Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (updated daily) - page 102
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
EURUSD
The Euro returned back into daily Ichimoku cloud, on extended recovery that commenced from 1.08 zone, lows hit on Friday’s sharp fall and retested yesterday.
Daily chart shows range-trading, with flat daily indicators, holding in neutrality zone. Setup of daily MA’s turned into mixed mode, on fresh rally that returned above 20 and 30SMA’s.
Daily 30SMA now offers immediate support, which so far contained daily action at 1.0880.
Near-term technicals regained bullish tone and favor further upside attempts, as the pair probes above 1.09 handle.
Descending daily 100SMA and range tops at 1.0970/80 zone, mark strong resistance and are expected to cap extended rallies, guarding next breakpoint at 1.1006, daily Ichimoku cloud top.
Alternative scenario requires return below 20/30SMA’s and extension under daily cloud base at 1.0860, to turn near-term focus lower.
Res: 1.0929; 1.0946; 1.09661.1006
Sup: 1.0880; 1.0860; 1.0832; 1.0808
GBPUSD
Cable broke and close above daily 20SMA, on yesterday’s rally that left long daily bullish candle and turned near-term sentiment into positive mode. Eventual probe and close above near-term congestion tops, reinforced by Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of 1.4943/1.4078 downleg, suggest further recovery. Broken 20SMA now acts as support at 1.4356 and holds today’s consolidation.
Renewed attempts and sustained break above yesterday’s peak at 1.4442, would open next pivotal barrier at 1.4510, daily Kijun-sen / 30SMA, also 50% retracement of 1.4943/1.4078 downleg.
Daily 10SMA marks pivotal support at 1.4290, while return below daily Tenkan-sen at 1.4260, will neutralize and revive near-term bears.
Res: 1.4411; 1.4442; 1.4473; 1.4510
Sup:1.4356; 1.4325; 1.4290; 1.4260
USDCAD
The pair consolidates in 1.40 zone, after posting fresh low at 1.3906 on yesterday’s extended weakness.
Repeated close below pivotal 1.3978 support, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2829/1.4688 rally gives strong bearish signal, together with repeated bearish daily candle with long upper shadow.
Weaker US dollar offset yesterday’s sharp fall of oil price and keeps negative sentiment in play.
Near-term studies are negative, with bearish setup of daily indicators and bearish 10/20SMA’s cross formed, looking for fresh downside attempts.
Yesterday’s high at 1.4060, offers initial resistance, ahead of falling daily 10SMA at 1.4135, which is expected to ideally cap rallies.
On the downside, session low at 1.3934, marks initial support, ahead of yesterday’s low at 1.3906, followed by 1.3828, rising daily 55SMA, which guards key short-term support, daily higher base at 1.3800.
Res: 1.4060; 1.4190; 1.4135; 1.4204
Sup: 1.3934; 1.3906; 1.3828; 1.3800
AUDUSD
The pair is heavier in the near-term action, following bearish acceleration on RBA overnight that cracked near-term consolidation floor at 0.7040.
Mixed near-term technicals suggest prolonged range trading, while the price holds above 0.7040 handle, before fresh attempts lower, as reversal of daily slow Stochastic suggests fresh weakness, which requires break below initial 0.7040 support and 0.7020, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.6825/0.7139 recovery.
Daily Kijun-sen offers immediate resistance at 0.7075, guarding pivotal 0.7140 resistance zone, recovery peak, reinforced by daily 100SMA.
Res: 0.7075; 0.7100; 0.7140; 0.7200
Sup: 0.7040; 0.7020; 0.7000; 0.6969
EURUSD
Near-term structure remains weak, as the pair posted marginally lower low at 1.1105 yesterday, with another red daily candle with long upper shadow, which confirms persisting downside pressure.
However, the pair was so far unable to close below pivotal 1.1120 support, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0709/1.1374 rally, despite probes below support.
Extended congestion would be likely near-term scenario, while 1.1120/00 support zone holds, as daily studies are bullish, with 20/200SMA’s Golden Cross being formed and underpinning larger bulls, which are currently in corrective phase.
Also, daily Slow Stochastic turned sideways in oversold territory, suggesting possible reversal.
Selling on upticks remains favored, ideally towards 1.1205, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1374/1.1105 downleg / 10SMA, for renewed attempts lower, with tight stop at daily Tenkan-sen, break of which to signal reversal.
Final break through 1.1120/00 supports will open 1.1075/55, daily Kijun-sen / 200SMA, as next strong supports. Loss of the latter is needed to confirm reversal.
Res:1.1148; 1.1177; 1.1191; 1.1205
Sup:1.1105; 1.1075; 1.1055; 1.1000
GBPUSD
Cable rallies above near-term consolidation range, signaling formation of hourly base at 1.4230 zone, after yesterday’s action was shaped in long-legged daily candle, signaling indecision.
Current rally presents the fourth, corrective wave of five-wave downmove from 1.4665, 04 Feb high, which should ideally reverse at 1.4460, before commencing fresh bear-leg.
Daily Slow Stochastic, reversing from oversold zone, supports the action, with initial barrier, daily 30SMA at 1.4377, being reached so far.
Next resistance lies at psychological 1.4400 level and also marks Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.4665/1.4233 downleg, followed by daily 10SMA at 1.4426.
Early upside rejection will signal fresh bears, while extended fourth wave should not exceed 1.4500, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.4665/1.4233 descend.
Res: 1.4377; 1.4400; 1.4426; 1.4460
Sup:1.4337; 1.4270; 1.4233; 1.4200
USDCAD
The pair slumped yesterday, on fresh rally of crude oil, leaving long red daily candle, which confirms return of near-term bears fully in play.
Fresh weakness broke today below rising daily Ichimoku cloud base and came ticks away from key near-term support at 1.3637, 04 Feb low.
Daily close below cracked Ichimoku cloud base is needed to confirm break and extend the bear-leg from 1.4014, 11 Feb lower top.
Sustained break below 1.3637 pivot, will open 1.3595, daily 100SMA and 1.3539, Fibonacci 61.8% of larger 1.2829/1.4688 rally, in extension.
However, consolidation above 1.3637 pivot cannot be ruled out, as near-term studies are oversold, with daily Tenkan-sen at 1.3830, expected to ideally cap upticks.
Broken daily cloud base now acts as immediate resistance at 1.3710.
Crude oil remains the main driver of the USDCAD pair.
Res: 1.3710; 1.3750; 1.3810; 1.3830
Sup :1.3651; 1.3637; 1.3595; 1.3539
AUDUSD
Aussie returned to full bullish mode after yesterday’s dips were contained by daily 20SMA at 0.7080, with subsequent sharp acceleration higher that closed above thin daily Ichimoku cloud and left long-tailed long daily bullish candle.
Strong bullish signal was generated for further upside attempts and full retracement of 0.7241/0.6972 downleg, as yesterday’s rally peaked above 76.4% of 0.7241/0.6972 pullback. Break above 0.7241 barrier is required to signal resumption of the second bull leg of correction from 0.6825 low and expose 200SMA at 0.7291.
Today’s corrective dips were contained by thin daily cloud base at 0.7129, keeping near-term bulls fully in play.
Daily 10SMA at 0.7111 marks pivotal support and extension below here would soften near-term tone and delay attack at 0.7241 target.
Res: 0.7185; 0.7212; 0.7241; 0.7291
Sup: 0.7146; 0.7129; 0.7111; 0.7080
EURUSD
Bearish acceleration that commenced at the beginning of European session broke initial support at 1.1070, daily Kijun-sen / former hourly base and took out more significant 200SMA, which previously acted as strong support.
Extension below 1.1051 cracked next target at 1.1016, rising daily 30SMA and eyes psychological 1.1000 support.
We look for daily close below 200SMA to confirm bearish stance and signal probe below 1.10 handle, towards next strong support at 1.0963, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0709/1.1374 rally, reinforced by 100SMA.
However, daily Slow Stochastic is oversold and bullish signal on reversal higher, could be anticipated.
Former supports at 1.0951/70, now act as initial resistances, which guard pivotal barrier at 1.1140, former consolidation top, which is expected to limit stronger corrective attempts.
Res:1.1051; 1.1070; 1.1122; 1.1140
Sup:1.1000; 1.0963; 1.0900; 1.0865
GBPUSD
Cable started the week with approx 120 gap-lower, on increased concerns that Britain would leave European Union, following comments of influential London Major Boris Johnson, who supported Brexit campaign. Johnson’s comments offset positive sentiment, gained on Friday’s EU-UK agreement, which aimed to keep Britain in the bloc.
Bearish acceleration after choppy consolidation in Asia, surged through initial supports at 1.4147/1.4100 and cracked key support at 1.4078, 21 Jan former low. Corrective phase from 1.4078 to 1.4665 has been completed and close below 1.4078 will confirm break for fresh extension of the downleg from 1.4665, lower top of 04 Feb.
Daily studies hold firm bearish setup and favor extension of the second leg of larger downtrend from 1.7189, peak of 15 July 2014, towards 1.3680, low of June 2001 an key long-term support at 1.3501, low of 23 Jan 2009, which is coming in short-term focus.
Former base at 1.4233/45 zone, lows of 17/19 Feb, is expected to ideally cap recovery attempts.
Res: 1.4133; 1.4180; 1.4245; 1.4303
Sup:1.4055; 1.4000; 1.3945; 1.3900
USDJPY
The pair is in near-term recovery mode, off Friday’s low at 112.29, which was posted on two-day bearish acceleration, which extended pullback from 114.85, 16 Feb high.
Fresh bullish acceleration left inversed hourly H&S pattern, which signals extension towards measured levels at 113.65/85, Fibonacci 138.2% and 161.8% expansion of the wave C that commenced from 112.68, today’s low, as a part of five-wave rally from 112.29 low.
Near-term technicals are gaining traction, however, larger picture remains firmly bearish and signals limited recovery while initial barrier, falling daily 10SMA at 113.56, which capped past four-day descend, stays intact.
Otherwise, daily close above 10SMA, will form bullish Outside Day reversal pattern and signal possible stronger recovery.
Today’s low at 112.68, is expected to contain extended dips and keep fresh near-term bulls in play.
Res: 113.56; 113.65; 113.85; 114.30
Sup :113.00; 112.68; 112.29; 111.65
AUDUSD
The Aussie remains well supported in the near-term and extends bull-leg off 0.7067, low of last Friday, through former recovery high at 0.7185. Fresh strength cracked psychological 0.7200 barrier and looks for final push towards key near-term barrier at 0.7241, 04 Feb former recovery top.
Regain of the latter is needed to confirm completion of 0.7241/0.6972 corrective phase and signal resumption of recovery rally from 0.6825, low of 15 Jan.
Daily studies are in firm bullish setup, with additional bullish signal being given by Friday’s long-tailed daily candle, which confirmed persisting buying interest.
Rising daily 10SMA underpins the action at 0.7129, followed by 20SMA at 0.7107, which reinforces pivotal support, daily Ichimoku cloud top.
Res: 0.7241; 0.7282; 0.7325; 0.7383
Sup: 0.7185; 0.7160; 0.7129; 0.7107
EURUSD
The Euro returned above 1.10 handle, after yesterday’s extended dip to 1.0955, where daily 100SMA contained dip. Yesterday’s trading was shaped in long-legged Doji, which signals indecision, as the second attempt to close below 1.10 handle failed.
Near-term technicals are mixed and suggest further consolidation, with strong resistance at 1.1046 (200SMA), which capped past two-day action, staying intact for now.
Consolidation should be ideally limited by 200SMA, to maintain downtrend from 1.1374, 11 Feb high, which is defined by series of nine consecutive lower highs and lower daily lows.
However, daily Slow Stochastic is reversing from oversold territory and gives bullish signal, which may result in extended correction above 1.1047.
Upside extension should be allowed to 1.1110 (daily 10/20SMA’s bear-cross / near Fibo 38.2% of 1.1374/1.0955 descend), before bears re-assert.
Early upside rejection, however, will signal fresh weakness towards initial target at 1.0955 and daily Ichimoku cloud top at 1.0870.
Fundamentals also give negative tone to the single currency, as Eurozone economy remains weak, with expectations of ECB’s repeated dovish stance, now being boosted by Brexit fears.
All these factors keep short-term focus at the downside, with fresh leg lower expected to commence after current consolidation phase.
Alternative scenario requires firm break above 1.1110 barrier, to sideline immediate downside threats and signal reversal.
Res:1.1032; 1.1047; 1.1075; 1.1110
Sup:1.1000; 1.0988; 1.0955; 1.0870
GBPUSD
Cable trades in a narrow consolidation above fresh seven-year low at 1.3876, posted yesterday on strong three-day fall from 1.4302, 22 Feb weekly high. The pair came under strong pressure on increased Brexit fears and took out significant supports at 1.4078, 21 Jan former low and 1.4000, psychological support, which now acts as strong resistance.
Strong bears so far ignore overextended conditions of daily studies, however, a pause in sharp fall of past three days, could be anticipated, when oversold daily Slow Stochastic reverses higher and generates bullish signal.
Session high at 1.3961 offers initial resistance, followed by psychological 1.40 barrier and 1.4078 (former low and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4385/1.3877 downleg), below which corrective actions should be capped.
Overall bears keep focus at next targets at 1.3720, Fibonacci 161.8% projection of descend from 1.5928, 2015 peak and 1.3680, June 2001 low, with extension to key longer term support at 1.3501, low of January 2009 and bottom of sharp Nov 2007 / Jan 2009 2.1161/1.3501 fall.
Res: 1.3961; 1.4000; 1.4078; 1.4150
Sup:1.3876; 1.3800; 1.3720; 1.3680
USDCAD
The pair fell sharply yesterday, following fresh rally in oil prices, which turned near-term focus lower again. Recovery attempts were capped by descending daily 20SMA at 1.3857 that kept intact pivotal daily Ichimoku cloud barrier at 1.3870.
Yesterday’s close in red, with long upper shadow of daily candle, gives strong bearish signal, as fresh weakness pressures again near-term congestion low at 1.3660 and keeps key support, 1.3640 zone base under pressure.
Bearish setup of daily 10, 20 and 30 SMA’s, maintains bearish stance and limits short-term consolidation phase.
However, prolonged directionless trading could be expected while strong support at 1.3640 base holds. Break here is needed to commence fresh leg lower, an extension of larger downtrend from 1.4688 (peak of 20 Jan.
At the upside, falling daily 10SMA offers initial resistance at 1.3759, followed by 20SMA at 1.3832 and breakpoint at 1.3870 (daily Ichimoku cloud base, penetration of which will signal reversal and confirm base at 1.3640 zone.
Res: 1.3733; 1.3759; 1.3832; 1.3857
Sup :1.3651; 1.3637; 1.3600; 1.3539
AUDUSD
The Aussie dollar remains soft in the near-term and holds below 0.72 handle, following yesterday’s close in red, but with long-tailed daily candle, which suggested strong bids at significant 0.7148 support (Fibo 38.2% of 0.6972/0.7257 upleg), where yesterday’s dip was contained.
Rising daily 10SMA at 0.7161, which underpins larger ascend, is under pressure again and break here and below 0.7148 support, is needed to trigger further easing, signaled by south-heading, reversed daily Slow Stochastic.
Plethora of good supports between 0.7161 and 0.7115, however, suggests limited corrective action off 0.7257 high.
Early reversal and sustained break above 0.7200 barrier is needed to shift focus higher and signal resumption of larger uptrend, on break above 0.7257 peak and 0.7270 (200SMA).
Conversely, expect deeper correction on break below 0.7114 (50% of 0.6972/0.7257, reinforced by 55SMA).
Res: 0.7209; 0.7257; 0.7270; 0.7325
Sup: 0.7148; 0.7131; 0.7114; 0.7081
EURUSD
The Euro remains within narrow consolidation range, holding around daily cloud top at 1.0865, where it closed for the past two days.
Double–Doji confirms strong indecision, as larger descend was temporarily stopped by daily Ichimoku cloud, spanned between 1.0788 and 1.0865.
However, daily structure remains firmly bearish and favors further downside, which requires break through daily cloud base, to resume bears towards key short-term support at 1.0709.
Near-term technicals are generally neutral, with range top at 1.09 zone, reinforced by hourly Ichimoku cloud top, marking the first breakpoint, above which to attract daily MA’s resistances at 1.0932 (100SMA) and 1.0960 (10/55SMA’s bear-cross), where extended rallies should find solid resistance.
Res:1.0900; 1.0932; 1.0965; 1.1000
Sup:1.0851; 1.0823; 1.0808; 1.0788
GBPUSD
Cable closed in long daily bullish candle yesterday, on extension of recovery rally from fresh low at 1.3834, which closed above initial barrier of daily 10SMA and cracked 1.4078/1.4100 barriers (former low / psychological resistance) on today’s extension to 1.4105, session high.
The pair may extend recovery towards 1.4151 (Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4665/1.3834 descend), where correction should be ideally capped, as daily Slow Stochastic is entering oversold zone.
Fresh weakness to face initial support at 1.4029 (daily 10SMA), loss of which to weaken near-term structure and open yesterday’s low at 1.3912 and key near-term support at 1.3834.
Alternative scenario requires sustained break above 1.4151 barrier, to signal extended correction and focus daily 20SMA barrier, currently at 1.4225.
Res: 1.4105; 1.4151; 1.4225; 1.4250
Sup:1.4029; 1.4000; 1.3912; 1.3834
USDCAD
The pair entered narrow near-term consolidation, above fresh low at 1.3383, which left Gravestone Doji yesterday. Prolonged consolidation, with stronger upticks could be expected before larger descend resumes, as crude oil, the pair’s main driver, is consolidating after key barrier was cracked.
Near-term price action was so far capped by the base of hourly Ichimoku cloud, spanned between 1.3446 and 1.3485. Lift above hourly cloud will expose falling daily 10SMA, currently at 1.3579, which is expected to ideally cap and guard daily 20SMA pivot at 1.3714.
Res: 1.3446; 1.3485; 1.3579; 1.3637
Sup :1.3402; 1.3383; 1.3303; 1.3272
AUDUSD
Aussie surged above 0.73 barrier, on today’s fresh extension of yesterday’s strong rally that ended day in long bullish candle that marked strongest daily gain in one month and closed above strong barrier at 0.7257 (former congestion top / 200SMA).
Firm bullish setup of daily MA’s supports further upside, as the way is open towards next key barrier at 0.7380/83, former double-top of 12 Oct / 04 Dec 2015, reinforced by weekly Ichimoku cloud base.
Broken 200SMA offers initial support at 0.7257 and should ideally contain, while extended dips may look for 0.7200 (rising daily 10SMA).
Res: 0.7325; 0.7383; 0.7435; 0.7495
Sup: 0.7279; 0.7257; 0.7200; 0.7157
EURUSD
The Euro traded within 140-pips wide range on Friday, after US jobs data were released, on sharp U-turn from 1.09 low to 1.1041 (daily high), where strong 200SMA barrier capped upside attempts. Bullish daily and weekly close on Friday was a signal of bullish resumption, however, the upside attempts were capped and daily studies remain bearishly aligned.
This keeps in play risk of lower top formation and fresh leg lower, while correction off 1.0823 (last week’s low) remains capped under pivotal barrier at 1.1044/65 (200SMA / 26 Feb lower top, reinforced by descending 20SMA).
Overnight’s trading was entrenched within narrow range, while early European action showed fresh weakness and cracked initial support at 1.0951, (daily 10SMA), which marks the first downside trigger.
Next important support lies at 1.0900 (Friday’s low / near Fibo 61.8% of two-day recovery rally from 1.0823) and break here is needed to confirm reversal and re-expose key near-term supports at 1.0860/23 (daily Ichimoku cloud top / 02 Mar low of the downleg from 1.1374).
Res:1.1000; 1.1044; 1.1065; 1.1100
Sup:1.0942; 1.0900; 1.0860; 1.0823
GBPUSD
Cable ended past week in long bullish candle, as uninterrupted recovery rally from 1.3834 (29 Feb low), peaked at1.4246, just ahead of daily 30SMA at 1.4273 and closed above important Fibo 38.2% of 1.4665/1.3834 downleg at 1.4151.
Corrective easing is under way and probes below 1.4151, with further downside seen likely, as overbought daily Slow Stochastic is turning lower and generating bearish signal, as the pair returned below cracked daily 20SMA at 1.4203.
Next support lies at 1.4088 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.3834/1.4246 upleg), followed by daily 10SMA at 1.4024, above which extended correction should be contained, to keep near-term bulls in play for renewed attempts high.
On the other side, daily studies are still bearish and see risk of lower top formation and fresh bearish acceleration towards key 1.3834, confirmation of which requires sustained break below 1.40 zone (psychological support / near Fibo 61.8% of 1.3834/1.4246 recovery).
Res: 1.4213; 1.4246; 1.4273; 1.4347
Sup:1.4088; 1.4040; 1.4024; 1.3991
USDCAD
The pair hit fresh three-month low at 1.3314, following Friday’s close in red and the seventh consecutive weekly bearish close, on a cycle from 1.4688 (20 Jan peak).
Bearish acceleration comes ticks away from important 200SMA support, which lies at 1.3281 and break lower is needed generate another bearish signal.
Strong recovery signals of Crude oil price, boost Loonie for further strength and deeper correction of pair’s multi-year rally from 0.9405 to 1.4688.
Sustained break below 200SMA will open psychological 1.30 support and Fibo 61.8% of 1.1917/1.4688 rally, which lies just below, at 1.2976.
Oversold conditions of daily studies remain ignored for now, however, hesitation at 200SMA support, cannot be ruled out.
Falling daily 10SMA offers initial resistance at 1.3495, followed by daily 20/100SMA’s bear-cross formation at 1.3653, also Fibo 61.8% of 1.3856/1.3314 downleg.
Res: 1.3400; 1.3495; 1.3521; 1.3653
Sup :1.3314; 1.3281; 1.3000; 1.2976
AUDUSD
The pair consolidates under fresh high at 0.7441, posted on Friday, on five-day rally from 0.7106 trough.
Friday’s close above key short-term barrier at 0.7383 (Oct-Nov 2015 highs) and tops of multi-month congestion, generated bullish signal for possible stronger correction of larger downtrend, as the pair also closed above Fibo 38.2% of 0.8161/0.6825 downleg.
Daily studies maintain firm bullish tone and so far show no significant reaction on overbought conditions.
Extended wave C, which commenced from 0.6972 trough, could travel to 0.7551, its 138.2% Fibonacci expansion.
On the downside, broken FE 100% at 0.7391 (near former range tops), marks immediate support and holds for now, followed by broken weekly Ichimoku cloud base at 0.7360, another good support.
Formation of 10/200SMA’s Golden Cross at 0.7254, underpins the action.
Res: 0.7441; 0.7493; 0.7551; 0.7650
Sup: 0.7391; 0.7360; 0.7325; 0.7254
EURUSD
The Euro failed to break above strong 200SMA barrier, which was cracked on a brief extension to 1.1056 (yesterday’s high).
Quick reversal and daily close below psychological 1.10 support, left Doji candle with long upper shadow, which signaled hesitation and building selling interest.
The notion was confirmed by fresh acceleration lower that broke below hourly cloud (spanned between 1.1000 and 1.0970), threatens pivotal supports at 1.0950/46 (daily 10SMA / daily Ichimoku cloud top), violation of which will confirm reversal and expose next targets at 1.0912/01 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.0823/1.1056 upleg / last Friday’s low.
Daily Slow Stochastic has reversed from overbought zone and shows a plenty of room at the downside. Also, Death Cross pattern, formed on a cross of 20SMA over 200SMA, generated additional pressure.
Res:1.0988; 1.1000; 1.1020; 1.1056
Sup:1.0946; 1.0912; 1.0901; 1.0851
GBPUSD
Double rejection at daily 30SMA confirms strong resistance at 1.4280 zone and possible stronger acceleration lower. Daily Slow Stochastic is reversing in oversold territory and signals further downside, as the pair attacks daily 20SMA support at 1.4180 and hourly Ichimoku cloud base caps at 1.42, for now.
Break below 20SMA would open Fibo 38.2% of 1.3834/1.4281 upleg at 1.4110, loss of which is needed to confirm reversal and expose psychological 1.4000 support, also Fibo 61.8% retracement.
Meantime, extended consolidation between 20 and 30SMA’s cannot be ruled out, before stronger correction starts.
Conversely, sustained break above 30SMA, will signal fresh leg higher of recovery rally from 1.3834 (29 Feb low).
Res: 1.4200; 1.4240; 1.4281; 1.4303
Sup:1.4175; 1.4110; 1.4057; 1.4000
USDCAD
The pair made strong bullish close yesterday, ending day above 1.34 handle and showing strong hesitation at pivotal 200SMA support at 1.3290, which was cracked on past two-day unsuccessful attempts lower.
Falling daily 10SMA, currently at 1.3420, still acts as good barrier, despite being cracked today on brief extension to 1.3440. However, further recovery cannot be ruled out, as daily Slow Stochastic is ascending after reversal from oversold zone and shows more room at the upside. Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3857/1.3258 downleg, marks next strong resistance at 1.3487, which is expected to limit attempts above 10SMA.
Overall structure remains bearish and sees scope for renewed attack at 200SMA, below which to trigger fresh extension of bear-leg from 1.4688 (20 Jan high), towards psychological 1.3000 support.
On the upside, falling daily 20SMA at 1.3601, marks the breakpoint.
Res: 1.3420; 1.3487; 1.3558; 1.3601
Sup :1.3364; 1.3325; 1.3290; 1.3258
AUDUSD
Aussie bounces from session low at 0.7410, where two-day consolidation found support and is forming hourly double-bottom. Fresh recovery rally retraced over 61.8% of 0.7482/0.7408 easing, shifting near-term focus higher, as hourly studies are gaining bullish momentum. Lift above 0.7468, yesterday’s highs, is needed open way for attack at key 0.7482 barrier and resumption of larger recovery rally from 0.6825 (15 Jan low), towards next target at 0.7530, former low of 29 Mar 2015.
Strong bullish setup of daily studies favors further upside and so far ignores overbought conditions.
Alternative scenario requires reversal below near-term consolidation floor at 0.7408, to weaken near-term structure.
Res: 0.7482; 0.7493; 0.7530; 0.7650
Sup: 0.7454; 0.7436; 0.7408; 0.7391
EURUSD
The pair holds positive near-term tone on two-day recovery from 1.1232 low, which came ticks away from pivotal 1.1348 barrier (daily Tenkan-sen line / 50% retracement of 1.1463/1.1232 downleg).
Overall bullish structure favors further upside, as reversed daily Slow Stochastic shows more room for bullish extension.
Sustained break above Tenkan-sen barrier to open 1.1375 (Fibo 61.8%) and psychological 1.1400 barrier. Daily close above 1.1375 is needed to shift focus towards key 1.1463 barrier (12 Apr fresh multi-month high).
Session low at 1.1300, marks initial support, with extended dips expected to find footstep above 1.1260 (daily Kijun-sen line.
Res:1.1320; 1.1348; 1.1375; 1.1409
Sup: 1.1300; 1.1260; 1.1232; 1.1200
GBPUSD
Cable hit strong barrier at 1.4338 (daily Ichimoku cloud top), on today’s extension of two-day recovery from 1.4130 higher base.
Yesterday’s close in long bullish daily candle and above daily Kijun-sen line (1.4258), generated strong bullish signal for further recovery.
The pair met the first of two pivotal barriers at 1.4338/1.4345 (daily cloud top / 12 Apr high), with close above these barriers, required to bring short-term bulls fully in play and spark further recovery of larger 1.4512/1.4004 descend.
Broken daily Kijun-sen line at 1.4258, also Fibo 38.2% of 1.4130/1.4336 upleg, offers solid support, which is expected to ideally contain dips, while return below daily cloud base at 1.4219, will shift near-term bias lower.
Res: 1.4338; 1.4345; 1.4392; 1.4457
Sup:1.4282; 1.4258; 1.4219; 1.4163
USDJPY
The pair trades in extended recovery from yesterday’s low at 107.82, as today’s fresh gains establish above 109 handle.
Near-term studies are in mixed setup, as hourlies hold in full bullish mode, while 4-hour technicals are neutral.
Bigger picture shows negative structure, with price action consolidating within 107.60/109.71 range and fresh recovery rallies, bringing the price in the upper side of near-term range.
Prolonged consolidation ahead of fresh weakness, is seen as favored near-term scenario, while sustained break above psychological 110.00 barrier, also Fibo 38.2% of 113.79/107.61 downleg, is required to signal formation of near-term base and stronger recovery.
Res: 109.71; 110.00; 110.65; 111.00
Sup:108.73; 108.38; 107.82; 107.60
AUDUSD
Yesterday’s bullish Outside Day, generated strong positive signal for today’s fresh upside extension that peaked at 0.7800, posting fresh 10-month high, just ahead of near-term target at 0.7810 (FE 200% of extended wave C from 0.6972).
Firm bullish setup of daily studies favors further upside action, which now eyes 0.7900 (weekly Ichimoku cloud top), on extension above 0.7810 hurdle.
Meantime, correction on overbought near-term studies is under way and expected to find ideal support above 0.7735 (former top / Fibo 38.2% of 0.7629/0.7800 upleg).
Caution on overbought daily Slow Stochastic and Bearish Divergence on Momentum / MACD, which may trigger stronger correction on extension below 0.7682 (Fibo 38.2% of larger 0.7490/0.7800 upleg).
Res: 0.7800; 0.7810; 0.7864; 0.7900
Sup: 0.7735; 0.7720; 0.7682; 0.7608