Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (updated daily) - page 96
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EURUSD
The Euro started the week with gap-lower opening, as expected, according to the results of Greek elections, which increase pressure on the single currency, already weakened by recent SNB and ECB decisions. Lower opening of some 70-pips gap and fresh weakness below last Friday’s low, posted new low at 1.1096, on a brief probe below 1.11 handle. This was all seen so far, with fresh corrective action under way, on attempts above overnight’s high to fill the gap and signal stronger corrective action, ahead of fresh push lower. Overall picture holds strong bearish, confirmed by daily / weekly close in red, with last week’s descend, marking the strongest weekly fall since Sep 2010, also losses of the month of January are so far the strongest since May 2012. All these suggest that Euro’s fall is not over, as the price closed for the week below Fibonacci 61.8% of larger 2000/2008 0.8225/1.6039 ascend, seeing scope for attack at psychological 1.10 level, as initial target. Bounce on oversold near-term studies is so far seen as corrective, with initial requirement of sustained break above 1.1200 barrier, to open lower top at 1.1287, ahead of more significant hourly lower platform at 1.1372, last Friday’s high / near 50% of 1.1679/1.1096 downleg. Key near-term barrier lies at 1.1660/80 Zone, lower platform of 19/21 Jan and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2568/1.1096 and only break here would neutralize bears.
Res: 1.1245; 1.1287; 1.1318; 1.1372
Sup: 1.1150; 1.1096; 1.1050; 1.1000
GBPUSD
Cable bounces from fresh low at 1.4950, posted on attempt below psychological 1.50 support, below which, last Friday’s close occurred. This gives signals of further bearish action towards initial target at 1.4910, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3501/1.7189 and more significant 1.4830/12 higher base and lows of 2013. Hesitation at 1.50 handle, above which near-term corrective bounce is trading, is expected to precede fresh leg lower, with 1.5050, previous low / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5210/1.4950, marking good barrier and 1.5110, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, expected to ideally cap. Only break and close above 1.52 lower top and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5618/1.4950, would sideline near-term bears and open pivotal 1.5267 barrier, high of 14 Jan and former recovery attempts peak.
Res: 1.5050; 1.5080; 1.5110; 1.5150
Sup: 1.4983; 1.4950; 1.4910; 1.4830
USDJPY
The pair continues to trade in a choppy mode, entrenched within 117.20 and 118.85 range, with daily 20SMA / cloud, continuing to limit upside attempts. Last Friday’s close in red shows that the pair lacks strength for final push higher, however, mixed near-term and daily studies favor directionless mode in next few sessions, before establishing fresh direction. Sustained break above 118.85 is expected to accelerate rally towards next barriers at 120.00 and 120.80 in extension. Otherwise, loss of near-term range floor at 117.20, would increase risk of retesting 115.83, 16 Jan low and extension towards key short-term support at 115.55, low of 16 Dec 2014 and Fibonacci 38.2% of 105.18/121.83 rally.
Res: 118.32; 118.85; 119.30; 119.57
Sup: 117.82; 117.25; 116.90; 116.31
AUDUSD
The pair remains under pressure and posts fresh low at 0.7856, after last Friday’s acceleration lower closed below psychological 0.80 support, as well as 0.7945, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 0.6007/1.1079 ascend. Also, long red weekly candle, with weekly loss of that intensity, last time seen in Sep 2014, confirms negative stance for further retracement. Low of July 2009 at 0.7700 is seen as next near-term target, below which there will be no significant obstacles, until 0.7200, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement. Doji in Asian session and price action limited under session’s high, would signal limited upside, ahead of fresh attempts lower. Psychological 0.8000 resistance, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8232/0.7856 descend and former lows at 0.8031, mark solid barrier and should ideally cap corrective attempts.
Res: 0.7945; 0.8000; 0.8031; 0.8088
Sup: 0.7856; 0.7800; 0.7750; 0.7700
EURUSD
Yesterday’s Doji confirms near-term neutral mode, with price action being entrenched within 1.1268/1.1358 range. Daily 10SMA continues to cap, keeping the downside vulnerable, as 4-hour studies remain negatively aligned. End of consolidative phase and break below 1.1260 base, reinforced by Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.1096/1.1532 upleg, to resume descend from 1.1532, 03 Feb correction high. Immediate targets at 1.1222, higher low of 27 Jan and 1.1199, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement, are expected to come in near-term focus and return to key support at 1.1096, low of 26 Jan, seen on further acceleration lower. Alternatively, lift above 10SMA, currently at 1.1350, to open next layer of dynamic barriers, daily 20SMA / Tenkan-sen at 1.14 zone, close above which to provide relief.
Res: 1.1330; 1.1358; 1.1380; 1.1400
Sup: 1.1300; 1.1268; 1.1260; 1.1222
GBPUSD
Cable remains in consolidative phase 1.52 handle, near double- Fibonacci support, 38.2% retracement of 1.4987/1.5351 upleg and broken 38.2% of 1.5618/1.4950 descend, where pullback from fresh correction high at 1.5351, found temporary footstep. Near-term studies are positively aligned, but lacking momentum for more significant upside attempts, with range tops at 1.5275, remaining intact for now. This suggests further consolidation, with loss of 1.52 handle, expected to weaken the structure and open daily 10 SMA at 1.5176 and 20SMA at 1.5143, loss of which to weaken the tone further and re-focus lower boundaries of former consolidation range. Alternatively, sustained break above consolidation tops at 1.5275 would improve and signal of higher base formation, for return towards pivotal 1.5351 high. Bullish resumption requires confirmation on a break above 1.5386, falling daily 55SMA.
Res: 1.5275; 1.5300; 1.5351; 1.5386
Sup: 1.5200; 1.5164; 1.5126; 1.5095
USDJPY
The pair eventually broke above daily cloud top that capped the upside attempts for past three weeks, giving initial signal of bullish resumption of recovery from 115.83 higher low of 16 Jan. The third wave that commenced from 116.86 trough, faces immediate barrier at 119.74, Fibonacci 100% expansion, above which to open lower top at 119.95 and could extend to 120.80 lower platform, also Fibonacci 138.2% expansion. Initial support lies at 119.20, previous high of 06 Feb, with extended corrective easing, expected to be contained above 118.70, daily 55SMA, to keep bulls in play.
Res: 119.74; 119.95; 120.80; 121.00
Sup: 119.20; 118.70; 118.31; 118.00
AUDUSD
The pair remains in near-term range, holding between 0.7732 and 0.7874 boundaries, with descending daily 10SMA limiting the upside. Near-term studies are weakening, as the price returns to the lower side of the range and see risk of break below range floor, to signal an end of consolidative phase and re-focus fresh low at 0.7624, posted on 03 Feb, as overall picture remains bearish. Alternative scenario requires break above range tops and daily 20SMA, currently at 0.7918, to provide near-term relief and open way for further correction.
Res: 0.7840; 0.7874; 0.7900; 0.7940
Sup: 0.7746; 0.7732; 0.7720; 0.7660
EURUSD
The pair showed no significant changes during this week, trading within 1.1268/1.1358 range and price action mainly holding around magnetic 1.13 level. Near-term technicals maintain neutral tone, confirmed with repeated Dojis, while daily studies remain negatively aligned, as the price stays capped by daily 10SMA and corrective action from 1.1096, low of 26 Jan, limited by descending daily 20SMA. On the other side, fundamentals are expected to be the main trigger for fresh direction, as uncertainty about Greece continues and potential negative results may accelerate Euro towards parity level, while positive solution for the crisis would boost the pair for fresh recovery. Daily 20SMA at 1.1380, marks the first breakpoint, close above which to open recovery rejection levels and lower platform at 1.1500/30 zone and resume correction off 1.1096, on sustained break higher.
Res: 1.1358; 1.1380; 1.1400; 1.1430
Sup: 1.1300; 1.1268; 1.1260; 1.1222
GBPUSD
Cable returned back to near-term range, after yesterday’s rally through range tops at 1.5270 zone, stalled on approach to 1.53 barrier. Yesterday’s close in red confirmed false break and confirmed near-term neutral stance. Range floor at 1.52 zone is reinforced by daily 10SMA and so far holds, with break lower to confirm failure swing and trigger fresh easing towards daily 20SMA/Kijun-sen line, also 50% of 1.4950/1.5351 rally at 1.5150. Close below here to confirm near-term bears fully in play and shift focus lower. On the other side, regain of 1.53 handle, would re-focus pivotal barriers at 1.5351, 06 Feb high and 1.5363, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.5618/1.4950 descend.
Res: 1.5275; 1.5300; 1.5351; 1.5386
Sup: 1.5214; 1.5194; 1.5164; 1.5100
USDJPY
The pair holds overall bullish tone, following yesterday’s acceleration through psychological 120 barrier that posted fresh high at 120.46. However, today’s bearish acceleration of consolidative action through initial 120 support, also broke below pivotal 119.20/00 support levels, to dip near 50% of 116.86/120.46 rally / daily Tenkan-sen line. Immediate tone weakened, despite quick recovery that needs to return above 120 handle, to neutralize increasing downside risk. Repeated break below 119.20/00, 06 Feb former high / daily cloud top, to signal stronger correction of 116.86/120.46 rally and expose next strong supports at 118.31/23, 09 Feb trough and Fibonacci 61.8% of 116.86/120.46, loss of which to confirm lower top and bring bears fully in play.
Res: 119.73; 120.00; 120.46; 120.80
Sup: 119.20; 118.73; 118.31; 118.00
AUDUSD
The pair came under pressure on negative data and accelerated lower, following yesterday’s close below four-day range floor at 0.7730. Fresh weakness approaches key support at 0.7624, 03 Feb low, to complete near-term 0.7624/0.7874 corrective phase and signal resumption of larger downtrend. Close below 0.7624 to open next target at 0.7204, Fibonacci 76.4% of 2008/2011 0.6007/1.1079 rally. Near-term studies hold firm bearish tone, however, hesitation ahead of key support could expected on oversold conditions. Former support at 0.7730, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.7874/0.7642 descend, now acts as strong resistance and should ideally cap corrective rallies.
Res: 0.7700; 0.7730; 0.7760; 0.7790
Sup: 0.7642; 0.7624; 0.7530; 0.7470
EURUSD
The Euro holds above daily 10/20SMA’s bullish cross, which offers initial support, regaining positive tone after last Friday’s Doji and daily close below psychological 1.14 level. Near-term studies are positively aligned, ahead of today’s Eurogroup / Greece meeting. However prolonged consolidative phase to be expected while the price holds between 1.1378, MA’s cross and 1.1482, daily Kijun-sen, break of which to open key near-term barriers, correction highs at 1.1500/32 and signal resumption of corrective phase from 1.1096 low, on a break. Conversely, loss of 1.1378 handle, also Friday’s low, would weaken the structure and expose higher base at 1.1270 for test.
Res: 1.1440; 1.1470; 1.1500; 1.1532
Sup: 1.1400; 1.1378; 1.1340; 1.1300
GBPUSD
Near-term tone remains positive, as Cable moves above 1.54 handle, after Friday’s consolidative action that followed last Thursday’s strong rally and confirmed by Doji. Positive near-term studies and daily technicals establishing in bullish mode, favor further upside. The price penetrated daily cloud, base of which lies at 1.5366, together with broken daily 55SMA and offers solid support, expected to hold corrective dips. Initial target lies at 1.5460, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 1.5618/1.4950 downleg, ahead of psychological 1.55 barrier and more significant daily cloud top at 1.5535. Close above here to open key near-term barrier at 1.5618, 31 Dec 2014 lower top, reinforced by falling daily SMA.
Res: 1.5460; 1.5500; 1.5535; 1.5618
Sup: 1.5400; 1.5366; 1.5350; 1.5300
USDJPY
The pair remains under pressure in the near term, with renewed attempts at strong support at 118.30, last Friday’s low / 09/10Feb lows, reinforced by daily 20SMA, also near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 116.86/120.46 rally. Negatively aligned near-term studies favor further downside, with close below pivotal 118.30 support, expected to accelerate pullback from fresh high at 120.46. On the other side, while 118.30 support contains, basing signal would keep alive fresh attempts higher, as positive tone of daily studies is still in play. Confirmation requires close above 119.00, daily cloud top and 119.18, last Friday’s high / Fibonacci 38.2% of 120.46/118.35 downleg, to shift near-term focus higher.
Res: 119.00; 119.18; 119.60; 120.00
Sup: 118.30; 118.15; 117.71; 117.15
AUDUSD
Near-term studies are positively aligned, after past two-day corrective action and positive closes, but attempts through last Friday’s high, are running out of steam, keeping pivotal 0.7847, daily 20SMA and 0.7874, 06 Feb lower top, intact for now. While upside attempts remain limited below these barriers, extended consolidative action is expected to precede fresh attacks at key supports at 0.7642/24, loss of which to confirm resumption of larger downtrend. Conversely, sustained break higher is required to confirm double-bottom formation and stronger bounce towards next barrier at 0.7958, sideways-moving daily Kijun-sen line.
Res: 0.7793; 0.7840; 0.7874; 0.7900
Sup: 0.7750; 0.7723; 0.7665; 0.7642
EURUSD
The Euro failed to sustain break above 1.14 handle, with double rejection at 1.1443 on 13 Feb and 1.1429 yesterday, being followed by quick descend, which now pressures psychological 1.13 support. With no solution on Greece/EU talks so far, downside pressure is rising. Near-term focus turns towards pivotal 1.1260 higher base and Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1096/1.1532 rally and eventual break lower to expose key support at 1.1096, low of 26 Jan. Bearish setup of near-term studies and price’s return below daily 20SMA, support the notion. However, prolonged consolidation could be expected while 1.1260 base holds, with Friday’s high at 1.1443, marking the first pivot.
Res: 1.1378; 1.1429; 1.1443; 1.1470
Sup: 1.1319; 1.1300; 1.1260; 1.1222
GBPUSD
Cable consolidates around daily cloud base at 1.5360, following fresh extension of larger rally that peaked at 1.5438. Yesterday’s bearish Outside Day comes as negative signal, amid overall bullish tone, seeing risk of recovery rally stall in case the price closes below 1.53, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5207/1.5438 ascend. Otherwise, close above cloud base and regain of 1.54 handle, would be a positive signal for fresh attempts higher. Break above 1.5438 high to open 1.5460, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.5618/1.4950 and 1.5526, daily cloud top, in extension.
Res: 1.5385; 1.5400; 1.5438; 1.5460
Sup: 1.5337; 1.5300; 1.5262; 1.5207
USDJPY
The pair trades in near-term consolidative mode, after reversal from 120.46 high found support at 118.25, Fibonacci 61.8% of 116.86/120.46 upleg, reinforced by daily 20SMA. Consolidation is for now entrenched between daily 20 and 55SMA’s, laying at 118.25 and 118.75, respectively, with yesterday’s Doji, signaling near-term indecision. Bearish near-term studies favor further easing, with break below 118.25 and daily Tenkan-sen at 118.15, expected to open 117.71, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement, next. On the other side, positive tone still exists on a daily chart and cannot rule out basing attempt and fresh recovery, which requires break above 118.75, daily 55SMA and 119.03, daily Ichimoku cloud top, to be confirmed.
Res: 118.75; 119.03; 119.60; 119.86
Sup: 118.25; 118.15; 117.71; 117.15
AUDUSD
The pair holds positive tone in near-term, as recovery rally off 0.7642 higher low, probes above psychological 0.78 barrier. On the other side, yesterday’s Doji sows no significant movements on the bigger picture, with bears prevailing and descending daily 20SMA, currently at 0.7827, limiting upside attempts for now. Break here and pivotal 0.7874, 06 Feb lower top, is required to confirm break above near-term range and signal stronger recovery towards pivotal 0.8023/31, high of 28 Jan / low of 07 Jan. Otherwise, expect prolonged consolidation, while the price action remains within current range, with downside risk to remain in play.
Res: 0.7827; 0.7874; 0.7900; 0.7958
Sup: 0.7740; 0.7722; 0.7700; 0.7667
EURUSD
The single currency remains entrenched within 3-week range and holding near-term neutral tone. Yesterday’s rally that ended day in Hammer candlestick could be seen as bullish signal in case of close above pivotal 1.1450 high, ceiling of narrower 1.1320/1.1450 range, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, that came under pressure again. Sustained break to open 1.1497, 05 Feb lower top, ahead of key near-term resistance at 1.1532, 03 Feb high and the upper boundary of 1.1260/1.1532 range and signal resumption of recovery rally from 1.096 low. Otherwise, expect prolonged directionless trade, on repeated upside rejections, with increased risk of return to the range floor, seen on a break below 1.1350, daily 20SMA.
Res: 1.1450; 1.1497; 1.1532; 1.1565
Sup: 1.1390; 1.1350; 1.1332; 1.1320
GBPUSD
Yesterday’s fresh rally that broke above previous high at 1.5438 and also cleared Fibonacci 76.4% barrier at 1.5460, ended day in long green candle, confirming resumption of recovery rally from 1.4950 low. Strong bullish setup on all timeframes keeps the upside in focus, with fresh extension higher targeting 1.5526, daily Ichimoku cloud top, with break here, expected to open 1.5607/18, daily 100SMA, pivotal lower top of 31 Dec 2014. Corrective dips should be contained by ascending daily 10SMA and daily Tenkan-sen line at 1.5330 zone.
Res: 1.5478; 1.5500; 1.5526; 1.5585
Sup: 1.5414; 1.5375; 1.5330; 1.5315
USDJPY
Near-term structure remains weak, with yesterday’s fresh acceleration lower, leaving temporary platform at 119.40 zone. However, key near-term supports at 118.37/25, daily 20SMA / 16/17 Feb lows / Fibonacci 61.8% of 116.86/120.46 ascend, stay intact for now, suggesting extended consolidation, as positive tone still exists on daily studies. Break above 119.40 platform and near-term consolidation top, is required to confirm higher low at 118.25 and re-focus 120.00/46 targets. Otherwise, completion of 4-hour Head and Shoulders pattern and fresh acceleration higher, could be expected on sustained break below 118.25 handle and 118.15, daily Kijun-sen line.
Res: 119.00; 119.40; 119.60; 120.00
Sup: 118.37; 118.25; 118.15; 117.71
AUDUSD
The pair dipped from fresh high at 0.7841 and broke below 0.78 handle, after news of possible Australia’s credit rating downgrade was released. Yesterday’s Doji and close below daily 20SMA, keep the upside attempts limited for now, as positive tone of near-term studies is fading. Close above 20SMA is required to open pivotal 0.7874 barrier, high of 06 Feb, to end near-term consolidative phase and trigger stronger correction. Otherwise, expect prolonged sideways trade, with rising downside risk, as setup of larger timeframes studies remains negative. Loss of 0.7740, 17 Feb trough and 50% of 0.7642/0.7841 upleg, to neutralize and re-focus key downside levels at 0.7642 and 0.7624, lows of 12 and 03 Feb respectively.
Res: 0.7800; 0.7829; 0.7841; 0.7874
Sup: 0.7765; 0.7740; 0.7723; 0.7700
EURUSD
The Euro remains entrenched within narrowed range boundaries, following last Friday’s short-lived dip to the levels near pivotal 1.1260 support and quick rebound that stalled near the upper limits. Daily Doji candle confirms indecision, with near-term technicals holding in neutral/negative mode. Large picture studies, however, remains negatively aligned and favor fresh downside. Eventual break below 1.1260 base and Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1096/1.1532 upleg, is required to confirm an end of consolidative phase and accelerate towards key support at 1.1096, 26 Jan low. Range top at 1.1450 offers strong resistance and is expected to cap, while sustained break here is needed to revive near-term bulls for attempt towards larger range top and pivotal barrier at 1.1532, 03 Feb high.
Res: 1.1400; 1.1428; 1.1450; 1.1497
Sup: 1.1332; 1.1320; 1.1277; 1.1260
GBPUSD
Cable closed in red on Friday, extending easing from 1.5478, 18 Feb high, where recovery rally stalled, suggesting further weakness. Near-term tone is weak and sees favored attack at pivotal 1.5340, daily Tenkan-sen / daily 10/55SMA’s bull cross, to confirm bearish stance. Fresh acceleration lower would extend to 1.5314, 17 Feb trough and key 1.5276 support, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4950/1.5478 rally / daily cloud base, where extended dips are expected to find support, to keep larger bullish picture intact for fresh attempts higher. Fresh recovery high at 1.5478, offers initial barrier, ahead of 1.5526, daily cloud top.
Res: 1.5418; 1.5463; 1.5478; 1.5526
Sup: 1.5367; 1.5340; 1.5314; 1.5276
USDJPY
Near-term studies are gaining traction as the price stabilizes above 119 handle and rallies towards pivotal barrier at 119.40, near-term range top. Strong support at 118.25, range floor and Fibonacci 61.8% of 116.86/120.46 upleg, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, contained Friday’s dips and kept downside protected. Break and close above 119.40 barrier to confirm bullish resumption and expose 120.00 and 120.46 barrier. Only loss of 118.25 handle would neutralize and open 118.03, daily cloud top.
Res: 119.16; 119.40; 119.60; 120.00
Sup: 118.87; 118.42; 118.25; 118.15
AUDUSD
The pair remains capped at 0.7850, where strong resistance have formed, guarding pivotal 0.7874 barrier. Near-term studies remain positively aligned and keep fresh upside attempts in play. Daily 20SMA, currently at 0.7780, is required to hold and keep the structure intact. Otherwise, fresh acceleration towards 0.7740, last week’s low, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line, could be expected on violation of daily 20SMA.
Res: 0.7850; 0.7874; 0.7900; 0.7950
Sup: 0.7780; 0.7756; 0.7740; 0.7720
EURUSD
The Euro holds above 1.13 handle, keeping the range-trading as dominant theme in the near-term, despite yesterday’s close in red and negative setup of near-term technicals. Narrowing 20d Bollinger bands support further consolidation. However, overall bearish tone continues to focus the downside and while the price holds below daily 20SMA, now offering initial resistance and currently at 1.1357, risk of attempts through 1.13 handle for attack at key 1.1260 support, will remain in play. Conversely, break above daily 20SMA / Tenkan-sen at 1.1357/63, would ease downside pressure and expose initial 1.1400, daily Kijun-sen, ahead of the first breakpoint at 1.1450 lower platform and key barrier at 1.1532, 03 Feb correction peak. Fed Chief Yellen’s testimony and Greek’s delayed submission of economic reform plans are expected to be main drivers of the markets from the fundamental side.
Res: 1.1357; 1.1400; 1.1428; 1.1450
Sup: 1.1310; 1.1277; 1.1260; 1.1220
GBPUSD
Cable regained traction on yesterday’s bounce from 1.5330, where higher low was left, holding near pivotal barrier and fresh high at 1.5478. Yesterday’s bullish Outside Day supports fresh strength and eventual break above 1.5478, to open 1.5526, daily Ichimoku cloud top and resume bulls towards next pivotal barrier at 1.5618, 21 Dec 2014 high. Near-term technicals hold positive tone and along with bullish setup of the daily studies, keep the upside focused. Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5330/1.5473 rally, also former high of 20 Feb, at 1.5418, should ideally contain near-term consolidative phase, to keep immediate bulls intact. Otherwise, further easing through 1.5400/1.5385, 50% and 61.8% retracement respectively, is expected to delay bulls and expose pivotal higher base at 1.5330 zone, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line.
Res: 1.5478; 1.5500; 1.5526; 1.5585
Sup: 1.5428; 1.5418; 1.5385; 1.5330
USDJPY
The pair remains entrenched between daily Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen lines and recovered the biggest part of yesterday’s losses on fresh strength above 119 handle. Near-term studies are regaining positive tone for possible repeated attack at pivotal 119.40 barrier, near-term congestion top, break of which to signal an end of consolidative phase and open targets at psychological 120.00 and key near-term top at 120.46, peak of 12 Feb. Positively aligned daily studies support the notion. Conversely, repeated rejection at 119.40 would signal prolonged sideways trading, while extension below initial supports at 118.70 zone, yesterday / today’s low, reinforced by Tenkan-sen line, would weaken the structure and risk return to the key support at 118.25, near-term range floor and Fibonacci 61.8% of 116.86/120.46 upleg.
Res: 119.40; 119.60; 120.00; 120.46
Sup: 119.00; 118.70; 118.42; 118.25
AUDUSD
The pair loses traction in the near-term, after repeated attempt higher was capped at 0.7850, where strong resistance guards pivotal 0.7874 barrier. Near-term studies are weakening, as the price action attempts below daily 20SMA that increases risk of retesting pivotal 0.7756/40 lows and near-term consolidation floor. Close below here to confirm negative near-term stance, as overall bears remain in play and shift focus towards 3-week range lows and key supports at 0.7642/24. Otherwise, while initial 0.7756/40 supports hold, expect extended consolidation, with upside targets to remain in play.
Res: 0.7777; 0.7813; 0.7850; 0.7874
Sup: 0.7740; 0.7723; 0.7700; 0.7669
EURUSD
The Euro remains unchanged despite softer tone of the dollar and holds above initial 1.13 support, after repeated probe below the handle. Yesterday’s Doji confirms indecision and keeps near-term studies in neutral mode, guarding pivotal 1.1260 higher base for now. Larger picture bears, however, remain in play, with daily 20SMA / Tenkan-sen, marking initial barriers at 1.1361/63, ahead of 1.1387, daily Kijun-sen. Only close above here would signal stronger upside attempts, to attack pivotal 1.1450 lower platform and expose key near-term barrier at 1.1532, 03 Feb correction high. Contracting 20d Bollingers support near-term sideways mode.
Res: 1.1387; 1.1400; 1.1428; 1.1450
Sup: 1.1355; 1.1320; 1.1287; 1.1277
GBPUSD
Cable ended yesterday’s trading in Doji, confirming near-term consolidation, after repeated failures to clear pivotal 1.5478 barrier. Overall tone, however, remains bullish and keeps the upside focused, as the price broke above 1.5478/1.55 barriers, confirming an end of consolidative phase and commencing fresh leg higher. Immediate target, daily cloud top at 1.5526, has been cracked, that opens way towards lower top of 31 Dec 2014 at 1.5618. Ascending daily 10SMA, currently at 1.5413, underpins the action, with daily close above 1.5478, required to confirm bullish break.
Res: 1.5532; 1.5585; 1.5618; 1.5680
Sup: 1.5500; 1.5478; 1.5444; 1.5413
USDJPY
The pair lost traction after break above pivotal 119.40 barrier stalled at 119.82 and subsequent quick reversal erased over 76.4% of 118.30/119.82 upleg. Near-term tone weakened on the action that left long upper shadow candle yesterday, showing increased pressure. Dips were initially contained above daily Kijun-sen line / 20SMA at 118.66/58 that comes under pressure today. Further easing and close below here, to increase risk of retesting 118.25 higher base and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 116.86/120.46 ascend, with upside–reversing daily cloud at 118, giving positive signal and offering solid support. Descending daily Tenkan-sen, currently at 119, offers good resistance, with close above here required to ease immediate bear-pressure.
Res: 119.00; 119.40; 119.82; 120.00
Sup: 118.58; 118.25; 118.00; 117.71
AUDUSD
The pair extends bounce from strong 0.7740 zone, where past two-day easing found support. Break and close above daily 20SMA, triggered strong acceleration higher that regained psychological 0.79 barrier, also 23.6% of 0.8794/0.7624 descend, signaling break above near-term consolidation tops. Daily close above pivotal 0.7874 high, to signal near-term double-bottom pattern completion and stronger correction, expected on fresh acceleration higher that would open 0.8023, lower top of 28 Jan and 0.8071, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement. Bulls remain firmly in play on lower timeframes studies and along with north-heading daily indicators, support the notion. Ascending daily Tenkan-sen / 10SMA at 0.78 zone, underpin the action and are expected to protect the downside.
Res: 0.7900; 0.7950; 0.8000; 0.8023
Sup: 0.7861; 0.7837; 0.7800; 0.7779
EURUSD
The Euro trades in near-term consolidative phase above fresh low at 1.1158, confirmed by repeated Doji. The upside remains capped at 1.1243, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1378/1.1158 downleg, as barrier was re-confirmed on yesterday rally’s rejection and subsequent easing. Hourly studies are neutral, while negative setup of larger picture’s technicals maintains overall bearish structure. Key short-term support at 1.1096, 2015 low, is in near-term focus, with break here, expected to open psychological 1.1000 support for test. Descending 4-hour chart 20EMA, reinforces initial barrier, while daily 20SMA, currently at 1.1330, marks the next breakpoint, above which to re-focus the upper boundaries of short-term 1.1096/1.1532 range.
Res: 1.1226; 1.1243; 1.1270; 1.1300
Sup: 1.1158; 1.1096; 1.1050; 1.1000
GBPUSD
Cable remains at the back foot, following yesterday’s fresh easing and daily close in red. The downside is so far protected by ascending daily 20SMA, with consolidation phase under way. Near-term studies are bearish, favoring further easing that requires close below daily 20SMA, to open pivotal support zone at 1.5320, higher base and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4950/1.5551 rally, violation of which is required to neutralize daily bulls and open way for further easing towards 1.5269, daily Kijun-sen line and daily Ichimoku cloud base at 1.52. Conversely, break above sideways-moving daily 10SMA, currently at 1.5422, where also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5551/1.5350 descend lies and daily Tenkan-sen / cloud top at 1.5440/45, is required to sideline immediate downside risk.
Res: 1.5396; 1.5422; 1.5445; 1.5457
Sup: 1.5350; 1.5320; 1.5300; 1.5269
USDJPY
The pair reverses from fresh high at 120.25, following yesterday’s rally and close above psychological 120 barrier. Immediate attacks at pivotal 120.46 barrier are put on hold, as fresh easing cracked trough at 119.65, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 118.66 / 120.25 upleg. However, former barrier, now pivotal support at 119.40, is intact for now and reversal above here is seen as ideal scenario for fresh attempts higher. Bullish setup of daily studies keeps the upside focused and only close below 119.00, daily 20SMA, would neutralize bulls and risk fresh weakness towards 118.66, daily Kijun-sen line / 50% of 116.86/120.46 rally and pivotal support at 118.25 higher base / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement.
Res: 119.95; 120.25; 120.46; 120.80
Sup: 119.55; 119.40; 119.27; 119.00
AUDUSD
The pair bounced from session lows at 0.7749, after RBA’s surprising no change decision, re-confirming strong support at 0.7740 zone and sidelining immediate downside risk. Regain of levels above 0.78 handle and sustained break above 0.7832 lower top, is required to confirm near-term recovery and shift focus towards the upside barriers at 0.7874, 06 Feb former high and pivotal 0.7911, 26 Feb correction high. Corrective dips so far hold above 0.78 handle and only break and close below here would undermine freshly established bullish tone.
Res: 0.7840; 0.7853; 0.7870; 0.7911
Sup: 0.7805; 0.7792; 0.7775; 0.7740