A-B-C-D Trade - page 300
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As we usher in the European session opening, let's review a short opportunity earlier that is shown on a demo account.
Split-screen chart has 30-min with session colors and MML on left, and 1-hour PSQ9 with Stoch OBOS on the right.
Our last post contained the 5-wave down and and 3-wave up. We now show the 1-hour with the Stoch OBOS candles set on 13,5,5.
We had a fib plot based on Apr 15th 23:00/ Apr 16th 06:30 High/Low. This made the top during yesterday's U.S. session approximately a 178.6% extension.
As the U.S session was coming to an end, we anticipated some profit taking. We plotted a fib retracement on the 1-hour,
The peak met resistance Mars 90 (1.3135) and Moon 270-degree intersection during the 17-22:00 period. This was the SELL ZONE.
2 S/L options. One would be tight, just above the day's high and the 7/8th MML of 1.3153. The other was just above the Apr 13th 11:00 high of 1.3173.
S/L1 = 1.3157 Risk = 22 pips
S/L2 = 1.3177 Risk = 42 pips
TP1 = 23.6% retrace fib 1.3110 + cushion = 1.3115 Reward = 20 pips
TP2 = 38.2% retrace fib 1.3088 + cushion = 1.3093 Reward = 42 pips
In this case, we decided to exit (03:30) at the 23.6% instead of tightening the S/L. Gain = 20 net pips.
The decline did reach the 38.2, and upon Euro open, moved strong to the upside allegedly driven by French President Sarkozy comments.
Cluster of economic data ahead, including Euro Zone CPI and German Zew.
Here is the view from the 4-Hour time-frame, with Mars, HAM_T3, and Stoch OBOS.
We can see the strong decline from Apr 3rd, and subsequent choppiness thereafter. The 1st white vertical line points to a Doji candle on Apr 12th 20:00, in the Harami position.
This means the Doji was within the boundaries of the previous candle, which is also referred to as an inside bar. Traders see this as one type of confirmation of a possible reversal.
The Mars 135-degree also acted as resistance. Price declined 2 Mars levels to end the week.
USD strength at this week's open drove price below the Mars 0-degree level. The Apr 16th (Tuesday) pivot is highlighted by the 2nd white vertical line. This 04:00 candle had a small-body Doji.
This reversal to the upside was explained on the recent post with an intra-day view.
We can see the featured short trade today decline to the top of the T3 candles that acted as support, prior to the pop back up.
Since there are several versions of the Square of Nine, we'd like to clarify some details and application.
The attached split-screen EUR/USD has SQ9(Price) on the left (1-hour) and PSQ9 on the right using Mars at 45-degree intervals (4-hour).
We used a recent high from April 12th 17:00 as the StartPrice input for SQ9(Price), and direction down. The difference now is that we have a pinpoint start price for this peak.
On the PSQ9, it is not exact, but can be adequate most of the time.
The market moves respecting these Gann intervals as S&R. We just need to pick a top or bottom for the StartPrice input.
We can see that on the SQ9(Price) chart, price respected the 22.5 and 45-degree interval levels en route down. It reversed near the 180-degree.
The reversal back up went to the 45-degree, and then dipped down to the 90-degree level. One more rise popped up to the 45-degree yesterday during the 08:00 period.
These swing changes (pivots) were at or very near key Gann intervals 45, 90, and 180.
***
For larger spacing between levels, use the version SQ9 22.5 Factor 56.
***
The automated version is the Gann_SQ9 indicator, which uses zig-zags to measure the swings and apply the degree levels. If you insert this indicator now, it will have the same levels as the PSQ9(Price) on the left chart.
The Gann_SQ9 has more, as it starts the levels with each new swing, while retaining the old levels from old swings (up to 3 swings back).
Adjusting the time-frame can produce measurements from different peaks.
Bounce traders at the EUR/USD 90-degree area, same as yesterday's 06:00 pivot
TP1 = 1.3107 minus cushion, which is the 02:30 pivot low.
GBP data ahead at 08:30
3-way split screen. Left is 15-min session colors with fib plot using High = 1.31264 Low = 1.30861.
Middle chart is the same 1-hour SQ9(Price) chart post3d earlier. It uses fib plot High = 1.31467 Low = 1.29937
Chart on the right is 1-hour PSQ9 with Stoch OBOS candles and same fib plot as middle chart.
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Very straight forward bounce opportunity on revisit of Apr 17th low, and near 90-degree on SQ9(Price).
TP1 has been met, with probe above.
Key GBP data at 08:30 prompts some profit taking on cross-correlation on EUR/GBP, which drags EUR/USD.
Here's an update on last charts. We added the Gann_SQ9 to the chart on the right.
On the 1-hour, it automatically plots swing from the Apr 17th 09:00 high 1.31714.
The 07:00 pivot low was at the 67.5-degree 1.3086 precisely. The Apr 17th low was at that swings 45-degree.
The 3rd update on the 3-chart split-screen EUR/USD.
Left: We can see the intra-day swings. After TP ahead of 08:30 GBP data, pair reversed to the downside to make a 161.8% extension.
Upon open of U.S. session, it reversed to the upside, touching the 127.2.
Middle chart: Moved High of fib plot to 1.31714. This gave us retrace levels.
Right chart: The Gann_SQ9 on the 1-hour produced levels on downswing from 1.31714. Price action respected each level, 45, 67.5, and the 90-degree precisely where reversal occurred during the 12:00 candle period.
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Opportunities included:
Trading between 45 and 90-degree levels (that involve trading through 08:30 data) for about 50 pips.
Bounce up off 1.3089, per last commentary, for about 12-15 pips.
Scalp between 5/8th and 4/8th MML (left chart)
Scalp between 0% and 161.8% extension to downside (left chart)
Retrace from top 1.31714 to 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8% levels (see middle chart).
Reversal/bounce off 90-degree level as shown on the Gann_SQ9 chart furthest to the right. This pivot level is also the 61.8% retrace as seen in the middle chart, as well as near the 4/8th MML as seen in the chart furthest to the left (which was the 161.8 extension).
TP1 = 1.3107 minus cushion, which is the 02:30 pivot low.GBP data ahead at 08:30
Now since the Euro is finding Support on the Spain bonds auction completed we can see a Bullish phase soon.
EUR/USD traded in tight range ahead of the European session.
Traders jockeyed for position at European open, and ahead of 08:30 Spanish and 09:00 French debt auction. The rise in EUR/USD early session may have been at least partially attributed to the positive Spanish bond trading "at that particular moment".
Attached is EUR/USD 30-min with session colors and MML. Fib plotted off yesterday's European Low/high of 1.3057/1.3136.
Today's early Euro session rise touched the 138.2% extension during the 08:30 period. Thereafter, landscape was littered with data through 14:30.
Double bottom included long-legged Doji, or Hammer on the 11:30 candle.
The tighter fib plot (not shown) uses Asian Low 1.3104 and Euro High 1.3165. This produced 161.8% to downside = 1.3067, which was the 11:30 pivot low.
On the 1-hour, 12:00 candle was a long-legged Doji.
Negative U.S Jobless data at 12:30 propelled rise (hitting the 7/8th MML), and negative European Confidence at 14:00 drove pair to retrace to current European session closing.
Tight window between 13:00 - 14:00 for the day trader with small S/L, while avoiding data release.