Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (updated daily) - page 93
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EURUSD
The Euro resumed its larger downtrend which was interrupted by narrow consolidation and eventually broke and close below near-term target at 1.2660, Nov 2012 low. Fresh weakness also probed below psychological 1.26 support, on a dip to 1.2569, new two-year low, with subsequent consolidation hovering around 1.26 handle. Bears remain firmly in play and favor further downside, with no significant supports on the way towards 1.2042, July 2012 low. Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.2042/1.3992 ascend at 1.2502, is seen as immediate target, ahead of 261.8% expansion of the wave from 1.3699 at 1.2360 and, low of May 2012, at 1.2287. Corrective actions are expected to find solid barriers at 1.2700/60 zone
Res: 1.2662; 1.2700; 1.2760; 1.2810
Sup: 1.2600; 1.2569; 1.2502; 1.2450
GBPUSD
Cable’s overall structure is negative and favors further downside, focusing near-term target at 1.6000, psychological support and 50% retracement of larger 1.4812/1.7189 ascend. Descend from 1.6522, 19 Sep high, so far extended to 1.6162, retracing 76.4% of 1.6050/1.6522, coming ticks away from higher low of 16 Sep at 1.6159 and key 1.6050, 10 Sep low, the last obstacle on the way towards 1.6000 target. Corrective rallies were capped under psychological 1.63 barrier, which, should keep the upside protected. Only break above the latter would sideline bears and sparks stronger corrective action.
Res: 1.6200; 1.6228; 1.6285; 1.6300
Sup: 1.6159; 1.6100; 1.6050; 1.6000
USDJPY
Fresh rally has eventually cracked psychological 110 barrier, en-route to near-term target at and 110.66, Aug 2008 peak. Last Friday’s Outside Day candle signaled fresh attempts higher, with clearance of 110.00/ 110.66, to focus 112.67, Fibonacci 76.4% of 124.14/75.55 descend. Higher low at 109.54, offers immediate support, ahead of psychological 109 level, where dips should be contained.
Res: 110.07; 110.66; 111.00; 111.50
Sup: 109.54; 109.12; 109.00; 108.46
AUDUSD
The pair maintains negative tone and moved lower, to nearly fully retrace 0.8658/ 0.9503 rally. Fresh extension below near-term consolidation floor, weakened hourly structure, signaling further weakness below 0.8658, which is expected to open immediate targets at 0.8600, round-figure, then 0.8543, 50% retracement of 0.6007/1.1079 and 0.8519, 138.2% Fibonacci expansion of the third wave from 0.9110. The upside action so far looks limited and is expected to ideally hold below 0.87 barrier. Only break above hold below 0.8760 lower platform, would delay bears.
Res: 0.8700; 0.8730; 0.8760; 0.8800
Sup: 0.8661; 0.8658; 0.8600; 0.8543
EURUSD
The Euro remains bearish overall, with near-term consolidative phase above fresh low at 1.2569 under way. The pair failed for the second day to close below psychological 1.26 level, which, along with yesterday’s Doji candle, signals further hesitation. Strong resistance levels at 1.2700/10, also near 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2900/1.2569 downleg, offer initial barrier, ahead of 1.2735, 50% retracement / 4-hour 55SMA and lower top / Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.2659/73. Lift and daily close above 1.2700/10, reinforced by daily 10SMA, to signal near-term basing attempt and further attempts higher, with clearance of 1.2773, Fibonacci barrier, required to confirm correction. However, bears remain favored, as larger picture technicals are negatively aligned and see room for further easing, despite overextended conditions of daily and weekly chart studies. Immediate target lies at 1.25, psychological support / Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.2042/1.3992 ascend, with the third wave off 1.3699 lower top, capable of travelling to 1.2360, its 261.8% Fibonacci expansion.
Res: 1.2710; 1.2735; 1.2760; 1.2810
Sup: 1.2618; 1.2600; 1.2582; 1.2569
GBPUSD
Cable maintains negative tone and sees further easing favored, with near-term focus at psychological 1.6000 support, also 50% retracement of larger 1.4812/1.7189 ascend. Downleg from 1.6522, 19 Sep high, met its target at 1.6159, 16 Sep higher low, also Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 1.6050/1.6522, coming ticks away from key 1.6050, 10 Sep low, the last obstacle on the way towards 1.6000 target. Corrective rallies were so far capped under psychological 1.63 barrier, which is expected to keep the upside protected. Only break above the latter would delay bears and signal stronger corrective action.
Res: 1.6250; 1.6285; 1.6300; 1.6339
Sup: 1.6170; 1.6159; 1.6100; 1.6050
USDJPY
The pair entered near-term corrective phase after cracking psychological 100 barrier and initial target. Extension below 109 support, signals further easing, as the pair approaches the next breakpoint and higher base at 108/45/25 zone. Yesterday’s Outside Day candle, could be a signal of stronger correction, which requires break below 108.25, to be confirmed. Indicators on 4-hour chart are breaking into negative territory and support negative near-term outlook, as daily indicators started to point lower and RSI came out of overbought territory. Oversold hourly studies, however, see corrective rally in the near-term, with initial barrier at 109.10, session high / Fibonacci 38.2% of 110.07/108.54 downleg / previous low of 29 Sep, followed by 109.30, 50% retracement / hourly 55SMA and 109.49, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 110.07/108.54.
Res: 109.12; 109.30; 109.49; 109.71
Sup: 108.54; 108.46; 108.25; 108.00
AUDUSD
The pair bounces after completing 0.8658/ 0.9503 rally, with gains cracking psychological 0.88 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.8886/0.8660 downleg. Daily 10SMA and 4-hour 55SMA, so far limited rally, with sustained break above 0.8800/20 zone, required to spark stronger bounce and open next significant targets at 0.8900/25. Daily indicators are reversing from oversold territory and support further recovery. Alternatively, renewed downside risk would be expected on confirmation of lower top at 0.8814, session high.
Res: 0.8814; 0.8830; 0.8886; 0.8925
Sup: 0.8780; 0.8757; 0.8721; 0.8700
EURUSD
The Euro has eventually broken initial 1.2700/15 resistance, on a strong rally through three-day congestion tops. Extension above initial barriers at 1.2735/56, 4-hour cloud top / 50% retracement of 1.2993/1.2499 downleg, probes above daily 20 SMA at 1.2760, en-route towards 1.28 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% / round-figure resistance. Firm bullish tone of near-term studies, supports further extension of corrective rally from 1.2500 low, with yesterday’s close for the third consecutive day and daily RSI out of oversold zone, underpinning near-term corrective action, before larger bears re-assert for fresh leg lower. Previous barriers at 1.2700/15, now act as initial supports and should ideally keep the downside protected, while break lower would open 1.2650/20 support zone in extended pullback.
Res: 1.2800; 1.2815; 1.2862; 1.2900
Sup: 1.2758; 1.2715; 1.2700; 1.2680
GBPUSD
The pair extended corrective rally off 1.5950 and probed through psychological 1.62 barrier, also 4-hour cloud base, to mark over 76.4% retracement of 1.6250/1.5950 downleg. Near-term target at 1.6250 is in focus, with positive tone established on near-term studies, signaling bears are sidelined. Regain and break above 1.6250, is required to confirm extended correction scenario. Consolidative action on overbought hourly studies under 1.62 barrier, should be contained above 1.6130/00 supports, previous high / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5950/1.6196 ascend, before fresh attempt higher. Break above 1.62 to open 1.6230, daily 20SMA, ahead of key barrier at 1.6250 lower platform.
Res: 1.6215; 1.6230; 1.6250; 1.6285
Sup: 1.6150; 1.6130; 1.6100; 1.6073
USDJPY
The pair remains under pressure, as corrective rally from fresh low at 107.41, stalled on approach to important 109 barrier and subsequent weakness nearly fully retraced the rally. Yesterday’s Doji candle, with long upper wick, signals increased pressure. Break below 107.41 looks for psychological 107 support and more significant 106.80/64, 16 Sep higher low / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 101.07/110.07 ascend. Near-term studies are negative and favor further easing, with the notion being supported by south-heading daily indicators.
Res: 108.00; 108.30; 108.73; 108.81
Sup: 107.50; 107.00; 106.80; 106.64
AUDUSD
The pair continues to move higher, in extended corrective phase off fresh low at 0.8641, posted on 03 Oct. Clearance of pivotal 0.8825 barrier, 02 Oct high, triggered fresh rally, which broke above daily 20SMA at 0.8867 and came ticks away from pivotal 0.8900, barrier. Sustained break here is required confirm near-term base and open way for stronger correction of the larger downtrend from 0.9400, 05 Sep peak, with immediate target at 0.8931, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9400/0.8641. Hesitation at 0.89 barrier could be expected, with previous barriers at 0.8825/00, now offering solid supports.
Res: 0.8900; 0.8931; 0.8950; 0.9000
Sup: 0.8850; 0.8825; 0.8790; 0.8762
EURUSD
The Euro bounced off 1.2600 zone, low of the last week, where pullback from 1.2790 peak found temporary support. Rally reached 1.27 resistance area and 50% retracement of 1.2790/1.2603 downleg so far, with sustained break here and 1.2720/30, Fibonacci 61.8% / daily 20SMA, required to resume recovery towards 1.2790, recovery peak of 09 Oct and 1.2800, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 1.2993/1.2499 descend. Last Friday’s close in red, sees the downside at risk, as positive weekly close suggests basing attempt, but long upper wick of last week’s candle warns of existing selling pressure. Regain and close above 1.28 resistance zone is required to mark higher low at 1.2603 and signal resumption of near-term recovery from 1.2499, 03 Oct low. Otherwise, increased downside risk will be in play, while the price holds below initial 1.27 barrier.
Res: 1.2695; 1.2720; 1.2790; 1.2800
Sup: 1.2660; 1.2645; 1.2632; 1.2603
GBPUSD
Cable maintains overall negative tone, with last Friday’s close in red, supporting the notion. On the other side, near-term studies are showing signs of improvement, after the price bounced off last week’s low at 1.6000. Regain of levels above 1.61 barrier, requires break above 1.6130 lower platform, to improve 4-hour picture and move indicators from neutrality zone, as hourly studies turned positive. Break higher to signal fresh strength, signaled by positive weekly close and shift focus towards breakpoints at 1.6212/25, daily 20SMA / recovery peak of 09 Oct, with sustained break here to resume recovery attempt off 1.5950, 03 Oct low. Failure to clear initial 1.6130 barrier, would signal prolonged consolidative action, with revived downside risk in play.
Res: 1.6130; 1.6142; 1.6173; 1.6200
Sup: 1.6080; 1.6052; 1.6030; 1.6000
USDJPY
The pair remains under pressure and extended fresh weakness to the upper boundary of strong 107.00/106.80 support zone, round figure support / 16 Sep low. Daily and weekly close in red, signal further weakness and extension of pullback from 110.07, peak of 01 Oct, as near-term studies are negative. Extension below 107.00/106.80 support zone to open immediate support at 106.64, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 101.07/110.07 ascend, ahead of next significant support at 105.57, 50% retracement / daily 55SMA. Corrective rallies should be ideally capped at 108.15, Fibonacci 38.2% of 109.89/107.04 downleg and former consolidation range tops, in order to keep bears intact.
Res: 107.51; 108.15; 108.47; 108.73
Sup: 107.00; 106.80; 106.64; 106.00
AUDUSD
Near-term studies remain weak, as the price action moves just above consolidation range floor at 0.8641, following pullback from last week’s recovery rejection at 0.8896. Last Friday’s close in red, maintains negative tone, with, weekly candle’s long upper wick, showing strong selling pressure. Eventual break below 0.8641, to signal fresh extension of larger downtrend from 1.1079, July 2011 peak, towards 0.8543, 50% retracement of 0.6007/1.1079 ascend. On the other side, prolonged consolidative action could be expected on upside extension above corrective high and session’s high at 0.8748, which also marks Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.8896/0.8650 downleg and is reinforced by descending hourly 55SMA. Only break above 0.8896 would neutralize bears.
Res: 0.8748; 0.8783; 0.8800; 0.8832
Sup: 0.8650; 0.8641; 0.8600; 0.8543
EURUSD
The Euro came under increased pressure, with yesterday’s acceleration lower, erasing most of gains from 1.2603 low to 1.2765, where rally stalled, short of key 1.2790 peak. Negative tone has established on hourly studies and keeps focus at the floor of larger range at 1.2603. With 4-hour indicators turning lower, immediate risk is seen on a break below 1.26 handle, also near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.2499/1.2790 upleg, which would confirm failure swing formation and look for further retracement of 1.2499/1.2790 corrective rally. Yesterday’s close in red and below daily 20SMA, supports near-term negative stance, which requires clear break below 1.2603 support, to confirm an end of near-term directionless mode and bring bears fully in play. Strong support lies at 1.2603, loss of which to open 1.2567, low of 30 Sep and Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 1.2499/1.2790 rally, the last significant obstacle towards key near-term support at 1.2599, 03 Oct low.
Res: 1.2678; 1.2700; 1.2730; 1.2766
Sup: 1.2610; 1.2603; 1.2567; 1.2499
GBPUSD
Cable maintains negative tone and probes below psychological 1.59 support, where the downmove met its 100% Fibonacci expansion of the third wave from 1.6125 lower top. Yesterday’s close in long red candle and completion of 1.5950/1.6225 corrective rally, confirms bears are fully in play for further extension of the downtrend from 1.7189, 13 July peak. Sustained break below 1.59 handle to open 1.5853, Nov 2013 low, with the wave capable of travelling to 1.5823, its 138.2% Fibonacci expansion and double Fibonacci support at 1.5720, 161.8% expansion and 61.8% retracement of larger uptrend from 1.4812 to 1.7189. Previous lows at 1.5950 and 1.6000, offer initial resistances, with stronger rallies expected to be capped under 1.61 barrier, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.6225/1.5875 downleg.
Res: 1.5950; 1.6000; 1.6050; 1.6100
Sup: 1.5875; 1.5853; 1.5823; 1.5800
USDJPY
The pair consolidates above fresh and marginally lower low at 106.65, posted yesterday, where descend met its 38.2% retracement of larger 101.07/110.07 ascend. Consolidative action is under way and faces the first resistance at 107.50 zone, while break above the significant barrier at 108 zone, also near Fibonacci 61.8% of 108.73/106.65 downleg, would sideline bears and signal basing attempt. Hourly studies turned positive, while yesterday’s positive close turned daily indicators towards the upside, which supports near-term action higher, with clearance of initial 107.50 barrier, required to signal stronger recovery and open 108.00/15 breakpoint zone.
Res: 107.56; 107.94; 108.15; 108.31
Sup: 107.00; 106.83; 106.65; 106.00
AUDUSD
The pair remains in directionless mode, with near-term price action being entrenched within 0.8641/0.8896 range. The tone of near-term studies is neutral and requires break of either side to establish fresh direction. On the other side, overall bearish trend sees current consolidation preceding fresh leg lower, as a part of larger downtrend from 2011 peak at 1.1079. Yesterday’s failure to sustain break above psychological 0.88 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.8896/0.8650 downleg, keeps the price action in the lower part of the range.
Res: 0.8785; 0.8812; 0.8832; 0.8896
Sup: 0.8700; 0.8673; 0.8650; 0.8641
GOLD
Spot Gold enters near-term corrective phase, after failing to regain initial 1240 barrier, above which Fibonacci 38.2% target at 1244 was expected to come in focus. Instead, the price probed below initial support at 1225, 13 Oct intraday low and 23.6% of 1182/1237 ascend. Near-term focus is shifted towards the downside and looks for extension to the next significant level at 1216, 10 Oct higher low / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1182/1237 ascend / daily 20SMA. Break below the latter would confirm lower top formation and risk further downside, as overall picture remains bearish. On the other side, positive tone still exists on 4-hour studies and would keep potential upside attempts in play, while 1216 support holds.
Res: 1230; 1237; 1240; 1244
Sup: 1220; 1216; 1210; 1204
EURUSD
The Euro probes above 1.28 barrier, on a fresh strength, off yesterday’s low at 1.2730. Near-term price action continues to trade in choppy consolidation, entrenched within 1.2700/1.2840 range. Positively aligned near-term studies and yesterday’s positive close keep fresh upside attempts towards the range tops in play, as price action is supported by rising 100SMA and daily Kijun-sen line. However, overall picture remains negative and unless the price extends above range ceiling and 1.29 barrier, seen as initial barriers and trigger for attempts towards 1.30 breakpoint, expect prolonged consolidation, with downside at risk, in the near-term.
Res: 1.2843; 1.2884; 1.2900; 1.2930
Sup: 1.2787; 1.2750; 1.2730; 1.2700
GBPUSD
Cable resumed recovery rally after consolidation below 1.6125 and heads towards psychological 1.62 barrier, also daily Kijun-sen line and key near-term resistance at 1.6225, 09 Oct lower top. Near-term studies are bullish and support further upside, with yesterday’s positive close and break above daily 20SMA, improving daily studies, which are negative and require clearance of 1.6225 breakpoint for improvement. Corrective actions should be ideally contained at 1.6065 higher base, 38.2% retracement of rally from 1.5873, reinforced by 20/55SMA’s bull cross.
Res: 1.6200; 1.6225; 1.6250; 1.6285
Sup: 1.6150; 1.6125; 1.6100; 1.6078
USDJPY
The pair came under pressure after failing to regain pivotal 107.50 barrier and subsequent two-legged pullback so far reached 106.24, over 50% retracement of 105.18/107.38 upleg. Weakened near-term studies see risk of further easing, as daily bears are coming back to play and Evening Star pattern is forming on a daily chart. Completion of the pattern, which requires close at/ below 106, psychological support, reinforced by ascending daily 55SMA, also to confirm lower top formation and risk return to key near-term support at 105.18. Alternative scenario requires reversal above 106 handle and regain of 107.38/50 breakpoints, to neutralize downside risk.
Res: 106.76; 107.00; 107.38; 107.50
Sup: 106.24; 106.11; 106.00; 105.50
AUDUSD
Near-term price action broke above initial barrier and narrowed range tops at psychological 0.80 resistance, however, price continues to trade within larger 0.8641/0.8900 range, with 4-hour chart showing no significant changes, compared to the previous sessions. Near-term studies are positively aligned, which keeps the upside targets in near-term focus. The notion is supported by positive daily close and break above 20SMA. On the other side, negative larger picture’s studies see risk of fresh push lower, once short-term consolidative phase is completed. Only sustained break above 0.89 barrier would sideline bears and signal stronger corrective action.
Res: 0.8826; 0.8836; 0.8858; 0.8900
Sup: 0.8800; 0.8756; 0.8731; 0.8700
EURUSD
The Euro accelerates below 1.27 support and near-term range’s lower boundary, which was attacked on a pullback, following repeated rejection at 1.2840 range tops. Yesterday’s bearish Outside Day signaled fresh weakness, which attempts below 1.27 breakpoint area, reinforced by daily 20SMA. Negatively aligned near-term studies see increased downside risk, with clear break below 1.27 zone, which also marks 50% of entire 1.2499/1.2884 corrective rally, expected to trigger further retracement. Fresh bears will open targets1.2646, Fibonacci 61.8%, ahead of troughs at 1.2622 and 1.2603. Previous low and hourly 20SMA at 1.2730, caps for now, with further recovery attempts expected to be limited under 1.2782 lower top and hourly 20/55SMA’s bear-cross. However, while 1.27 zone remains intact, prolonged sideways trade would be likely near-term scenario.
Res: 1.2700; 1.2735; 1.2758; 1.2782
Sup: 1.2646; 1.2622; 1.2600; 1.2582
GBPUSD
Cable pulls back after failure to regain psychological 1.62 barrier, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, which guards 1.6225 breakpoint and high of 09 Oct. Yesterday’s close in red and failure to break above descending daily 20SMA, could be seen as initial signals of near-term weakness, as lower timeframes studies are losing traction and larger picture remains bearish. Downside extension below psychological 1.61 support and loss of 1.6064, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5873/1.6182, also 4-hour 20/55SMA’s bull-cross, is required to confirm near-term negative stance, with break and close below 1.60 handle, to bring near-term bears fully in play. Conversely, fresh strength above 1.6200/25, to neutralize downside threats and open way for stronger correction.
Res: 1.6100; 1.6130; 1.6150; 1.6182
Sup: 1.6057; 1.6028; 1.6000; 1.5990
USDJPY
The pair consolidates around 107 handle, after failing to regain pivotal 107.50 barrier and subsequent two-legged pullback found footstep 106.24. Near-term studies are neutral, while daily bears are coming back to play. Extension and close below 106, psychological support, reinforced by ascending daily 55SMA is required to signal lower top formation and risk further weakness towards key near-term support at 105.18. Alternatively, sustained break above initial 107 barrier and clearance of 107.38/50 breakpoints, to neutralize downside risk.
Res: 107.10; 107.38; 107.50; 108.00
Sup: 106.60; 106.24; 106.11; 106.00
AUDUSD
Near-term price action remains in a range trading and returns to the range’s mid-point zone, following unsuccessful attempt above psychological 0.88 barrier. Near-term studies remain neutral and require break of either range boundary, for fresh direction, with yesterday’s Doji confirming scenario. However, overall bearish structure, favors resumption of larger downtrend from 0.9400 lower top, on completion of short-term consolidative phase. Only clear break above 0.89 breakpoint and range top would put larger bears on hold.
Res: 0.8800; 0.8836; 0.8858; 0.8900
Sup: 0.8743; 0.8731; 0.8700; 0.8684
EURUSD
The Euro ticked higher and probed above 1.27 barrier on extended consolidative phase off 1.2612, 23 Oct low. Last Friday positive close gives positive signal, however, failure to close above daily 20SMA, keeps the downside at risk. Extension above 1.27 barrier, so far tested 38.2% of 1.2884/1.2612 descend at 1.2716, with extension and close above 1.2750 zone, 50% retracement / daily Tenkan-sen line and broken bull-trendline off 1.2499 low, required to confirm recovery and higher base formation at 1.26 zone. However, weak daily and 4-hour studies, see limited upside action for now, with upside rejection to risk lower top formation and possible return to strong 1.26 support area, below which, retest of key near-term support at 1.2499, would be expected.
Res: 1.2716; 1.2750; 1.2790; 1.2839
Sup: 1.2675; 1.2658; 1.2633; 1.2612
GBPUSD
Cable bounced off important 1.60 support zone, where recent pullback was contained by daily Tenkan-sen line at Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.5873/1.6182 ascend. Fresh strength, which signals reversal on last Friday’s positive close, attempts above daily 20 SMA at 1.6093 and through pivotal 1.6100/28 resistance zone, psychological barrier / double-Fibonacci resistance of 38.2% of 1.6522/1.5873 and 61.8% of 1.6182/1.5992 / lower top of 22 Oct. Break and close above here to confirm bulls which are developing on 4-hour chart and open way towards breakpoints at 1.6182/1.6225, 21/09 Oct peaks. Failure to clear 1.61 barrier would signal extended consolidation, while loss of 1.60 handle will be bearish.
Res: 1.6108; 1.6120; 1.6150; 1.6182
Sup: 1.6070; 1.6037; 1.6016; 1.5992
USDJPY
The pair remains supported in the near-term and trades in consolidative phase under fresh high at 108.34, where acceleration of the upleg from 106.23 was so far capped. Bulls developing on daily chart require sustained break above 108 barrier, which is now paused by Friday’s close in red. Initial supports at 107.73/63, daily 20SMA / daily Kijun-sen line, should be ideally keeping the downside protected for eventual push towards 110 breakpoint zone. However, caution is required while the price stays around 108 handle, as easing below initial supports and probe below 107.40/30, previous high / 50% retracement of 106.23/108.34 upleg, would weaken near-term structure and sideline bulls.
Res: 108.34; 108.73; 109.00; 109.22
Sup: 107.76; 107.63; 107.38; 107.29
AUDUSD
Near-term picture structure turned positive, as the pair attempted again above 0.88 barrier, with 0.8820 zone so far capping. However, overall near-term price action continues to move in a range trading. Improved near-term studies require trigger for attack at the upper boundary of the range and establish fresh direction on a break higher. On the other side, overall negative structure, favors resumption of larger downtrend from 0.9400 lower top, on completion of short-term consolidative phase for stronger correction of larger 0.9400/0.8641 descend.
Res: 0.8820; 0.8831; 0.8858; 0.8900
Sup: 0.8782; 0.8766; 0.8747; 0.8717
EURUSD
The Euro continues to trade in near-term directionless mode, around 1.27 handle, with mixed picture on lower timeframes. Hourly studies have improved, while 4-hour technicals are still weak, lacking strength for eventual push through the first breakpoint at 1.2750, 50% retracement of 1.2839/1.2612 and broken bull-trendline off 1.2499 low, clearance of which to confirm near-term base at 1.26 zone and accelerate reversal from 1.2612 low. On the larger picture, the pair is losing initial bullish momentum, despite yesterday’s positive close, as daily structure remains negative. Corrective rally off 1.2499, 03 Oct fresh low, shows that pivotal support, low of Nov 2012 at 1.2660 hasn’t been cleared yet, with bearish scenario requiring break and weekly close below here, for repeated attempt through 1.2499 and resumption of larger downtrend. Conversely, regain of 1.28 handle and extension above 1.2884, 15 Oct high, to confirm major reversal, which will allow for stronger retracement of 1.3992/1.2499 descend.
Res: 1.2721; 1.2750; 1.2790; 1.2839
Sup: 1.2663; 1.2633; 1.2612; 1.2603
GBPUSD
Cable attempts to stabilize above 1.61, on extension of corrective rally from 1.5873 low and higher low at 1.60 zone. Further upside is favored, as reversal pattern was formed on a daily chart, where the price also cleared 20SMA. Positive near-term studies support the notion. Clearance of initial barrier at 1.6146, yesterday’s high, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, to open way towards key barriers at 1.6182/1.6225, 21/09 Oct peaks. Ascending daily Tenkan-sen line, currently at 1.6061, underpins the action.
Res: 1.6108; 1.6120; 1.6150; 1.6182
Sup: 1.6100; 1.6085; 1.6061; 1.6016
USDJPY
The pair trades in extended consolidative phase under fresh high at 108.34, where acceleration of the upleg from 106.23 was so far capped, with the downside attempts being for now contained by daily Kijun-sen line at 107.60. Bulls which started to develop on a daily chart, are fading, following two consecutive daily closes in red. Potential fresh upside action requires sustained break above 108.00/34 barriers, to confirm resumption of recovery rally from 105.18. Otherwise, downside risk will remain in play, with acceleration on a break below pivotal 107.60 support, to signal higher low formation and fresh weakness towards psychological 107 support, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 106.23/108.34 upleg.
Res: 108.00; 108.34; 108.73; 109.00
Sup: 107.60; 107.29; 107.00; 106.77
AUDUSD
Near-term structure remains positive, as the pair attempts for sustained break above 0.88 barrier, after clearing previous congestion tops at 0.8820. This may open way for attack at the upper boundary of short-term range, as overall near-term price action remains entrenched within 0.8641/0.89 range. Improved near-term studies require close above 0.88, to open way towards pivotal 0.89 barrier and establish fresh direction on a break higher. On the other side, daily structure is still weak, with yesterday’s Doji, seeing risk of prolonged sideways trade, in case of early upside rejection.
Res: 0.8838; 0.8858; 0.8900; 0.8950
Sup: 0.8808; 0.8787; 0.8763; 0.8750
EURUSD
The Euro maintains near-term positive sentiment off 1.2612 low, posted on 23 Oct. Yesterday’s acceleration higher, cracked initial barrier at 1.2750, but so far holds below broken bull-trendline from 1.2499 low, currently at 1.2780. Positive near-term studies favor further upside, as the pair stabilizes above psychological 1.27 support and attempts to build higher base at 1.2725 zone. Yesterday’s positive close above daily 20 SMA, supports the notion, as daily technicals are gaining bullish momentum and indicators are heading north. With positive technicals, fundamentals are expected to be main driver of the pair, as today’s Fed announcement is in focus. Key levels and break points remain unchanged, with sustained break above 1.2800/84, required to confirm extended correction off 1.2499, while weekly close below pivotal 1.2660, Nov 2012 low and loss of 1.2499, 03 Oct low, is required to signal resumption of larger downtrend.
Res: 1.2763; 1.2780; 1.2800; 1.2839
Sup: 1.2725; 1.2700; 1.2663; 1.2633
GBPUSD
Cable stabilizes above 1.61 handle, after yesterday’s acceleration higher peaked ticks away from pivotal 1.6182, high of 21 Oct and subsequent pullback found support at 1.6126, where near-term higher base is under formation. Bullish tone prevails on lower timeframes studies, which along with yesterday’s positive close and daily indicators heading higher, supports eventual attempt through 1.6182/1.6225 break points, to confirm resumption of short-term recovery rally from 1.5873, low of 15 Oct. Break higher to also complete inverted H&S pattern on daily chart, which is expected to trigger fresh bullish acceleration. Lows at 1.6126 offer initial support, along with psychological 1.61 support, with 1.6086/81, higher low of 28 Oct / 50% retracement of 1.5992/1.6180 upleg / daily Tenkan-sen line and daily 20SMA, should contain extended pullbacks, to keep near-term bulls in play.
Res: 1.6182; 1.6200; 1.6225; 1.6250
Sup: 1.6126; 1.6100; 1.6086; 1.6065
USDJPY
The pair trades in extended consolidative phase under fresh high at 108.34, where acceleration of the upleg from 106.23 was so far capped and the downside attempts being for now contained by daily Kijun-sen line at 107.60. Bulls which started to develop on a daily chart, are still lacking traction, with yesterday’s Inside Day close, seen as warning. Potential fresh upside action requires sustained break above 108.00/34 barriers, to confirm resumption of recovery rally from 105.18, as near-term technicals hold positive tone. Otherwise, downside risk will remain in play, with acceleration on a break below pivotal 107.60 consolidation floor and near Fibonacci 38.2% of 106.23/108.34, to signal lower platform formation and fresh weakness towards psychological 107 support, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 106.23/108.34 upleg.
Res: 108.21; 108.34; 108.73; 109.00
Sup: 108.00; 107.60; 107.29; 107.00
AUDUSD
Near-term structure remains positive, as the pair rallies higher and approaches pivotal 0.89 barrier, also short-term 0.8641/0.89 consolidative range top. Yesterday’s positive close signals fresh direction after Monday’s Doji, with daily RSI turning higher and above neutrality zone, while fresh bullish momentum is building up. Daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen bullish cross at 0.8780, underpins the action. Near-term studies are bullish and support further action higher, however, overextended conditions signal possible hesitation on approach to 0.89 break point. Previous barriers at 0.8822/00, also Fibonacci 38.2% and 50% retracement of 0.8717/0.8880 upleg, should contain corrective dips.
Res: 0.8880; 0.8900; 0.8950; 0.9000
Sup: 0.8847; 0.8822; 0.8800; 0.8780