and USD.
USOIL 1-hour APF plot: Handle = June 1st 07:00 high 103.28Upper corner = June 9th 15:00 high 102.40Lower corner = June 7th 13:00 low 97.71Insert AML indicator. Plot horizontal fibs (yellow) using upper corner as high and June 13th 17:00 low 96.13.We like price compliance with Median Line (ML), which is the middle fork, and resistance by Upper_ML1. Currently the Upper_ML2 and 50% retrace fib acting as resistance for short.
Yesterday's Post 1644 with Andrew's Pitchfork plot is subject. Attached is updtated price activity viz-a-viz that plot. Please note that 14:30 had U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data.
This chart shows hit to the APF's upper fork at 14:30 candle, as the initial reaction to drop in inventory. That level is also the 200% extension based on low-high plot of 96.50/98.27.
That was short-lived and oil continued it's decline down, making a strong move that just hit the APF's lower fork, and pulling back to the 200% extension to the downside.
This a fluid situation and we do our best to update charts, but this is not a live service or promotion for such.
Markets/instruments were moving fast yesterday Asian through U.S. sessions. We have a chance to focus on EUR/CHF with the 15-min view.
We had plotted fibs that we were happy with, and posted after pair retraced 23.6% on June 15th around 01:00 through 03:00. The 04:00 hour was when things got strange in that the pair experienced a spike to the upside.
The 2nd attached 15-min chart shows 4 instruments plotted against each other. They are listed in upper right hand corner of chart. The indicator is MultiInstrument4, which has been posted before in this thread.
We drew a white vertical line at 04:00. We can see EUR/CHF (blue) and USD/CHF moving up. This in itself is weakening and strengthening of CHF at the same time.
Eur/USD (green) was still sideways. USOIL (red) had been drifting down since 23:00, and was pointing down at this time.
Yellow arrow points to EUR/CHF peak, where we posted recognition of entry.
Back to EUR/CHF 15-min chart, we have green fibs that plot extension to downside.The pivot for Low was 07:00 1.21636. This was ahead of low-impact CHF data at 07:15.
Let's stop here for a moment. If trader had entered at the top filling at 05:45 open price of 1.22248, all or partial profit should be taken just above the Low.
We can see the previous support at the 1.21713 (23.6 yellow fib) level. We actually filled this exit portion at 1.2169, for +53 pips.
Pull balance of position to break-even, which is entry price 1.22248.
From here, we wait for data and understand that there could be a pullback. The HAMa indicator is at bottom of chart to help trader stay calm during pullback(s). For this example, we added the on-chart indicator HAMa T3, to give visual of candles against it. They are the same.
Here is where experience with fibs can pay off. The trader understands that there must be pullbacks, and considers 38.2, 50, and 61.8 the highest probability ratios.
Trader sees pullback to the 61.8 fib during 07:45 candle. Trader did not panic and also saw HAMa contain. Price remained below HAMa after 08:30 and 09:00 data.
Time to move stop-loss again, to location just above that pullback.
Heiken Ashi MA T3 (HAMa T3) has alert function that triggers upon breach of HAMa candles. S/L can be trailed above it, or just above pivots.
Exit levels are 138.2, 161.8, and 200% extension levels (green).
Pair made it to the 200%, and stayed below the HAMa T3.
Not shown is a fibo fan plot from June 14th Low and June 15th High. Each fib fan respected en route down, including fan's 78.6 for 200% bottom.
Horizontal fib plot (yellow) had its 88.6 at 200% bottom.
That's a 12-hour trade from top to bottom. If trader does not have partner, the HAMa T3 alert would be helpful. Exit EAs also used by some traders.
EUR/USD
ABC plot has FE 61.8 = 1.41086 (just hit)
FE 100 = 1.40830
EUR/CHF hit 88.6 fibo fan, based on previous post's plot.
High-impact data on schedule, most notably 07:30 CHF Rate Decision & Verbiage, and 09:00 EUR CPI. Check your full economic calendar.
GBP/USD testing support ahead of 08:30 U.K. Retail data.