A big truth about forex - page 4
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Is forex(or markets in total) random?I dont' think so.But it is lively.Like every lively one in this universe, it is constantly changing and adapting to the conjuncture(enflation,recession etc.) it is in .İt can not act independently than the universe.So it is designed to live within boundaries(or math) of universe.
To make it short, like medical science,there are only probabilities, no certainties in the markets...
hi
hi mystified
i like your explanation
____________everything is possible............................
rg
lodol
It is quite amazing to see that the majority of the people "believe" that the markets are not random.
If the opposite of random is predictable how comes that the same people don't have a system or indicator that can predict the market moves.
It means also that that majority of people believes that there is a system or indicator out there that can predict the market but that they still have not found it. It also means that they will spend (or waste) a lot more time to find that system or indicator.
It is also strange that those people don't realize that there are thousands of people over the years here on this forum and on moneytec and on FF and on trade2win and thousand of other forums in other countrys and forums that are interested in other markets such as the ER or ES or the YM or the BUND or the QM or stocks or options etc that have spend all together millions of hours to find such a system or indicator and did not find it.
But still they believe it exists or is somewhere out there.
Instead of using a little bit of common sence and use the opposite logic. Meaning that as long as they did not find that system or indicator, to accept that there is no system or indicator that can predict the markets.
And it is not because one has a trend following system that is highly profitable that one has a system that can predict the markets. That is because they use their MM in such a way (the size of the S/L and the size of the T/P) that one has a highly profitable system but again that is not the same as having a system that on itself can predict the market.
If you want to proof that you have a system or indicator that can predict the market moves or cycles then the only way to do this is with a system that has a hitrate that is clearly higher then 50% and a net T/P that is at least equal or bigger then the net S/L and on different markets and over longer periods of time.
I say net because there are systems out there that come very close on doing so but the moment you add the spread then the edge is completely gone. One can easely say that the spread that one has to pay is the same as the zero on a roulette table or the edge that casino's have, and makes it that the brokers always win. No matter that you have a losing or winning trade.
If you still don't have such a system but still going to look for it, I wish you lots of luck and even more patience on your quest.....
Regards...iGoR
Honest is honest, if someone would have said to me a couple of years ago that the markets move random, I would also not have accepted that. The main reason would have been that I was working with 3 software packages Metastock Professional, Amibroker and MT4. Looking to charts with a arsenal of more then 500 indicators after reading 20-30 books after spending tens of thousands of hours on develloping my own indicators and programming systems and learning how to trade for many years, easely spotting support and resistance, trend channels, triangles H&S etc and then need to admit that my neighbour could just as reliable predict a move by flipping a coin...it would have made me feel very uncomfortable not to say stupid.
iGoR
Dear Minime,
Being profitable or highly profitable has nothing to do with the markets being random or predictable.
I had this converstation with somebody here on this forum witch I am not allowed to speak out his name anymore. We both agreed that there are people who can have a hitrate of 70% and that with a S/L and T/P that are equal.
That is because of a highly trained eye and trading instinct. I will never doubt that. It is the same as giving paint and brushes and canvas to somebody who will make a beautifull painting.
If one wants to give proof of the fact that markets are predictable then it is by a system with a clear defined set of rules and that over a longer period of time and many different markets. Then the system has to proof 1) that the hitrate is more then flipping a coin reliability of 50% 2) that the net T/P is equal or bigger then the net S/L.
If you want to have a challange that you have a system like that then I will most certainly and highly interested look at it.
A reliable and scientifiec challange would be that on sundays evenings you post on 3 different pairs and 3 other markets like the S&P the OIL and the european BUND market a fixed target witch has the same amount of pips above or bellow the price on sunday evening before the opening and where you will predict what target will be hit first the following week.
For ex. eur/usd is now at 1.3918 the target above would be 1.4018 the target bellow 1.3818. For an S&P mini take 20 points above and 20 points bellow.
If you would have a hitrate that is well over 50% (because flipping a coin is giving 50%) then I will be intented to say that you have a system or indicator that can indeed proof that the markets are not random.
Not because you are highly profitable. I saw your results on metaquotes championship. And it is most certainly a very nice result. My congratulations for that. But it is a result that is based on only taking long trades in a purely bullish market. Not that I minimize your results. Again very nice result but the way your EA was programmed it would have done as bad when price would have been in a very bearish market. So that doesn't proof that the markets are random or predictable.
If you just want to look to it in an academic way then you know that the scientists would say to you OK very nice results but place your system on 10 different markets without changing values or optimizing anything and that over a longer period of time and show a hitrate well over 50% with a T/P that is equal to the S/L.
All the rest is curve fitting and finding "sweet spots" on particular pairs or markets.
If somebody can make a beautifull painting does not proof that we are all artists.
Again and again, what drives the markets or the profits that one makes does not proof that the markets don't move random. Those are totaly different elements.
As in wikepedia is clearly explained that economist have historically accept the random walk theory. I believe that they will have done a serious and reliable and analitic amount of tests. Who are we to say that they are all wrong. Who are we to say that what we can read on wikipedia is a bunch of crap?....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk_hypothesis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk_theory
regards...iGoR
homestudy,
I was going to waste my time with a reply filled with many thoughts. But then I realized why...oh why should I?...
This thread is filled up with so much crap....I wonder if there are any traders here?
Haven't you realized that Cash Forex is a biased game tilted with tools for the dealer to extract money from your little pockets?
You wax philosophical here in this thread and you make believe it is intelligent discourse...
There is not one of you here that is consistently profitable.....But you carry on as if there is legitimate conversation taking place. (If you review the thread authors posts ...dznmrd...throughout this thread, he actually has a clue)
What a waste....
This is a big truth about Forex and self proclaimed legends in their own mind on Internet Forums....
Cash Forex is not legitimate....So why waste your energy?....The dealer controls the quotes you see and the money you deposit. He fills your trades and holds the purse strings without any centralized feed.
The truth hurts homestudy and the sooner you learn about trends, fundementals and randomeness the better....as you will see the fear and the greed that drives your decisions may not be yours at all...
ESWow ES it is clear why you get the love you get.
Enjoy
homestudy,
This is a thread about truth... go to Yahoo for love if your in denial...
ES
Wow ES it is clear why you get the love you get. Enjoy
homestudy,
This is a thread about truth... go to Yahoo for love if your in denial...
ESNo ES it is about your talking down to people and your ego filtering any idea other then your own.
No more time to waste.
Enjoy
I have reviewed your recent posts....
hint: Try posting about trading instead of posters....The facts are the facts....quit disrupting this thread with your personal attacks...
ES
Average people talk about other people
better people discuss events..
Great people discuss ideas
No ES it is about your talking down to people and your ego filtering any idea other then your own.
No more time to waste.
EnjoyDear iGoR,
I understand your point, you are quite right profitable is different story from random or not.
Unfortunately I can not post screen shot of my setup nor I can talk about it, because I use it to make money, however the hit rate in my setup is depend on which method I am using as money management plays a good part in the code , but yes the hit rate in two of my experts is more than 60%.
The championship expert was 1/4 th of the setup that I am currently using, its a small part of the code in one of the 3 experts I am trading, and was only intended for the ACT2008.
A member on TSD offered 20K$ for my setup to market it online , I have asked him is to show that he can protect the code form the decompile , when I realized that he can NOT protect the code and he was shopping around, I have canceled the deal. BTW i have traded his account to prove that money can be made without taking much risk and the process can be 100% automated.
My studies in control design have helped me a lot to again a better perspective on the market, and understand when to trade and when not to.
I don't claim that I know more than others because my coding skills is less than 1 years old and I am still asking my friends how to write few functions, but when I code any experts I take a scientific approach to the problem, I build my codes as if I am building a controller each part have to function correctly otherwise the system wont be stable, and it all starts from chosing the entry conditions.
Its all logic, the problem with most trades is adding indicators because they look nice on the chart .. and thats the wrong approach, I used to do that in the past and it helped me to know which indicator does what but it didn't help me in my trades.
Turst me there are cycles in forex, and by knowing them I am able to make money, we can argue about this but I am trading 10 accounts 5 of them are mine and I make money in all of them, never had a losing month for the last 5 months, so I have to beleive in what works for me.
What I am trying to say is never say never ... keep an open mind about all theories and take whatever works for you.