Do Forex Robots Really work? - page 3
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Actually having worked for an IB on a trading desk, the majority of volume put through all markets now days is algo-based even if it comes from a "manual" decision, i.e.....I want to get long cable for 50m based on fading a fed announcement, I would use a "slice, hide & chase" algo, splitting the order across 7-8 dealers and constantly posting on the bid and lifting the offer within set parameters, all done automatically, it's not even possible for a human to do this manually, that being said robots do work, just not the one's you see joe forex pumping, which unfortunately is the majority of those available...
Would you trade millions on autopilot from Bluto and Steinitz?
no, I dont need too, although my robot lost 7/7 trades today ! so I might have been better off doing so !
The problem isn't entirely that Forex trading robots don't work, it's our attitude and mindset behind how we make decisions.
For example, people tend to go for Forex robots that have high winning percentages but get teeny tiny wins, and when they lose they lose weeks or even months of profits. Is that entirely the robots fault? Well, not really if you think about it, because you decided to buy the system knowing that it had that risk profile.
Another thing is that people talk about Forex robots not working. What about our part of the work? For example, choosing the right markets, choosing the right timeframes, choosing the right money management strategy. These are all essential parts that coincidentally, most "My Robot Doesn't Work" traders don't do. Maybe we should say that we don't work, but who is going to admit that?
Let's stop buying into the hype and empty promises of "set-and-forget" systems. There's a substantial responsibility on our part too to make sure we are profitable.
Thad
Another thing is that people talk about Forex robots not working. What about our part of the work? For example, choosing the right markets, choosing the right timeframes, choosing the right money management strategy. These are all essential parts that coincidentally, most "My Robot Doesn't Work" traders don't do. Maybe we should say that we don't work, but who is going to admit that?
I'm broadly in agreement with most of what you say, but I have noticed a growing trend amongst those selling these things to allow the user to adjust a bewildering array of parameter settings.
If the developer fully discloses the method, then maybe an experienced trader might just be ableto benefit from this. The problem is that most designers DONT expose details of the method at all, so being able to adjust parameters is as much use as tits on a fish !
There's even the ridiculous situation of a secondary market emerging where various internet marketing scum / scroats sell subscriptions that alledgedly provide "optimised parameter settings" for the various crappy EA's out there that are being sold. This sort of walk forward optimiation of settings is completely pointless really (and there's a growing body of research out there that suggest fading these settings would probably be a better strategy)
I trade almost exclusively with robots these days, and its a huge amount of work, in fact way more work than trading a manual discretionary method, but I do feel that if someone buys a robot, then the very least they can expect is not to have to configure 1001 parameter settings. At the most maybe setting trading hours, and position size, and that should be it really.
The main problem is that mot people dont know if their robot are working or not !
there is no forex robot that will work on long run
there is no forex robot that will work on long run
why ?
Mines worked perfectly fine for the last 8 years.
I've backtested it over decades of data across a number of markets and it always worked in the past.
If it stops working (which it probably wont as it self optimises) I'll stop using it
Who are you?Reincarnation of Steinitz?
I've had a pretty tough month, but things havnt got quite that bad yet
Noone would want it anyway
Imagine getting days and days of losses and drawdowns and loads of false moves in the market due to crisis after crisis and down grades.
80% of the time I'm either losing money, or making back money that I lost previously. Thats the reality of trading for a living.
I dont know a single profitable trader or money manager who does not experience the same.
By that statement you admit not to make money , like Steinitz..Here we go peddle some EAS.Ha H a Ha
Not at all, it simply means I'm only making new equity highs less than 20% of the time. I make rather a lot of money thanks
Every other trader that I've ever worked with experiences the same thing (except guys who post on forums and never have a losing trade).
You can get an almost 50% strike rate at 1:1 by tossing a coin. Identifying direction slightly better than 50% is easy enough, reducing the size of your average loss is pretty simple, increasing the ize of your average gain isnt rocket science either. That's all you have to do.
The closer your stop loss and wider your target, the lower your hit rate becomes , this can easily drop to 25 % hit rate.It isn't that easy.
Well of course, that's bleedin obvious !
The thing people dont seam to realise is you dont need that much of an edge to make money. Take a look at how fast you can destroy an account by trading a random strategy. The broker is able to destroy the account simply through spread.
Actually it is that easy, but doing it is far more work than most are prepared to do.