A-B-C-D Trade - page 305
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Haven't posted one of these in a while. Attached is a 30-min chart with Planetary SQ9 using Moon and Mars at 45-degree intervals.
Week starting May 20th had a 2nd peak of BAJA bearish divergence during the May 21st 01:30 candle period,
We aligned the fib channel tool to the diagonal Moon 225 and Moon 270-degree levels (pink). This generated a 31.4% expansion level to the upside as resistance.
The 50% expansion is the same as the previous week's Moon 315, and can be used for S/L.
The horizontal aqua blue trendline is aligned to show May 14-15th support at 1.2814, and becomes resistance for this short opportunity.
Entry at first touch to the 31.4 or after 01:30 candle period closes (1.2809).
S/L = 1.2823
TP1 1.2760 (diagonal aqua blue extends previous week's Moon 270)
TP2 = 1.2740 (current Moon 225)
TP 3 = 1.2726 (Mars 225 and 50% horizontal retrace fib).
R/R to TP1 = 45/14 and ratio 3.2:1
R/R to TP2 = 65/14 and ratio 4.6:1
R/R to TP3 = 80/14 and ratio 5.7:1
Here's a pic of the bounce off 1.26229 , which occurred during the 06:00 period. Price is now near last week's close (high) gap 1.25170.
We had used the SQ9(Price) indicator downward with the start price of 1.26229, to generate the S&R levels in a 22.5-degree interval.
This guides trader for TP options en route down. For example, the 45-degree level of 1.25668 was respected as support 08:00-12:00. Trading to this level gained about 50 net pips.
Considering the significance of the 1.26229 (year's low until last week's breach), a tight S/L was reasonable. However, this was the 2nd revisit.
Note that today is a holiday in America.
The disastrous Facebook IPO had (of course) some unethical manuervering behind the scenes, which was to the disadvantage of the small investors.
The Tragedy of Facebook: How Wall Street Robbed Main Street America (FB)
***
Media darling Jamie Dimon CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase was exposed recently, as one of the company's hedge techniques have racked up billions is losses. He has also been strongly opposed to new bank regulation to limit/eliminate banks from gambling with tax payer dollars. Here's are scathing articles on that.
Mo. Prof.: 'JPMorgan Runs The World's Largest Gambling Operation' - Forbes
Not mentioned in this article, if we recall correctly, is that the JPM's risk manager came from another company that was reprimanded by the government for some sort of infraction he was involved with. He happens to be related to another JPM executive, and therefore landed on his feet with this new job..
The Risky Risk Management Practices at JPMorgan Chase - Forbes
JPMorgan's whale in a fishpond: John Kemp | Reuters
Couple of charts on EUR/USD with various tools including the fib time zones, and QTA.
Using 30-min chart as seen on right of split-screen, plot for the FTZ is high-to-high May 21st 19:30 and May 23rd 13:00
The 2nd plot high-to-high is May 24th 14:00 and May 25th 08:00.
Cluster is at May 28th 08:00, which was the pivot on pullback prior to 178.6% extension to downside. 2 other pivots caught.
The left chart is 1-hour using a tighter plot for the FTZ: May 28th 06:00 and May 28th 14:00. This time is had success, but these tight plots aren't usually very consistent.
This is a continuance of the last chart, except we replaced the Stoch OB/OS candles with Gann Activator Bars (GAB), inserted HAMA_T3, and used the 1-hour time-frame.
The yellow arrows are the former fib time zone/QTA plot turning points. The blue arrows are derived from the new QTA plots:
High-to-high (HH) May 28th 06:00 and May 229th 08:00
Low-to-low (LL) May 25th 13:00 and May 29th 00:00
The blue turning points labeled were 4 out of the 5 clusters (cluster = when both plots have fib expansions in the same area of time) that also has support or resistance (S&R).
3 of the turning points were at the HAMA_T3, and thus were opportunities to rejoin the downtrend, or stay in the SELL trade. These happened at:
May 29th 21:00, May 30th 07:00, and May 30th 11:00
Currently, price at the Moon 180-degree support 1.2379. Trading to that level from the 3 entries has results displayed below.
The first set of numbers are the range of the HAMA_T3 candles. The low is the entry and the high is the stop-loss. Add spread/cushion.
1) 1.2501/1.2523 R/R = 115/27 Ratio = 4.3:1
2) 1.2473/1.2492 R/R 87 /24 Ratio = 3.6:1
3) 1.2458/1.2480 R/R 72/27 Ratio = 2.7:1
Today's 12:30 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (May) missed consensus by a wide margin. Spike up and whipsaw of 170 pips. This event was shortly followed by negative U.S. ISM Manufacturing data at 14:00.
Sellers still pushed pair down from peak of 1.2457. Attached is a 15-min chart with Andrew's Pitchfork plot:
Handle = June 1st 01:00 low 1.2323
Upper corner = June 1st 13:30 high1.2457
Lower corner = June 1st 12:45 low 1.2287
The confirmation of plot came during the 13:45 and 14:00 candles when the Upper_ML1 respected as support after initial decline. We now see middle fork acting as support for the moment.
The SQ9(Price)5760 indicator with StartPrice = 1.6038 (significant historic high) provides horizontal S&R. The 2768-degree intersects the APF middle fork.
This indicator was adjusted to add more levels since the StartPrice distance is large.
Gold up, along with recent surge in USD, as flight to safety environment evident.
edit add: 2nd chart with horizontal fibs.
Since the plot can be often uncertain, let's look at a way to put down a set of rules.
30-minute time-frame.
Turn on the chart's "period separators", which partitions each day with vertical lines, by right clicking on chart, selecting properties, and checking "Show period separators".
For Point 1 of plot, use the Sunday/Monday high or low.
For Point 2 of plot, use the first candle of a particular day in the same week. This would be Tues through Friday.
Example 1
Point 1 = Jan 20th 21:30 GMT low, which complies with Sun/Mon high or low.
Point 2 = Friday Jan 27th 00:00 GMT.
Optional use of a 50% level between mid-channel and lower channel. Apply the fib channel tool, with 50% as input level.
This sets up Friday.s S&R levels:
BUY 07:30 close at 50% level
SELL 10:30 hit to mid-channel
BUY 13:30 hit to 50% level
Example 2
Point 1 = May 28th 06:30 high, which is the highest price during Sunday/Monday.
Point 2 = May 30th 00:00 GMT, which is the Wednesday opening candle period.
Add HAMA_T3 indicator.
We can see the previous day, Tuesday, comply with the SDC's upper, lower, and mid-channel levels. This give us confidence moving forward after Wed 00:00.
On Wednesday, price dipped briefly and but rebounded to make a hit to the mid-channel 1.2476 during the 06:00 period This is where the HAMA_T3 also resided.
This was 1 of 2 such SELL opportunities. A revisit of the mid-channel occurred during the 11:00 period.
If either of these 2 SELL positions were kept beyond the lower channel, we can get additional support by using the fib channel tool.
Aligning the fib channel tool to the SDC's mid and lower level, we arrive at a 50% level that acted as support 19:00 and later, as price consolidated.
Price stayed between these diagonal levels of S&R, even through most of today's (Friday's) activity associated with U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls.
Move the fib channel plot to mid-channel and upper channel, and we arrive at the 100% expansion capturing today's peak price whipsawed after NFP.
We placed an up arrow at the pullback into the HAMA_T3 and mid-channel support 1.2358 during 14:30.
Handle = June 1st 01:00 low 1.2323
Upper corner = June 1st 13:30 high1.2457
Lower corner = June 1st 12:45 low 1.2287
*****
The Andrew's Pitchfork plot conveyed last Friday (above) is attached on a 5-min time-frame. Note that you'll need to add the AML_v1-1 for interior fibs. We posted SQ9 StartPrice as well, for horizontal S&R.
After the post-NFP dramatic rise, price retraced down to the Lower_ML1 1.2394 during the 14:55 period.
We added the Ehler's Fisher Transform (cross-over version) as trigger. The four cross-over entries are marked with arrows at opening price of 15:10 (buy), 16:15 (sell), 17:10 (buy), and 18:35 (sell).
A red trendline utilizes the two pivot lows of 14:55 and 16:55 candles for additional support to guide last two trade opportunities.
Split screen with left chart 15-min session colors and MurreyMath1.0 (MML).
Breakout of Asian Low 1.24905 now meeting support (red horizontal) from yesterday 1.24706.
Chart on left is 1-hour PSQ9 and QTA which contained cluster at 23:00/00:00 (arrow). The 00:00 time coincided with hit to Moon 225 and Mars 45-degree intersection.
Our TP just above the 4/8th MML now on approach.
As EUR/USD has hit our conservative TP at the 4/8th MML level of 1.2451, pressure on EUR returns and this move during European open seeking more.
The Asian Low was the same as the Mars 0-degree level. Price now approaching next level below - the Mars 315, intersected by the Moon 135-degree.
Here's an article on George Soros' latest opinion on the Euro. We made mention many months ago that austerity programs, particularly with Greece would actually make the situation worse.
BBC News - George Soros says three months to save the euro