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Forecast and levels for GBP - page 6

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.01 14:57

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY: Non-Farm Employment Change

2017-09-01 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 189K
  • forecast data is 180K
  • actual data is 156K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 156,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, construction, professional and technical services, health care, and mining."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events



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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.03 10:25

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "The British Pound had a much better week at the end of August. It rallied against the US Dollar both before and after Friday’s weaker-than-expected payrolls data, and it firmed against the Euro both before and after signs emerged that the European Central Bank may not announce a decision on reducing its monetary stimulus program for the Euro-Zone economy until October at the earliest because of the Euro’s strength. The week ahead is another relatively quiet one for economic data but it will be interesting to see whether the construction and service-sector PMIs on Monday and Tuesday also come in better than expected ahead of Friday’s batch of official data on industrial production, construction output and international trade."


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.04 11:05

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: United Kingdom Markit/CIPS Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and range price movement 

2017-09-04 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Construction PMI]

  • past data is 51.9
  • forecast data is 52.1
  • actual data is 51.1 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Construction PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the construction industry. 

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From official report :

  • "August survey data indicated that the UK construction sector continued to experience a slowdown this summer. Reduced levels of commercial work were a key source of weakness, which offset robust growth in residential building. There were also signs of a sustained soft patch ahead, with new business volumes falling for the second month running. Survey respondents linked subdued demand to reduced business investment and heightened economic uncertainty. As a result, construction firms exerted greater caution in terms of their staff hiring, with employment numbers rising at the slowest pace since July 2016."
  • "At 51.1 in August, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI® ) remained above the 50.0 no-change threshold for the twelfth month running. However, the latest reading was down from 51.9 in July and pointed to the weakest overall UK construction performance since August 2016. A key reason for the slowdown was a lack of new orders to replace completed projects, according the survey respondents."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.K. Construction PMI news event 


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GBPUSD IS FLAT?

adeyjet4, 2017.09.07 08:33

Gbpusd buy since Tuesday but, now sturdy since morning. Is it trying reverse? Trader, be watchful.

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.09 07:30

Weekly GBP/USD Outlook: 2017, September 10 - September 17 (based on the article)


"Looking ahead to the coming week, after the focus on the dollar and the euro over the last couple of weeks, it is the turn of the pound to be in focus in the coming week as we have the CPI data and the rate announcement and statement from the BOE. We also have the CPI and PPI data from the US in the coming week and a combination of all these should guarantee a lot of volatility in the GBPUSD pair. The price is now in a key region and  clean and clear break through 1.3260 should carry the pair towards 1.34 and 1.35 while a dovish BOE is likely to push the pair back towards 1.30."

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.12 08:45

GBP/USD - intra-day bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels waiting for the strong trend to be started (based on the article)

H4 price is located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within 1.3223 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing and 1.3158 support level for the secondary correction to be started.


  • "For GBP-weakness plays, traders may want to look away from the U.S. Dollar. The back-breaking down-trend in the U.S. Dollar could add complication to such strategies, and in order to sell GBP, traders may be better served by matching up what could be a weak British Pound with a currency that has recently displayed some element of strength, such as the Euro. EUR/GBP is closing in on what could be a very interesting level for such strategies around the .9000-area on the pair. "
  • "For GBP-strength, traders will likely want to exercise some patience here. One potential option is looking for higher-low support around 1.3117 in GBP/USD. The key to such an approach will be confirming that support is actually showing at the level, rather than buying on the first print below. But if this doesn’t show up, traders may have to contend with a short-term breakout. To approach such a scenario, traders can first let this batch of resistance around 1.3250 give way before plotting longer-term bullish approaches. Just above this resistance is a potentially huge zone around 1.3500, which has some historic implications for the pair. This level had helped to set the ‘Financial Collapse’ low for more than seven years (until Brexit came into the equation), and just 22 pips below we have the 50% retracement of the ‘Brexit move’ in GBP/USD. This could be an idea level to look for a near-term higher-high to prelude a higher-low support entry. Higher low support at 1.3350 or 1.3250 could be accommodative for longer-term bullish exposure in GBP."


Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud for the bullish reversal: the price is testing resistance level at 1.3297 for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels.


Weekly price is breaking Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. If the price breaks 1.3267 resistance to above on weekly close bar so we may see the reversal of the weekly price movement to the primary bullish market condition.


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.13 14:35

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD: U.S. Producer Price Index

2017-09-13 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report :

  • "The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices edged down 0.1 percent in July and moved up 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in August."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events


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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events



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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.14 13:21

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Interest Rate Decision and range price movement 

2017-09-14 12:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

  • past data is 0.25%
  • forecast data is 0.25%
  • actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight. 

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From official report :

  • "Bank Rate held at 0.25%, government bond purchases at £435bn and corporate bond purchases at £10bn"

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by BoE Interest Rate Decision news event 

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Arrows on the chart above = BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download).


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