A-B-C-D Trade - page 163
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On a slow data day, range-bound through Asian, with current attempt to stay above 23.6 support.
Attached sessions colored chart has tighter fib retracement plot in red dotted lines and wider plot in black.
BUY entries will differ depending on one's methodology, but generally between 1.4334/40 including spread.
The 07:45 candle closed right at the Asian High and preceded to dip back to the 23.6. If the 08:15 candle doesn't exceed the 07:45 candle's high of 1.43683, it will form a fractal. That generally denotes a turning point, although this might just be a small one.
There are instances where it does not turn. If a "double fractal" (2 consecutive fractals in same direction) form, it is a strong reversal signal. Keep in mind this is a 15-min chart and we speak of turning points relative to that.
The fractal indicator is standard on MT4. It is a 5-candle formation. However, it will normally appear on the 4th candle, so be careful until it's locked in after 5th.
This attached chart uses High = June 10th 17:00 1.43749 for intra-day fib retracement plot (red dotted lines).
The Asian High is the 78.6%, with the wick on the 15-min probing to the 88.6% fib. The other charts previously posted show support areas/lines.
The aforementioned fractal did form and we saw an immediate reversal to the downside. Recognizing this possibility will help the trader when looking to exit in this example. Conversely, there are experienced traders that shorted at that top.
The hatch mark of the fractal will appear over the 3rd (middle) candle of this 5-candle formation.
On a slow day, when there is little or no fundamental data or news, the market is said to be trading on technicals. Or the phrase will be technical trading.
This means using either or both of: price or indicators measuring moving averages, momentum, etc. Price includes S&R. Overall, pressure is still to the downside.
As the U.S. stock markets continue to tumble, such as 6 consecutive weeks of weekly declines, flight to safety includes CHF. Fear is upcoming end of QE2 on June 30th will also see deflation of this artificially created bubble.
The USD/CHF broke out of Asian low on ABC to make its FE 127 of .83678 during 09:30 candle.
USOIL at .9790 and testing support of 97.71. Next key support below that is May 23rd low 96.35.
A break would drag EUR/USD to downside.
O.K., EUR/USD has broken to upside and has just hit higher fibs. This is a conservative exit on this retracement trade.
Others looking to shave a few pips trading a quicker bounce have exited already.
USOIL bounced after reaching low of 97.83. Currently at 98.20.
EUR/USD now at 1.43864, which is 38.2 based on Friday's European High. This level represents about +50 pips.
EUR/USD plot on 1-hour chart for extension:
Low = 1.43194
High = 07:00 1.43683
138.2 = 1.43870 (just hit)
161.8 = 1.43985
Attached EUR/USD 30-min shows 161.8 extension hit price of 1.4398, and closed right at that price with 14:00 candle. When we look at the 15-min, we can see candles close right at the 148.2 and 161.8 extensions.
The session color is shaded when New York opens overlaps into Euro session.
After EUR/USD made its 161.8 extension per last post, we saw pair dip down along with USOIL.
Chart on left is EUR/USD 1-hour which shows yellow fibo fan's 61.8 hold its ground as support, just above white 38.2% horizontal fib.
Chart on right is 30-min USOIL. We can see it break aforementioned support of 97.97 (blue horizontal line ) and head straight to the next support of 96.35 (blue horizontal line). This area is also the 138.2 extension and Moon 270 intersecting Mars 90-degree.
We'll post a chart on correlations between instruments.
The bounce up from support per last post is running into resistance at the 1.4417 area. The attached chart has 4 charts of S&R.
Moon and Mars intersect on upper right chart.