A-B-C-D Trade - page 162
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Here is bigger picture with APF and AML on 4-hour chart.
1) Handle = May 4th 12:00 high 1.49388
2) Upper corner = June 7th 16:00 1.46952
3) Lower corner = May 23rd 08:00 1.39682
The horizontal fib plot is from the lower corner to the upper corner.
We can see today's price activity stop at the 50% horizontal retrace fib, which is met by the Upper_ML2 (interior fibs of APF).
This is another example of using ABC's S&R, with divergence.
Attached EUR/CHF 1-Hour illustrates an ABC plot and BAJA divergence at key fib levels as the most opportune time to trade.
A = May 20th 06:00 high 1.26446
B = May 23rd 09:00 low 1.23227
C = May 24th 04:00 low 1.24454
The confirmation of plot came on May 25th when the FE 61.8 (red X) was touched 3 times prior to a bounce up.
The blue arrows label FE 100, Point B revisit, and FE 127 hits that had BAJA divergence on 30-min or 1-hour. This knowledge is used for both entry and/or exit.
A "trading between the fibs" example would be entering a SELL when pair broke FE 61.8 May 26th 14:00. Exit target would be the FE 100. There was about 120 gross pips between these fibs.
A bounce trade opportunity was at the first hit off the FE 100. That moved a gross 50 pips.
Trading a reversal off either 1st or 2nd hit of the FE 100.
Bounce trade at revisit of Point B on May 31st, that went for 60 gross pips.
Reversal off 2nd hit of Point B.
Exit or bounce trade BUY at 1st hit off FE 127 June 1st 20:00.
The week just ended, hit the FE 127 again.
As always, recommend stand on sidelines (for intra-day traders) during data release, since S/L are small. Use of a cross-over such as the EFT for entry on the 15-min has been taught on previous posts.
Recognizing S&R allows use of small S/L, and clarify targets, which increases reward to risk ratio. That is very important. If trader gets jumpy, can use HAS or HAMa.
The CDF for oil here is USOIL. The attached 1-hour has PSQ9, with Andrew's Pitchfork (APF) and fibo fan. The RSI(4), EFT, and HAMa is also on chart.
The APF plot:
1) Handle = May 19th 10:00 high 101.23
2) Upper corner May 31st 13:00 high 103.35
3) Lower corner May 23rd 15:00 low 96.35
Fibo fan plot is lower to upper corner:
Low = May 23rd 15:00 low 96.35
High = May 31st 13:00 high 103.35
We also add the AML indicator to get interior fibs for the APF. We have 5 yellow arrows pointing to areas of S&R with APF and fibo fan lines:
June 1st 20:00 low 99.60 = Upper_ML1 and 61.8 fibo fan.
June 2nd 15:00 low 98.46 = Median Line (middle fork) and 78.6 fibo fan and Moon 270-degree.
June 3rd 18:00 high 100.61 = Upper_ML2, fibo fan 61.8, and Moon 90-degree.
June 7th 12:00 low 98.13 = Median Line (middle fork) and fibo fan 88.6. The Moon 180 and Mars 270 just above this level.
June 8th 16:00 high 101.85 = Upper fork and 61.8 fibo fan.
There are several other S&R points at PSQ9 levels as well as interior lines of the APF. BAJA divergence also at several peaks and dips.
The term Median Line is used for the middle fork of the APF. Thus when the labels for the dotted interior lines show ML, it means Median Line. Upper or Lower ML denotes whether the subject line is above or below the Median Line. Upper_ML2 means the 2nd line above the median line.
Some of these 5 S&R points were intra-day counter-trend, so traders must be experienced. That's why you are here. Learn techniques, and practice first before using small money to start.
Once you get good at identifying S&R clusters, you can "cherry pick" (pick best) opportunities, and reap excellent reward/risk ratios.
This trading style is not dependent on a trending market. There is no lagging aspect. This example is for CDF but of course works on all instruments and currency pairs. The APF and fibo fan plot were easy ones to plot and quite obvious.
We're a few hours from the opening "down under" (Australia), which basically signifies opening of week 19:00 GMT.
We posted several charts Friday showing end of week landing price level for EUR/USD and the various support calculated.
We posted a 4-Hour chart with Andrew's Pitchfork and horizontal fibs. Let's add a 2nd APF with AML interior lines.
Keep the same upper and lower corners, but change the handle to May 20th 08:00 high 1.43443. We must save the name of APF as AL2, and when inserting AML indicator, must change AL Name to AL2 in input tab.
That chart is on the left but changed to 1-Hour to better see price action and the BAJA bullish divergence. It zooms in on Friday's close, and we can see support from the 4 different lines.
The chart on the right is a 4-hour with ABC plot from the very top, as opposed to 1-hour chart we posted using the Trichet whipsaw candles. You can easily see swings that result in Friday's close at the FE 100.
Not shown is wide fib plot with Friday's close at the 38.2% fib, plotted from May 4th - May 23rd. This level is also the May 13th and 20th highs.
****
Unless there is market moving news over the weekend or early Asian Monday, we anticipate a bounce up off these support calculations.
Support below this includes Mars 0-degree of 1.4291.
EUR/USD getting a little activity to the upside to 1.4350 during Asian opening 00:00 candle.
The pivot of June 10th 16:00 high 1.4375 is also the 23.6% retrace fib level from plot of High = June 10th 01:00 1.4550 and today's recent low 1.4319.
23.6 = 1.43738
38.2 = 1.44074
50 = 1.44346
61.8 = 1.44617
78.6 = 1.45004
We also monitor cross correlation with oil and gold. No high or medium data on schedule, after just released decline in Japan machine orders. Protect profits en route up on retrace.
Tighter fib plot, using June 10th 13:00 high 1.44682, just confirmed by hit at its 23.6 of 1.43545 during 00:30 candle. This level corresponds with Friday's 19:00 high.
That makes the aforementioned June 10th peak 1.43747 the 38.2% for the tighter plot. Market will respect both.
Bullish Gartley GBP/USD
New Zealand just had an earthquake this morning of 5.2 scale. Their stock market and currency intitially is down right now.
.....and Australia on holiday. Slow go of it until about 06:00 GMT.
EUR/USD very "wicky" this morning. Testing Asian high of 1.43637 and 23.6 of 1.43545.
Oil still on small range-bound upswing but met with Moon 180 and Mars 0-degree resistance. Gold also choppy in consolidation.
EUR/USD breaches Asian high, next is 73/77 area, which is conservative exit level.
Let's see if 15-min candle closes above Asian High.