I know the perfect way to win at forex - page 7

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zupcon:

You have to admit that there are massive psychological differences between someone who does reasonable due dilligence, conducts research and testing, tries to manage risk, and treats this as a business, and some fool undercapitalised, leveraged at 400:1 taking a punt on a martingale EA they purchased off eBay !

The reason both those people behave an think differently is surely a matter of their own personal psychology.

There is psychology, of course there is.

But it seems the actual "wording" in some of these posts is getting misunderstood or misconstrued.

Zupcon and Mirq's recent psychology remarks were in reference to those that fail at trading. As if they are "pre-programmed" to simply lose.

As I understood, that simply meant that those people have no choice in the matter because their "beings" are essentially constructed and/or hardwired to always lose. A supernatural phenom in other words.

 
mirq:
I understand why you're scratching your head, but not why you are laughing. I am not so disperate or poor to make it an art from making money. But I am the kind of person that wants to understand from ground what's behind things. And forex is something that is a big challenge, not for the money, but for the thrill of hacking it.

You are in this forum from may 2010

and have 31 posts. I like genius like you.

...LOL...

 
mirq:
Or, I think so.

I am very novice at Forex, so almost every trade is a loss. So knowing that, I could trade against myself. It is doable, by means of EAs.

The only problem is a psychological one. I should be convinced that I want to win trades when I trade.

Is there any thread where smbdy played with this ideea ? Please let me know if there is one, I don't want to lose my time.

Thanx

Hi Mirq,

Even though you are a novice what you say makes absolute sence and has been proven in a scientific setup.

(please sit down take a beer or a cup of coffee and read this posting carefully)

BUT...

There are 2 different way to look at this.

1) Many many people in the past have played and tested the idea to turn a losing system into a winning system.

If you have a 100% mechanical system you just turn a buy into a sell and a sell into a buy. For people who have programming knowledge that is an easy thing to do.

But this trick shows always the same result that this turning the system upside down is also leading to an overall loss. The reason for this is the very same as the casino.

The casino always wins because of the mathematical edge they create. If you play black or red on the roulette table and the ball fals on zero you lost your money no matter if you played black or red.

The same goes for trading. Brokers do run anway with a lot of money. Even if you think it is only 2-3 pips.

Most systems you will find on forex are scalping systems. They go for very small profits 10-20 pips. But if you check out the results then one will see that those systems will only make 2-3 pips on the average trade. Because losses come also into play and if you take each trade you will see that each trade (not avg winning trade but average trade) has no more then 2-3 pips profit. So the smallest bit of slipage you have and you can already forget it.

2) The second possibility is that people loos money because they do the opposite of what they should do. They should let their profits run and cut their losses short. Instead amateurs and newbies let their losses run out of hand. After having many big losses the moment that they have a trade that is a little bit in profit they close their position so they want to have the feeling that they can make a little bit of profit. So the profits never cover the losses.

In tests when they let those kind of people trade and without them knowing (that is very important that they can not know about this) and change the buttons in such a way that the short button becomes the long button and the long button becomes the short button and they still see the profits they make as losses then indeed those people succeeded to make enormous amounts of money.

More interesting is the moment that they were informed that their buttons were changed and the losses they made were profits that immedialty this changes their behaviour and the profits became the losses again.

Even with apes as test case the result were the same. There is a woman who made a study on it with apes. Their is a video about this subject on ted.com (sorry I lost the precise link to it)

That is a very interesting conclusion one can make.

99% of the people who trade are losing money. So if you are awere of this then you will start to realize that if you do the opposite of what you would normally do or what others would do then this starts to become a turning point in your trading career.

Personally I would never buy when I clearly see price going up and would never sell when I see price going down.

Conclusion: if you do everything you feel you should do when you look to a chart then realize that 99% of the other people do exactly the same thing as you do and that they loos money on the long term.

But in the overall majority of the systems, if you try to turn around a losing system into a winning system it will become again a losing system because brokers are a very important player.

There are thousands of systems that are very profitable on paper and that would make you a ton of money the moment that you do not need to pay spread anymore

Friendly regards... FXiGoR

 

/[/

mirq:
what's behind things.[?]

Something that is on the other side of a vast chasm and void.

 

I think that what Mirq is saying is that he sucks at trading and that might actually help him. Whatever he thinks is a good trade, he would do it on a demo account and because he sucks so much and probably loose on that trade then he would do the opposite trade on a live account and maybe win.

it's not a bad idea really. He should probably try it on 2 demo first tho.

 
Bongo:
You are in this forum from may 2010

and have 31 posts. I like genius like you.

...LOL...

Well, have I survived enough without being banned ?

 

Not working

Well guys, it's not working.

The problem is that when you win in the demo account say 100 dollars, you lose 100 + 2*spread in your real account. Or, begginers tend to trade as scalpers, or worse as guerillas. Begginers use to win 5-10 pips in a trade. Meaning they lose 7-12 in the other account. And when they lose 10 pips in the demo, they win 10 - 2* spread in the real, which is bad. Eventually the two accounts will reach a state of equillibrum, both of them with negative balance.

This strategy fails for two reasons: many trades initiated by beginners which means many double spread differencies and the inequity of losses vs wins, which doesn't occur in a regular trading system.

 

DID you know , not all DEMO account created the same

i.e. some broker, offer more real demo account : the entry and exit got close to the true experience, while others got ease out the price when you exit etc

some other broker, use the demo account to lure you in

and everyone of us should have at least 2 to 3 successful demo account, and at least 8 months demo experience, before putting the real money, same apply to micro, but less money, make your decision more LOGICAL

=== I don't like fxcm TRUE spread cost, but I like their demo accounts offer, in their web site (but damn, I pay lot of real money to blow one real, before having plenty of their demo for practicing how hard is forex )

HACK it, you must be kidding, those motion, must be well researched by cisco router, hard to win consistently

but we could bring our charting skill over to stock for major blue chip later, I just wish that , time well spend and realise money won't fall like raining

NO one person will be good in minute to minute trading

so classify all the different market scenario and know the seasonal candle pattern, after LOT (1 lot each time) of practice and realise your strength and what type of strategy and templates that you are suitable for

only trade the SCENARIO, TF, indicators that you are good at -- but you have to treat the DEMO account like your own piggy bank balance == I think this is the SURE WAY to win money in forex, and avoid all other 90% scenarios , unlike video game, not more you practice, you get better !!

we are watching either turtle in a ring or rabbit out of a ranch -- the movement pattern are like that !! in forex

and I think big broker don't instantly clear your entries and exit

but accumulate them and clear the NET amount in 2 to 3 big certain move of that day -- still LEGAL and perfectly accounting responsible though

 

http://www.knowledgebase-script.com/demo/article-956.html

I like ignor point #2

maybe trade in extremities when the market not appear to be trendy that week, just trade one, got enough hedging to cover the loss -- could be way to go -- 1 trade for that pair that day, I guess, in few hours time, You could try it on one more pair, if that pair go over sell , over buy for some time

and the way that the market price stop these days , also will mislead you to think

so maybe better to enter with limit order some pips above or some pips below

=== reverse trading explanation is interesting -- as it is hard for me to start

better to write it down , and have so much determination to reverse it on the reverse of what is write down on demo -- but how long can you hold this strategy, if you hold it [do the reverse thing] for 2 weeks, continuously, then you have the potential to reverse trade

I did try it with 2 demo accounts too, but it is also tough to start, and so much troubles to manage 2 -- one do the normal thing, another do the reverse of normal thing

maybe we have to accept that we are not qualify to trade forex, after all , and happy that we don't put additional real money into forex,

1 or 2 real account money loss is the entrance fees for unlimited demo account afterward

===

currently , I am testing setting 2 OCO on 1 pair instead of using TP and SL

got some success in it, at least, break even are the norm now

 
iGoR:
2) The second possibility is that people loos money because they do the opposite of what they should do. They should let their profits run and cut their losses short. Instead amateurs and newbies let their losses run out of hand.

That makes sence. And is one of the reasons why you can't turn a loser's performance into a winning strategy just by switching the sides. If you try to do it you will end up with a strategy that has limited profit and unlimited risk.

But if there is someone, who consistenly loses in a long period of time, without peaks beyound a standard deviation, and if the trades are above intra-day (20-30 pips), theh you have the real deal.

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