Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (updated daily) - page 99
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EURUSD
Asian trading saw probe below psychological 1.10 support, as the pair’s near-term price action remains biased down. Friday closed in red, just above 1.10 handle that was seen as brief consolidation, before fresh push lower. Fresh weakness penetrated daily cloud top at 1.0979, suggesting further weakness, as daily indicators continue to point lower. Also, long red weekly candle, after five-week recovery from 1.0519. 12 Apr higher low, suggests that short-term correction may be over. The pair focuses daily 55SMA at 1.0917 and 1.0880, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0519/1.1465 rally, close below which to confirm an end of corrective phase. Near-term studies are bearish, with hourly / 4-hour RSI at the border of oversold territory, suggesting prolonged consolidation, before fresh leg lower commences. Daily Kijun-sen line at 1.1062, marks initial resistance, ahead of daily 100SMA at 1.1133, expected to cap corrective rallies.
Res: 1.1009; 1.1062; 1.1100; 1.1133
Sup: 1.0962; 1.0917; 1.0880; 1.0858
GBPUSD
Overnight’s trading is shaped in tight Doji, with pivotal support at 1.5445, 19 May low, where Friday’s fall was contained by daily 20SMA, holding for now. Friday’s close in long red candle and below 200SMA, as well as weekly close in red, suggests that further easing cannot be ruled out, as daily indicators are in descending mode. Break below 1.5445 pivot and near-term base, is required to confirm daily failure swing formation and open way for fresh retracement of the upleg from 1.5086 to 1.5813. Near-term consolidation is so far capped by 4-hour Ichimoku cloud base, seeing limited upside attempts, as near-term studies are negative. Extended corrective rallies should be ideally capped under 1.56 barrier, while only break above pivotal 1.57 lower platform, would neutralize downside threats.
Res: 1.5490; 1.5549; 1.5600; 1.5641
Sup: 1.5445; 1.5400; 1.5364; 1.5258
USDJPY
Near-term price action consolidates below fresh high at 121.76, posted overnight, maintaining positive tone, confirmed by last Friday’s and weekly close in long green candles. The pair is looking for final retest of key 122.01 barrier, peak of 10 Mar, to complete 122.01/118.31 corrective phase and signal resumption of larger uptrend. Bullish setup of daily studies supports the notion, however, overbought near-term technicals suggest hesitation on approach to 122.01 break point. Friday’s low at 120.62, marks key support and should contain extended dips.
Res: 124.76; 122.01; 122.30; 122.81
Sup: 121.46; 121.00; 120.83; 120.62
AUDUSD
The pair maintains bearish near-term tone, as reversal from recovery peak at 0.8161, extended in Asian session and tested psychological 0.78 support. Daily and weekly close in long red candles, confirms near-term weakness, also suggesting an end of recovery action from 0.7531, low of 02 Apr. Immediate focus is at 0.7780 support, trough of 05 May, also daily 55SMA and Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7531/0.8161 rally, close below which to confirm bearish resumption. Daily 100SMA offers initial resistance at 0.7837, with daily 20SMA at 0.7935, marking a breakpoint.
Res: 0.7835; 0.7865; 0.7900; 0.7930
Sup: 0.7802; 0.7780; 0.7736; 0.7680
EURUSD
Euro skyrocketed yesterday on fresh hopes for solution of Greek’s debt problem, rallying from day’s low at 1.0914 to 1.1188 peak, ticks away from the next pivot at 1.1206, lower top of 22 May. Yesterday’s rally marks the biggest daily gain in past three months and is reviving bulls on daily chart. The pair broke and close above daily 20SMA that contains today’s action and underpins for fresh gains. Near-term consolidation bottomed at 1.1132, with fresh attempts at yesterday’s peak, underway. Final break through 1.1206 pivot, also near Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1465/1.0818 descend, to confirm reversal and re-focus key short-term barrier at 1.1465, peak of 15 May. Consolidation lows at 1.1132, mark initial support, reinforced by daily 20SMA, ahead of 1.1080, Fibonacci 38.2% of yesterday’s rally and 100SMA, loss of which to delay bulls.
Res: 1.0955; 1.0986; 1.1004; 1.1065
Sup: 1.1132; 1.1080; 1.1020; 1.1004
GBPUSD
The pair bounced yesterday, leaving hourly double-bottom at 1.5170 and closing the day in long green candle that sidelines immediate downside risk towards pivotal 1.5086 support, 05 May higher low of larger rally from 1.4563 to 1.5813. Bulls resume today, following narrow consolidation, contained at 1.5327, probing above 1.5365, yesterday’s high and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5688/1.5168 downleg, with immediate barrier laying at 1.5384, daily 100SMA. Daily indicators are turning higher, with Stochastic emerging from oversold territory and signaling further upside action. Daily Tenkan-sen comes next at 1.5428, ahead of former base at 1.5444, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line and 1.5485 pivot, daily 20SMA and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.5688/1.5168 descend. Session lows and consolidation floor at 1.5327, offers immediate support, with former pivot at 1.53 zone, also near Fibonacci 38.2% of yesterday’s rally, expected to contain extended dips.
Res: 1.5384; 1.5444; 1.5485; 1.5565
Sup: 1.5327; 1.5300; 1.5250; 1.5216
USDJPY
The pair pauses after hitting fresh high at 125.03, with subsequent pullback that formed bearish Outside Day yesterday, suggesting reversal. Dips were so far contained at 123.74, yesterday’s low, with near-term narrow consolidation under way, however, daily RSI and Stochastic are reversing from overbought zone, giving another reversal signal. With near-term studies turning bearish, fresh weakness is seen as favored near-term scenario. Violation of initial supports at 123.74, yesterday’s low and 123.60, hourly higher base, to trigger fresh acceleration lower and expose psychological 123.00 support, also 4-hour Ichimoku cloud top, ahead of 122.68, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 118.87/125.03 rally. Consolidation top at 124.23, marks initial resistance, ahead of 124.81 lower top, regain of which to neutralize near-term bears.
Res: 124.23; 124.54; 124.81; 125.03
Sup: 123.74; 123.60; 123.00; 122.68
AUDUSD
Aussie remains supported in the near-term, as yesterday’s strong acceleration from 0.7600 low, left long green candle and regained levels above 0.78, double-Fibonacci barrier, 61.8% of 0.7930/0.7596 downleg and 38.2% retracement of 0.8161/0.7596 descend. Immediate downside risk has been neutralized for now, opening space for further retracement of descend from 0.8161, 14 May peak, as today’s fresh strength cracked daily 100SMA that reinforces 0.78 barrier. Next pivot lies at 0.7856, daily 20SMA, close above which to confirm near-term reversal. Today’s low at 0.7754, marks initial support, with deeper dips to be ideally contained above 0.7715, Fibonacci 38.2% of yesterday’s acceleration.
Res: 0.7817; 0.7856; 0.7930; 0.7945
Sup: 0.7780; 0.7754; 0.7715; 0.7665
EURUSD
Euro ended Friday’s trading in long red candle, following sharp fall, triggered by better-than-expected US jobs data that further support the greenback and keep hopes of Fed’s rate hike. The pair dipped to 1.1047 low, where daily 10SMA contained losses, on acceleration from Friday’s intraday high at 1.1274 that retraced nearly 61.8% of 1.0818/1.1378 recovery marking temporary top at 1.1378. Negative sentiment, established after recovery rejection at 1.1378 and Friday’s acceleration lower, keeps the downside in focus. Loss of Friday’s low and psychological 1.10 support, would increase risk of revisiting key short-term support and breakpoint at 1.0818, low of 27 May, loss of which to confirm reversal from 1.1465 peak and lower top at 1.1378. Near-term price action consolidates above fresh low at 1.1047, with consolidation range top 1.1134, also Fibonacci 38.2% of Friday’s fall, reinforced by daily 20SMA that also marks the first pivot. Break here would delay near-term bears, for stronger correction, which should be ideally capped under 1.1180/1.1200, to keep intact Friday’s peaks and breakpoints at 1.1274/78.
Res: 1.1134; 1.1180; 1.1221; 1.1278
Sup: 1.1082; 1.1047; 1.1000; 1.0916
GBPUSD
The pair enters near-term consolidation, holding within narrow range of some 30-pips, after last Friday’s fall reached bottom at 1.5189 and kept intact key near-term support at 1.51368, low of 01 June, reinforced by daily 100SMA. Consolidation so far holds below psychological 1.53 barrier, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line, where consolidative phase should be ideally capped, as near-term studies remain bearish and daily technicals are turning in bearish mode. Loss of pivotal 1.5168 support, to trigger further extension of the downleg from 1.5813 top and look for 1.5088, higher low of 04 May and 1.5041, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.4563/1.5813 rally. Conversely, sustained break and close above 1.53 barrier, would delay near-term bears, for further correction of the downleg from 1.5439 to 1.5189.
Res: 1.5368; 1.5393; 1.5439; 1.5489
Sup: 1.5340; 1.5320; 1.5300; 1.5249
USDJPY
The pair extended larger uptrend on last Friday’s acceleration that posted fresh high at 125.84, levels last traded in May 2002. General tone remains firmly bullish and keeps the upside focused, despite overextended conditions of larger picture’s studies. Near-term price action holds in consolidative mode, following position adjustments under fresh high. Former top at 125.03, marks initial support and pivot point, where consolidation should be ideally contained. Otherwise, expect stronger pullback to precede fresh action higher. Key near-term support lies at 123.76 higher base and only break here would sideline near-term bulls. Key near-term target remains at psychological 130 barrier.
Res: 125.66; 125.84; 126.00; 126.50
Sup: 125.27; 125.03; 124.55; 124.21
AUDUSD
Aussie has eventually fully reversed near-term 0.7596/0.7817correction leg, following last Friday’s post, data acceleration that bottomed at 0.7596. Narrow near-term consolidation is expected to precede fresh leg lower that looks for full retracement of larger 0.7531/0.8161 rally. Near-term studies hold bearish tone, with bearish setup of daily indicators, supporting the notion. Descending daily 10SMA at 0.7681, is expected to cap, guarding pivotal barrier at 0.7724, last Friday’s high.
Res: 0.7641; 0.7681; 0.7705; 0.7724
Sup: 0.7596; 0.7551; 0.7531; 0.7500
EURUSD
Euro extends recovery from Friday’s post-data low at 1.1047, reversing completely Friday’s fall and establishing above 1.13 barrier that was broken on overnight’s fresh acceleration higher. Positive near-term sentiment has been re-established on yesterday’s rally that left long green daily candle and continues to drive the pair higher, with daily studies returning into full bullish mode. Lower top of 04 June at 1.1378, is the next pivot, above which to open way towards key 1.1465 barrier, peak of 15 May. Last Friday’s high at 1.1278, offers initial support and has contained overnight’s consolidation. Only weakness and close below 1.1178, former low of 05 June, would sideline near-term bulls.
Res: 1.1330; 1.1378; 1.1443; 1.1465
Sup: 1.1271; 1.1222; 1.1178; 1.1155
GBPUSD
The pair broke and close above daily 10SMA at 1.5317, entering into the upper side of near-term congestion, entrenched between daily 100 and 20SMA’s. Full reversal of last Friday’s fall, confirms higher low at 1.5189, vs 1.5168, low of 01 June and shifts focus higher, as near-term studies are gaining traction. However, clear break above 1.5439/50 barriers, congestion top / daily 20SMA, is required to confirm daily double-bottom pattern formation and signal further recovery towards next pivot at 1.5510, 200SMA. Caution is required, as daily studies are weak and upside rejection under 20SMA would signal extended consolidation, with fresh downside risk on return below daily 10SMA.
Res: 1.5368; 1.5393; 1.5439; 1.5490
Sup: 1.5330; 1.5300; 1.5282; 1.5251
USDJPY
Near-term price action extends pullback from fresh 13-year high at 125.84, with yesterday’s bearish Inside Day, confirming negative tone. Near-term studies weakened on yesterday’s pullback that was so far contained by ascending daily 10SMA, However, near-term focus remains shifted lower. The price attacks 4-hour Ichimoku cloud top at 124.30, with further easing and loss of psychological 124 handle, to expose pivotal supports and higher base at 123.60 zone, below which to confirm reversal. The notion is supported by daily RSI / Stochastic, reversing from overbought territory. Otherwise, expect extended consolidation while 123.60 support holds.
Res: 124.72; 125.00; 125.36; 125.58
Sup: 124.00; 123.76; 123.60; 123.18
AUDUSD
Yesterday’s bounce from 0.7596 low, after the pair fully retraced 0.7596/0.7817 upleg, sidelined immediate downside risk that was threatening for final push towards key 0.7531 support. Instead, near-term focus has shifted higher, as the rally nearly fully retraced last Friday’s fall, on extension to 0.7720 so far. Hourly studies regained bullish tone, however, 4-hour technicals are weak and unless the pair breaks above 0.7724, last Friday’s high, the downside would remain vulnerable, as daily studies are negative. Key near-term barriers lay at 0.7805/17, daily 20SMA / 03 June recovery peak. .
Res: 0.7724; 0.7750; 0.7805; 0.7817
Sup: 0.7676; 0.7652; 0.7630; 0.7596
EURUSD
Near-term direction is turning downside, after Euro’s last Friday’s hesitation, shaped in long-legged Doji, started week in soft tone, opening with gap lower. The price holds around 1.12 handle that was cracked overnight, with upside attempts being capped at 1.1230 by ascending daily 10SMA, keeping for now Friday’s closing level at 1.1260, intact. Near-term studies are in neutral mode, with focus at immediate targets at 1.1168/49, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0818/1.1384 upleg / last Friday’s low / daily Kijun-sen line, loss of which to weaken near-term structure and expose pivotal 1.1047 higher low, posted on 05 June. However, repeated bullish weekly close and positively aligned daily/weekly studies, keep scenario of higher low formation and fresh push higher, in play. Filling overnight’s gap is seen as initial step, with break above 1.13 barrier, near last Friday’s high, required to confirm reversal.
Res: 1.1230; 1.1260; 1.1294; 1.1349
Sup: 1.1191; 1.1168; 1.1149; 1.1127
GBPUSD
Positive last Friday’s close that also occurred above 200SMA, keeps the upside focused, as last Friday’s rally also cracked Fibonacci 61.8% barrier of 1.5813/1.5168 downleg, at 1.5166. The notion is supported by long green weekly candle, on acceleration from 1.5168, correction low of 01 June, where higher low was formed. Bullish tone prevails on all timeframes and favors further upside, with focus on immediate barriers at 1.5596, session high, then 1.5661, Fibonacci 76.4% and 21/22 May lower tops at 1.5688/98. Daily 200SMA, also Kijun-sen, offer initial support, ahead of last Friday’s low at 1.5464 and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5219/1.5596 rally at 1.5452, where corrective dips are expected to find ground. Alternatively, break here and below 1.5418, 11 June low, would weaken near-term tone and shift focus lower.
Res: 1.5568; 1.5596; 1.5661; 1.5698
Sup: 1.5527; 1.5491; 1.5464; 1.5452
USDJPY
Near-term price action remains directionless, after bounce from near-term base at 122.44 was capped at 124 zone and price action entrenched within narrow range. Last Friday’s Doji confirms hesitation, along with neutral near-term technicals. Immediate downside threats were neutralized after fresh rally covered overnight’s gap lower, however, range-trading remains intact in the near-term. However, downside remains at risk, as corrective pullback from fresh high at 125.84, hasn’t finished yet and risk of lower top formation and fresh leg lower, exists. To neutralize such scenario, break above daily 10SMA and last Thursday’s recovery top at 123.98/124.11, is seen as minimum requirement, with further rallies and break above lower top at 124.61. also Fibonacci 61.8% of 125.84/122.44, to confirm reversal and shift focus higher.
Res: 123.80; 124.11; 124.61; 125.04
Sup: 123.10; 122.44; 122.35; 122.01
AUDUSD
The pair continues to trade in near-term sideways mode, with focus shifting lower, following last Friday’s bearish close and probe below near-term range floor. With descending daily 20SMA continuing to cap, more downside pressure could be expected, as daily 10SMA, currently at 0.7708, was cracked. Weak daily studies keep the upside limited for now, with contracting 20d Bollingers, suggesting further range trading, as past two-week price action remains within 0.7596/0.7817 range.
Res: 0.7721; 0.7752; 0.7791; 0.7802
Sup: 0.7700; 0.7676; 0.7634; 0.7596
EURUSD
Increased fears of Grexit scenario, as expected, put strong pressure on Euro that opened with strong gap-lower against its major rivals. The single currency opened with 158-pips deep gap near psychological 1.10 support, with fresh weakness being contained at next strong support – daily Ichimoku cloud base. Subsequent recovery on profit-taking, accelerated at the beginning of European session and surged through initial daily 100SMA barrier at 1.1038, to find solid resistance at 1.1126, daily Kijun-sen line, former support that contained past week’s downside attacks. This barrier, together with daily Ichimoku cloud top at 1.1147, should be ideally capping recovery actions, to maintain freshly established strong near-term bearish structure intact, as near-term focus shifts lower, after today’s gap lower open and looks towards strong support at 1.0818, higher low of 27 May. Also, the structure softened after last week’s close in red that came after three consecutive weeks of euro’s rallies. On the other side, further rallies and potential violation of daily cloud top, would delay immediate bears.
Res: 1.1126; 1.1147; 1.1193; 1.1233
Sup: 1.1057; 1.1038; 1.1000; 1.0963
GBPUSD
Cable covered overnight’s gap, on recovery action that emerged after failure to break below Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.5168/1.5928 rally at 1.5638, as post-opening dips found footstep at 1.5660, near-former low of 24 June. Recovery action was so far capped at 1.5742, keeping intact the first pivot at 1.5765, daily 10SMA that guards 1.5800/13, next pivotal barriers. Weak near-term studies keep the downside vulnerable and while daily 10SMA stays intact, expect support for near-term shorts. However, overall structure remains bullish and sees current pullback as corrective action, before fresh attempts higher. Fibonacci 38.2% support acts as ideal reversal point, to prevent further easing towards next pivotal support at 1.5595, ascending daily 20SMA, loss of which would soften daily bulls and risk further easing.
Res: 1.5742; 1.5765; 1.5813; 1.5842
Sup: 1.5683; 1.5660; 1.5638; 1.5595
USDJPY
Near-term price action is congested between 122.08, overnight low and 123.18, Asian recovery high, following on 120-pips strong gap –lower opening, seen on fresh strengthening of Japanese yen, traditional safe-haven instrument. Former strong barrier and upside breakpoint at 122, stayed intact, after break below former base at 122.44, spiked lower to 122.08, session low. Recovery action is so far seen limited, with daily Tenkan-sen / 4-hour Tenkan-sen and 10 SMA, offering good resistance at 123.26/38 zone, guarding pivotal daily 20SMA that reverses lower and currently lies at 123.67. Only sustained break here that will also confirm filling overnight’s gap, would neutralize downside threats and shift focus towards 124.42, short-term congestion top, in alternative scenario. For now, downside is seen as favored target, as fresh weakness already cracked 124.44 higher base, with extension below 122 pivot, required to confirm bearish resumption of pullback from 125.84.
Res: 123.06; 123.26; 123.38; 123.98
Sup: 122.74; 122.30; 122.08; 121.53
AUDUSD
The pair covered small overnight’s gap and recovered from dangerous zone, after cracking strong support and short-term range floor at 0.76 zone. Dips posted Asian session’s low at 0.7584, before bouncing. However, this could be seen as delay of fresh push lower that needs firm break below 0.76 base, to open way for eventual return to key short-term support at 0.7531, low of 02 Apr, for full reversal of 0.7531/0.8161 bull-phase. So far, short-term range trading remains in play, as long as 0.76 base holds. On the upside, recovery attempts were capped under psychological 0.77 barrier, leaving intact bearish 10/20daily SMA’s cross that reinforces downside pressure, as pair’s overall structure remains bearish.
Res: 0.7667; 0.7692; 0.7725; 0.7750
Sup: 0.7633; 0.7600; 0.7584; 0.7531
EURUSD
The Euro extends near-term recovery off Friday’s fresh low at 1.0915, taking a breather of larger downmove from 1.1434, 18 June top. Rally accelerated above daily 10SMA and Ichimoku cloud top at 1.11 and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1434/1.0915 downleg at 1.1113, after triggering series of stops, with positive news coming from China and hopes for solution of Greek problem, giving boost to the single currency’s near-term action. However, daily structure remains weak and sees risk of recovery stall and fresh leg lower. Extension above the first pivot at 1.1187, daily 20SMA, is required to sideline existing downside risk and signal reversal. Key near-term barrier lies at 1.1276, lower top of 29 June. On the downside, 1.11 marks initial support, ahead of 1.1040 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of recovery rally from 1.0915 / hourly higher low and 1.1026, daily 100SMA, loss of which will be bearish.
Res: 1.1028; 1.1057; 1.1077; 1.1096
Sup: 1.1100; 1.1061; 1.1043; 1.1026
GBPUSD
Cable maintains bearish near-term tone, as the price eventually broke and closed below pivotal daily Ichimoku cloud top and 200SMA at 1.5440. Yesterday’s acceleration lower met initial target at 1.5348, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.5168/1.5928 rally and posted fresh low at 1.5327. Near-term price action bounces in corrective move on oversold near-term studies, with limited upside action seen, as overall picture remains firmly bearish and looks for final stretch towards short-term target at 1.5168, low of 01 June, for completion of 1.5168/1.5928 upleg. Former breakpoint at 1.5440, now acts as initial resistance, ahead of yesterday’s high at 1.5465 and Tuesday’s intraday high at 1.5484, levels that mark the mid-point zone of 1.5626/1.5327 downleg and expected to ideally cap recovery attempts.
Res: 1.5440; 1.5465; 1.5484; 1.5580
Sup: 1.5356; 1.5327; 1.5300; 1.5250
USDJPY
The pair trades in near-term recovery rally from 120.39, fresh low, posted on yesterday’s strong acceleration lower. Yesterday’s move that left long red daily candle, gave strong bearish signal, after the fall took out all supports en-route, Fibonacci 61.8% at 121.53, daily 100SMA at 121 and Fibonacci 76.4% at 120.52. Psychological 120 support is now eyed, with full retracement of 118.87/125.84 rally, not ruled out. Near-term rally on short-covering action, is underpinned by relief rally of Chinese stocks, however, prevailing bearish tone on all timeframes, sees limited upside action. Daily Ichimoku cloud base at 121.67, also near Fibonacci 61.8% of yesterday’s fall, marks pivotal resistance and is seen as ideal reversal point. Otherwise, expect extended recovery towards psychological 122 barrier and daily cloud top at 122.29, break of which to neutralize near-term bears.
Res: 121.67; 122.00; 122.29; 122.55
Sup: 121.04; 120.57; 120.39; 120.00
AUDUSD
The pair trades in near-term recovery mode, after posting fresh 6-year low at 0.7370, on yesterday’s extension of larger downtrend. However, yesterday’s daily candle with long lower shadow, gave initial positive signal, as buying interest increases. Today’s fresh bullish acceleration was supported by positive news from Chine, but recovery rally, so far looks like correction on oversold conditions and is expected to precede fresh leg lower. Former breakpoint at 0.7531, low of 02 Apr and floor of short-term 0.7531/0.8161 consolidation, marks initial barrier and is expected to ideally cap, while break here is expected to extend correction and open next significant barrier at 0.7600, floor of former near-term 0.7600/0.7847 consolidation and near 50% of 0.7847/0.7370 downleg
Res: 0.7500; 0.7531; 0.7600; 0.7665
Sup: 0.7448; 0.7400; 0.7370; 0.7350
EURUSD
The Euro bounced strongly yesterday, leaving long bullish daily candle that came after previous day’s long-legged Doji and signals stronger correction. Bullish acceleration reached 1.0967 high, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.1215/1.0807 downleg, where rally was capped by descending daily 10SMA. Improved near-term technicals favor further recovery, however, overall bearish structure remains intact. Further upside to face strong obstacles at 1.0992, daily Ichimoku cloud base and 1.1033, falling daily 20SMA. Only break and close above the latter would neutralize scenario of lower top formation and fresh leg lower. Asian trading was entrenched within narrow range, with range bottom at 1.0923, marking initial support, ahead of previous barrier at 1.0900, also near 38.2% of recovery rally from 1.0807. Break here to signal an end of recovery phase.
Res: 1.0967; 1.0992; 1.1033; 1.1059
Sup: 1.0923; 1.0900; 1.0868; 1.0845
GBPUSD
Cable accelerated higher and probes above 1.56 barrier, after four-day descend from 1.5673 peak, was contained by daily 100SMA and rising 4-hour Ichimoku cloud top at 1.5527. Yesterday’s Doji candle signaled hesitation at strong support area, with current rally so far seen as corrective action, while pivotal resistance zone at 1.5673/1.5698, 15 July high / Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5928/1.5527 downleg, stays intact. Daily studies hold in neutral mode and require break of either side of near-term congestion, to define fresh direction.
Res: 1.5622; 1.5673; 1.5698; 1.5729
Sup: 1.5589; 1.5548; 1.5527; 1.5500
USDJPY
The pair resumes pullback off 123.46, yesterday’s high that took out initial supports at 123.90/70. Yesterday’s Bearish Engulfing candle suggests stronger pullback, with today’s fresh extension lower, bringing in focus next supports at 123.25, daily Ichimoku cloud top and 122.90, 14 July higher low and Fibonacci 38.2% of 120.39/124.46 rally. These supports mark pivotal points and break here would trigger stronger corrective action. Near-term technicals are entering bearish mode, while overall picture remains bullish and favors fresh attempts higher on completion of current correction. Ideally, pullbacks should find support above 122.90 handle, not to further delay larger bulls on extended corrective phase.
Res: 123.75; 123.97; 124.46; 124.72
Sup: 123.46; 123.25; 122.90; 122.68
AUDUSD
Aussie sidelined immediate downside risk after yesterday’s rally that came after Monday’s long-legged Doji, left long bullish daily candle. Hourly studies improved on a rally through daily 10 SMA / Tenkan-sen line, former initial barriers, however, gains stay short of pivotal 0.7495 barrier, former consolidation top, reinforced by falling daily 20SMA, break of which is needed to signal stronger recovery. Otherwise, extended consolidative phase and fresh attempts lower remain as favored scenario, as overall structure remains bearish.
Res: 0.7447; 0.7495; 0.7524; 0.7584
Sup: 0.7371; 0.7324; 0.7300; 0.7250
EURUSD
Yesterday’s strong rally that left long bullish daily candle, cracked daily Kijun-sen line at 1.1108 and peaked at 1.1128, where daily 55SMA capped rally. This now marks pivotal barrier, with sustained break higher to open key 1.1215 hurdle, daily cloud top / 10 July high. Corrective pullback on overbought near-term conditions is under way, with strong 1.10 support zone, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.0807/1.1128 recovery leg / daily 20SMA and near daily cloud base, expected to contain and keep near-term bulls in play. On the other side, daily structure is still negative and increased risk of lower top formation and fresh acceleration lower, could be expected on sustained break below 1.10 handle.
Res: 1.1098; 1.1128; 1.1195; 1.1215
Sup: 1.1050; 1.1000; 1.0967; 1.0924
GBPUSD
Cable holds positive hourly structure, on today’s return above daily 20SMA, where yesterday’s trading closed, after peaking at 1.5593. However, daily studies are weak and while pivotal daily cloud top at 1.5598 holds, downside risk is expected to remain in play. Session low at 1.5551, reinforced by daily 20SMA and near Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5464/1.5593 upleg, is giving way and sustained break here would weaken near-term structure and expose pivotal 1.55 zone support and risk return to key 1.5464, 24 July higher low. Conversely, clear break above daily cloud top, re-focus key near-term barrier and lower platform at 1.5670 zone.
Res: 1.5578; 1.5598; 1.5628; 1.5670
Sup: 1.5540; 1.5500; 1.5464; 1.5404
USDJPY
The pair bounces from daily 20SMA / daily cloud top supports at 123.20/02, which were cracked on yesterday’s weakness to 122.98. Subsequent bounce keeps the latter as still valid supports, as daily structure remains positive and sees the area as ideal reversal point. The notion is supported by reversing daily 20SMA. However, weak near-term technicals, keep the downside vulnerable, with violation of strong 123 support zone, expected to trigger fresh acceleration lower, as extension of pullback from 124.46, 21 July peak. Yesterday’s high at 123.82, reinforced by daily 10SMA, marks initial barrier, with sustained break here, to shift near-term focus higher and signal higher low formation.
Res: 123.82; 124.17; 124.46; 124.72
Sup: 123.45; 123.20; 123.02; 122.90
AUDUSD
Aussie consolidates recent losses, attempting to form near-term base above fresh 6-year low at 0.7255. Yesterday’s Gravestone Doji candle confirms the notion. However, limited upside action is seen for now, as overall picture remains bearish and sees scope for final push towards 0.7204, Fibonacci 76.4% target, below which would expose psychological 0.7000 support. Falling daily 10SMA offers initial resistance at 0.7351, ahead of daily 20SMA at 0.7421, where extended rallies are expected to find strong resistance.
Res: 0.7351; 0.7376; 0.7421; 0.7447
Sup: 0.7289; 0.7255; 0.7204; 0.7150
EURUSD
The Euro remains at the back foot, following last Friday’s sharp reversal from recovery rejection at 1.1121 and yesterday’s close in red and below daily 20SMA that offers initial resistance at 1.0974, reinforced by base of thick 4-hour Ichimoku cloud. Psychological 1.10 barrier, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1121/1.0931 pullback, comes next, with extended recovery attempts, expected to remain below daily cloud base at 1.1062. Weak near-term technicals and overall bearish structure, keep the downside in focus. Lows of yesterday and Friday at 1.0931/20, mark immediate supports, ahead of pivotal 1.0891, low of 30 July, loss of which to expose higher base and breakpoint at 1.08 zone.
Res: 1.0974; 1.1000; 1.1025; 1.1062
Sup: 1.0931; 1.0920; 1.0891; 1.0868
GBPUSD
Cable continues to trade in neutral near-term mode, with price action being for now supported by sideways-moving daily 20SMA that currently lies at 1.5556 and marks pivotal support. Upside attempts were so far limited, keeping rising daily cloud top at 1.5643 and cracked 1.5670 congestion tops zone, intact for now. Setup of daily indicators remains neutral, while daily MA’s are bullishly aligned, with upside-turning daily 20d Bollinger Bands, giving bullish signal. Initial range is defined by session low at 1.5569 and yesterday’s NY session high at 1.5622. Next barriers lay at 1.5643, yesterday’s high and 1.5670/88 breakpoint zone.
Res: 1.5643; 1.5670; 1.5698; 1.5729
Sup: 1.5569; 1.5547; 1.5526; 1.5488
USDJPY
The pair continues to consolidate at 124 zone, trading in narrow range and holding near-term studies in neutral mode. Overall picture, however, remains bullish and keeps focus at the upside. Renewed attack at last week’s high at 124.56 and sustained break higher, is required to confirm resumption of larger recovery rally from 120.39, 08 July low. Daily 10SMA offers initial support at 123.82, guarding more significant support zone at 123.49/40, daily Ichimoku cloud top / rising daily 20SMA and 123.00, higher low of the rally from 120.39, loss of which would weaken near-term tone.
Res: 124.09; 124.36; 124.56; 124.72
Sup: 123.82; 123.49; 123.40; 123.00
AUDUSD
Strong post-RBA acceleration probes above initial barriers at 0.7362/66, near-term consolidation top / falling daily 20SMA, leaving near-term base at 0.7350 zone that was cracked on last Friday’s spike to 0.7333, fresh 6-year low. Near-term studies are gaining bullish tone, signaling further correction, with 0.74 barrier seen next, ahead of 0.7485/95 breakpoint, daily Kijun-sen line and mid-July lower platform. Extended rallies should be ideally capped here, as overall picture maintains firm bearish tone and is expected to resume towards initial target at 0.7204 and psychological 0.7000 support, on completion of near-term consolidative phase.
Res: 0.7400; 0.7447; 0.7495; 0.7540
Sup: 0.7362; 0.7335; 0.7306; 0.7258