Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (updated daily) - page 101
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EURUSD
The Euro cracked psychological 1.06 support, on extension of last Friday’s bearish acceleration that left bearish outside day. Strong bearish stance is also confirmed by negative weekly close. Firm break below 1.06 handle, is expected to trigger stops and accelerate towards next target at 1.0519, 10 Apr low with key med-term support at 1.0461, Mar 2015 year-to date low, seen in extension.
Limited corrections are expected, with falling daily 10SMA / Tenkan-sen, which maintains month-long descend, offering strong resistance at 1.07 zone, where upticks should be ideally capped.
Only sustained break above 1.0760, last Friday / 16 Nov peaks, would ease strong bearish pressure and allow for extended recovery.
Res: 1.0661; 1.0706; 1.0727; 1.0760
Sup: 1.0599; 1.0560; 1.0519; 1.0461
GBPUSD
Cable reversed quickly and left long daily bearish candle on Friday, following last Thursday’s upside rejection at strong 1.5340 zone, daily Ichimoku cloud base / 200SMA. Friday’s action was capped by south-turning daily 30SMA, where tower top was left at 1.5308.
Bearish acceleration closed below daily 10SMA at 1.5206 and so far touched 1.5138, below Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5025/1.5334 upleg.
Near-term studies turned bearish on current weakness, while daily bears are re-confirmed on return to firm bearish setup of daily MA’s.
The pair is looking for next support at 1.5100, Fibonacci 76.4% level / hourly higher base, the last obstacle on the way to 1.5025, 06 Nov low and psychological 1.5000 support.
Oversold 4-hour slow Stochastic may trigger extended consolidation, with broken daily 10SMA, currently at 1.5205, expected to ideally cap.
Only break above falling daily 20SMA at 1.5246, would sideline near-term bears.
Res: 1.5175; 1.5205; 1.5246; 1.5260
Sup:1.5138; 1.5100; 1.5025; 1.5000
USDJPY
The pair is gaining traction on bounce from 122.60/70 zone, last Thu/Fri lows and establishes above 123 handle. Fresh rally commenced after bears showed hesitation at 122.60 low, which stayed intact and Doji candle was left on Friday.
Weekly close was also bullish, despite strong selling pressure earlier.
Higher low is now forming at 122.60, for renewed attacks at key 123.74 barrier, peak of 18 Nov, which guards our short-term target at 124.14.
Broken daily 10SMA offers initial support at 123, ahead of 122.60 higher base and pivotal 122.20 higher low, reinforced by rising daily 20SMA.
Res: 123.31; 123.47; 123.74; 124.14
Sup: 123.00; 122.61; 122.20; 121.47
AUDUSD
Aussie pulls back below thin daily cloud base at 0.7170, after strong two-day bullish acceleration peaked at 0.7248. Recovery failed to close above 0.7240, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7380/0.7014 descend, missing another bullish signal, in favor of corrective pullback.
The pair found footstep at 0.7157, double-Fibonacci support, also former consolidation tops, which should act as ideal support and limit near-term bears off 0.7248.
Slow Stochastic of 4-hour chart is entering oversold territory and could be seen as initial reversal signal. However, regain of minimum 0.72 level, which lies near Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.7248/0.7157, is needed to confirm scenario.
Caution on overbought conditions of daily slow Stochastic and MACD / Momentum studies hovering around the midlines.
Return below 0.7157 will trigger fresh bears and signal extension of reversal from 0.7248.
Res: 0.7200; 0.7240; 0.7265; 0.7300
Sup: 0.7157; 0.7136; 0.7100; 0.7067
EURUSD
The Euro probed above 1.06 barrier, on a bounce from yesterday’s marginally lower low at 1.0556. Current action is seen as consolidation and preceding fresh bears towards initial target at 1.0519 and key med-term support at 1.0461, low of 2015, posted in Mar, in extension.
Bearish resumption, on violation of the latter, is seen as likely s/t scenario, as overall bears remain firmly in play.
Near-term consolidation faces good resistance at 1.0628, falling daily 10SMA, which is expected to ideally cap, guarding descending daily 20SMA, currently at 1.0693, reinforcing 1.0688 pivot, spike high of 25 Nov.
Res: 1.0617; 1.0628; 1.0690; 1.0737
Sup: 1.0576; 1.0556; 1.0519; 1.0500
GBPUSD
Cable bounced strongly after cracking psychological 1.50 support yesterday and regained levels above 1.51 handle, on today’s fresh bullish acceleration.
Near-term technicals regained traction on current rally, which so far holds under pivotal barrier at 1.5134, 25 Nov lower top / near Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5334/1.4992 descend, reinforced by falling daily 10SMA.
Sustained break here is required to give initial signal of stronger correction, as daily slow Stochastic reversed from oversold zone and heads north, showing more room for corrective action.
However, strong resistance zone lies ahead, consisting of falling daily 20SMA at 1.5164 and weekly Ichimoku cloud base at 1.5188, which lies just under Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5334/1.4992 and is expected to limit extended rallies, ahead of renewed attack at 1.50 pivot.
Near-term consolidative actions are seen ahead of renewed attempts higher, while return below 1.5048, session low, would signal an end of corrective phase.
Res: 1.5124; 1.5134; 1.5164; 1.5188
Sup:1.5075; 1.5028; 1.4992; 1.4950
USDJPY
The pair regains 123 zone, after overnight’s sharp fall to 122.62, where footstep was found.
Near-term technicals are in neutral mode, while daily bulls remain intact and keep focus at the upside.
Brief break below rising daily 20SMA, which maintains ascend from 122.24 higher low, so far did not affect overall bullish structure. Repeated daily close above 20SMA, to keep intact near-term upleg from 122.24, for fresh attack at 123.32, yesterday’s high and extension towards key near-term barrier at 123.74, 18 Nov high.
Conversely, fresh attempts lower and daily close below 20SMA, currently at 122.80, would sideline immediate upside attempts and signal extended consolidation.
Session low at 122.62, offers initial support, guarding 122.24/20 breakpoint.
Res: 123.32; 123.59; 123.74; 124.50
Sup: 122.80; 122.62; 122.20; 121.56
AUDUSD
Aussie accelerated on RBA overnight, triggering fresh recovery extension, signaled by yesterday’s Bullish Engulfing pattern. Fresh strength emerged above daily Ichimoku cloud top at 0.7214, to peak ticks away from psychological 0.7300 barrier.
Strong bullish setup of daily studies, favors further upside, after near-term consolidation phase, left higher base at 0.7160 zone.
Focus is shifting towards key 0.7380 barrier, peak of 12 Oct, regain of which is needed to confirm higher low at 0.7020 and signal resumption of recovery from 0.6906, low of 04 Sep.
Hourly higher low at 0.7253, offers initial support, ahead of daily cloud top at 0.7214, which is expected to contain extended corrective dips.
Res: 0.7300; 0.7361; 0.7380; 0.7435
Sup: 0.7253; 0.7220; 0.7214; 0.7168
EURUSD
The Euro extends near-term recovery from 1.08 zone, where pullback from 1.0978 peak was contained and hourly higher low formed. The pair broke above hourly Ichimoku cloud top, which now offers initial support at 1.0872.
Yesterday’s positive close improves near-term structure, however, limited upside attempts are seen for now. Mixed setup of daily MA’s and indicators signals no clear direction, with extended range-trading between 1.08 and 1.10 pivots, seen as likely scenario ahead of key FOMC meeting on 16 Dec.
Recovery rally’s high at 1.0978 is reinforced by daily 55SMA, guards psychological 1.10 barrier and 200SMA at 1.1028, which form strong resistance zone.
On the downside, hourly cloud top offers initial support at 1.0872, guarding pivotal 1.08 zone, 07 Dec correction low / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0519/1.0978 rally.
Break of either boundary of the range is needed to define fresh direction.
Res: 1.0948; 1.0978; 1.1000; 1.1028
Sup: 1.0872; 1.0839; 1.0800; 1.0764
GBPUSD
Cable returned back above psychological 1.50 handle, on corrective rally off yesterday’s fresh low at 1.4954. Three-day bearish acceleration that left lower top at 1.5155, retraced Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.4892/1.5157 rally, so far.
Near-term studies remain negative and see limited correction, ahead of fresh push towards 1.4892 target, to mark full retracement of 1.4892/1.5157 upleg.
Firm bearish structure favors further downside, as daily slow Stochastic, which reversed from overbought territory, shows more room at the downside.
Corrective attempts face good resistance at 1.5060 zone, falling daily 10SMA / hourly Ichimoku cloud base, where rallies should be ideally capped.
Extended rallies would open next pivot at 1.5100, 4-hour Ichimoku cloud top, break of which will sideline bears.
Res: 1.5060; 1.5080; 1.5100; 1.5123
Sup:1.5000; 1.4954; 1.4892; 1.4860
USDJPY
The pair extends yesterday’s pullback, after repeated upside rejection at 123.40 zone and shifts near-term focus towards strong support and congestion floor at 122.25 zone.
Initial negative signals were given by break below daily Tenkan-sen / 20SMA at 122.95, however, daily technicals remain bullishly aligned.
Rising daily 30SMA, so far contains at 122.57 and while holding, will keep limited downside risk at 122.25 pivot.
Otherwise, violation of 122.25 support, would signal triple-top formation and trigger stronger bearish acceleration.
Alternatively, bounce and close above 123.00/15 resistance zone, is needed to sideline downside risk and reverse focus higher.
Res: 122.95; 123.15; 123.37; 123.65
Sup: 122.57; 122.25; 122.00; 121.57
AUDUSD
Aussie extends strong reversal off 0.7380 pivotal resistance, after attempts to break the resistance failed and subsequent sharp fall commenced.
Two long red daily candles confirm rising downside pressure, as fresh bears accelerated through 0.7200, 50% of 0.7014/0.7383 rally and next support at 0.7168, daily Ichimoku cloud top. Daily cloud is thin (0.7168/43) and is not expected to provide significant support. Surge through the cloud would open next support at 0.7100, round-figure / Fibonacci 76.4% retracement.
Look for corrective rallies in the near-term, as daily slow Stochastic is entering oversold territory. Daily Tenkan-sen at 0.7275 is expected to ideally cap corrective rallies.
Res: 0.7200; 0.7235; 0.7280; 0.7305
Sup: 0.7168; 0.7143; 0.7100; 0.7067
EURUSD
The Euro eased below 1.10 handle, where daily Ichimoku cloud base lies, following the third consecutive failure at 200SMA at 1.1030. Near-term price action remains capped by descending daily cloud and currently holds within 1.0923/1.1030 congestion.
Daily slow Stochastic is reversing from overbought territory and suggests further easing, however, bullishly aligned daily studies that still keep upside in focus, favor limited dips. Rising daily 10SMA, currently at 1.0868, is expected to contain extended downside attempts, to keep intact pivotal 1.0794 support, higher low of 07 Dec, loss of which would revive bears.
Prolonged consolidation is seen as likely scenario, before renewed attack at daily cloud base and 200SMA. Sustained break here and lift above 1.1100, daily Ichimoku cloud top, is required to confirm bullish resumption.
Res: 1.1000; 1.1030; 1.1059; 1.1100
Sup: 1.0925; 1.0868; 1.0828; 1.0794
GBPUSD
Cable dips below 1.52, on corrective pullback, triggered by Friday’s upside rejection at 1.5238, just under daily Ichimoku cloud base at 1.5263.
Further easing could be anticipated, as daily slow Stochastic is reversing from overbought territory. Pivotal supports lay at 1.5124/06, sideways-moving daily 20SMA / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4892/1.5237 upleg, with break here, expected to signal stronger correction.
Otherwise, extended consolidation could be expected while 1.51 handle holds, ahead of renewed attempts higher.
Penetration of daily cloud base, is needed to expose pivotal barriers: 200SMA at 1.5318 and 19 Nov lower top / daily Ichimoku cloud top ant 1.5334/1.5340 zone, in extension.
Res: 1.5200; 1.5238; 1.5263; 1.5318
Sup:1.5142; 1.5124; 1.5106; 1.5065
USDJPY
The pair bounces off last Friday’s low at 120.56, which was hit on quick acceleration after repeated failure to sustain gains above 200SMA. Rallies were capped by parallel-running daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen lines, with subsequent easing, leaving red daily candle with long upper shadow and long bearish weekly candle.
This gives fresh bearish signals of further extension lower, after reversal from 123.70 zone, broke below former consolidation top at 122.20, forming lower platform.
Fresh bearish tone is developing on daily chart studies and favors further downside. Fresh weakness may be preceded by corrective rallies, off temporary support at 120.60 zone, offered by daily Ichimoku cloud base.
Friday’s peak, also being reinforced by falling daily 10SMA, is expected to limit rallies.
Conversely, extended rally and close above daily 20SMA at 122.60, is needed to neutralize bears and shift near-term focus higher.
Res: 121.34; 121.56; 122.20; 122.60
Sup: 120.60; 120.22; 120.00; 119.40
USDCAD
Loonie remains under strong pressure, as crude oil continues to fall, with fresh 11-year low being posted at 1.3755, last Friday, on expectations of Fed’s rate hike.
The pair hit high, ticks away from initial target at 1.3760, Fibonacci 161.8% expansion of extended wave C from 1.3036.
Strong bullish setup of technicals on all timeframes, keeps upside in focus. Next targets lay at 1.3825 and 1.3930, Fibonacci 176.4% and 200% expansion, respectively.
However, fresh rallies may be preceded by corrective action, as daily RSI and slow Stochastic are strongly overbought, but no bearish signal being generated so far.
Look for rising daily SMA, currently at 1.3516, as ideal support to contain dips.
Overall bulls would be dented in case of stronger pullback below 1.3420/00 support zone, rising daily 20SMA / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.2829/1.3755 rally.
Res: 1.3760; 1.3825; 1.3930; 1.4000
Sup: 1.3699; 1.3617; 1.3583; 1.3530
EURUSD
The Euro peaked at 1.0937 yesterday, on two-day rally from 1.08 base, with recovery being so far capped by falling daily 55SMA, which guards more significant daily Ichimoku cloud base at 1.0950.
Near-term technicals are gaining traction and support fresh attempts higher. On the daily chart, indicators are in positive territory, with reversed slow Stochastic, heading north and showing more room upside.
Penetration into daily cloud, is needed to signal bullish resumption towards psychological 1.10 barrier and 1.1058 pivot, lower top of 15 Dec.
Low of narrow Asian range at 1.0900, marks initial support, with hourly Ichimoku cloud top, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0801/1.0937 recovery at 1.0854, expected to ideally contain dips.
Conversely, break below thin hourly cloud, would risk return to 1.08 base.
Res: 1.0921; 1.0937; 1.0950; 1.1009
Sup: 1.0900; 1.0885; 1.0854; 1.0841
GBPUSD
Cable holds in extended, narrow-range consolidation, above fresh eight-month low at 1.4863, where weekly bear-channel support line contained strong fall from 1.5237, 11 Dec peak.
Technicals remain negative and favor bearish resumption, but prolonged consolidation, with corrective upticks, is expected to precede, as daily slow Stochastic is oversold.
Initial resistance lies at psychological 1.50 level, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5237/1.4863 downleg, where corrective rallies should be ideally capped.
Falling daily 20SMA, also mid-point of 1.5237/1.4863 descend, marks pivotal barrier and sustained break here would be a signal of stronger correction.
Res: 1.4927; 1.4948; 1.5000; 1.5050
Sup:1.4863; 1.4830; 1.4812; 1.4737
USDJPY
The pair returns to directionless near-term mode, holding within narrow range today, after posting fresh low at 120.82, where daily Ichimoku cloud base contained. Yesterday’s trading was shaped in long-legged Doji and entrenched within daily cloud (120.82/121/49), signaling indecision.
Overall structure remains weak and sees risk of bearish resumption through daily cloud base, towards pivotal support at 120.33, higher low of 14 Dec.
On the upside, daily cloud top is reinforced by sideways-moving 200SMA and marks trigger for stronger recovery, on sustained break higher.
Res: 121.29; 121.50; 122.18; 122.50
Sup: 121.03; 120.82; 120.56; 120.33
AUDUSD
The pair establishes above 0.72 handle on today’s strong acceleration higher, which extends two-day recovery from 0.7095, 17 Dec low.
Fresh rallies probe above daily 20 SMA, also 50% of 0.7383/0.7095 fall and focus next barrier at 0.7280 zone, lower tops of 15/16 Dec and just above Fibonacci 61.8% retracement.
Daily technicals are gaining traction, with bullishly aligned near-term studies keep upside in focus.
Close above 0.7280 is needed to confirm scenario.
On the downside, session low at 0.7180, reinforced by daily 10SMA, offers solid support, above which corrective actions should be contained. Only loss of 0.7150, hourly higher base and Fibonacci 61.8% of recovery from 0.7095, would neutralize near-term bulls.
Res: 0.7280; 0.7300; 0.7332; 0.7383
Sup: 0.7198; 0.7180; 0.7150; 0.7130
EURUSD
The Euro consolidates within 1.0868/1.0982 range, holding in daily Ichimoku cloud, after recovery leg from 1.0801, low of 17 Dec, stalled under psychological 1.10 barrier.
Bullish daily studies favor resumption of the upleg from 1.0801, for final attack at key 1.1058/55 barrier, former recovery top of 15 Dec, reinforced by daily Ichimoku cloud top and 100SMA. Break here is needed to signal resumption of larger recovery from 1.0519, low of 03 Dec and confirm trough at 1.0801.
Near-term studies are bullishly aligned, with correction on overbought slow Stochastic, expected to precede fresh attacks at near-term range top.
Daily Tenkan-sen offers initial support at 1.0929, near Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0868/1.0977 upleg, which is expected to ideally contain dips.
However, extension of corrective pullback should be contained above daily cloud base at 1.0888, to keep near-term bulls in play.
Otherwise, reversal under daily cloud and rising daily 20SMA, currently at 1.0875, will weaken the structure and expose range’s lower boundary for test.
Res: 1.0982; 1.1009; 1.1042; 1.1058
Sup: 1.0929; 1.0909; 1.0888; 1.0875
GBPUSD
Cable entered near-term consolidation under 1.4943 high, where recovery rally from fresh eight-month low at 1.4803, was capped by initial barrier, falling daily 10 SMA.
Daily slow Stochastic is heading north, on reversal from oversold territory and sees room for further upside extension. However, firmly bearish daily studies, suggest limited upside action, before bears resume for clear break below cracked weekly channel support, currently at 1.4834, for final push towards key med-term support at 1.4563, annual low, posted on 14 Apr.
Bullishly aligned near-term studies see potential for attempts above 10SMA barrier, towards next significant levels at 1.4969, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5237/1.4803 downleg, reinforced by 4-hour Ichimoku cloud base and psychological 1.50 barrier, where extended rallies should be limited.
Only close above falling daily 20SMA, currently at 1.5016, would sideline bears and signal stronger correction.
Res: 1.4943; 1.4969; 1.5000; 1.5020
Sup:1.4931, 1.4889; 1.4856; 1.4836
USDJPY
The dollar bounces from fresh low at 120.05, posted today, on extension of steep fall from 123.53, 18 Dec peak.
Last Friday’s fall left long bearish candle and closed below former low of 14 Dec at 120.33, signals fresh extension of bear-leg from 123.53.
Psychological 120 support holds for now, with further recovery action signaled by oversold daily slow Stochastic. Initial barrier lies at 120.89, daily Ichimoku cloud base and 23.6% of 123.53/120.05 downleg, followed by Fibonacci 38.2% retracement at 121.38 and 200SMA at 121.58, which is expected to cap extended rallies.
On the downside, daily close below cracked Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 118.05/123.74 rally at 120.22 and sustained break below 120.00 handle, is needed to confirm bearish resumption.
Res: 120.89; 121.38; 121.58; 121.79
Sup: 120.33; 120.05; 119.60; 119.39
AUDUSD
Recovery rally from 0.7095 low struggles at strong 0.7280 barrier, former tops of 15/16 Dec and Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7383/0.7095 downleg. Near-term price action consolidates within narrow range, with bullish setup of daily studies being supportive, but overbought slow Stochastic, warning of possible recovery stall.
Sideways-moving daily 20SMA offers initial support at 0.7241, followed 0.7207, 4-hour chart trough and Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.7095/0.7280 upleg, loss of which would be initial signal of stronger pullback.
Downside breakpoint lies at 0.7160 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and thin daily Ichimoku cloud.
Conversely, daily close above 0.7280 will give initial bullish signal of further retracement of 0.7383/0.7095 downleg.
Res: 0.7280; 0.7315; 0.7332; 0.7383
Sup: 0.7253; 0.7241; 0.7207; 0.7166
EURUSD
The Euro was down 10.28% against the US dollar in 2015, ending year under psychological 1.10 barrier. Low of the year 2015 at 1.0461, posted in March, remained intact, despite repeated attempts lower, which were contained just above 1.05 handle.
Weekly and monthly technicals remain bearish and favor further downside attempts, after completion of med-term consolidation, entrenched within 1.0461 and 1.1712 range, where the pair spent most of the time in 2015.
On the other side, daily studies gained bullish tone, on bounce from December’s low at 1.0519 and point at the upside.
Short-term price action is holding between 1.08 higher base and 1.1058, 15 Dec high, where recovery rally was capped by sideways-moving 200SMA.
These marks initial sup/res levels, with break of either side of the range, needed to define fresh direction.
Near-term price action entered daily Ichimoku cloud, base of which offers immediate support at 1.0830, guarding 1.08 pivot. Return below 1.08 higher base, would turn focus towards key supports at 1.0519 and 1.0461, lows of 03 Dec and 13 Mar 2015.
Otherwise, violation of strong resistances at 1.1030/60 zone, 200SMA / daily Ichimoku cloud top / 15 Dec recovery top, would open way for stronger recovery towards net barrier at 1.15 zone, lower top of mid-Oct and key barrier at 1.1712, high of 2015.
Res: 1.0990; 1.1030; 1.1060; 1.1120
Sup: 1.0800; 1.0720; 1.0645; 1.0520
GBPUSD
Cable is in strong downtrend since June 2015, following reversal of recovery rally from 1.4564, 2015 low, which stalled at 1.5928. Bearish acceleration broke below 1.4833, bear-channel support on the weekly chart and looks for full retracement of 1.4564/1.5928 rally.
Studies on larger timeframes hold firm bearish setup and keep downside in focus, with consolidation ahead of key 1.4564 support, expected on overextended daily indicators.
Falling daily 10SMA offers initial resistance at 1.4840, followed by 1.4900, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5237/1.4690 downleg and lower top of 24 Dec at 1.4943, where extended correction should be capped.
Only sustained break above psychological 1.50 barrier, would signal stronger correction and neutralize immediate downside threats.
Res: 1.4840; 1.4900; 1.5000; 1.5095
Sup:1.4690; 1.4630; 1.4564; 1.4500
USDJPY
The pair traded within 115.80/125.85 congestion during the year 2015, after initial Jan / May rally stalled at 125.85 and subsequent pullback retraced over 61.8% of entire rally from 115.80, 2015 low.
Daily and weekly studies turned into bearish mode, on renewed weakness from 123.75, mid-Nov lower platform, heading towards initial support at 118.00, Feb/May base and 15 Oct low.
Violation of the latter will expose annual lows at 116/115.80 zone, which also mark the floor of year-long congestion and pivotal support zone, loss of which would signal stronger correction of broader ascend from 78.00 zone, lows of 2012.
Significant bearish signal was generated on break below, 119.76, multi-year bull-trendline, drawn off 78.00.
Psychological 120 level, offers initial resistance, ahead of lower top at 120.64, which guards daily Ichimoku cloud base at 120.89 and is expected to ideally cap rallies.
Double Death-Cross of 10/200 and 20/200SMA’s, confirms strong bearish pressure and marks the upper breakpoint at 121.60.
Res: 120.00; 120.65; 120.89; 121.60
Sup: 118.69; 118.00; 116.86; 116.00
AUDUSD
Aussie was down 11% from Jan 2015 high at 0.8180, to 0.6906, low of the year, posted in September. The pair trades in short-term consolidative phase above 0.6906 low, following sharp two-legged fall that commenced from 2014 high at 0.9443 and found temporary ground at 0.6906.
Consolidation is expected to precede fresh leg lower, extension of multi-year downtrend from 1.1079, peak of 2011.
Today’s fresh bearish acceleration, signals formation of lower top at 0.7325, 31 Dec high and shifts focus towards higher low of 17 Dec at 0.7095, loss of which to expose another pivot at 0.7014, higher low of 10 Nov.
Thin daily Ichimoku cloud en-route, should not mark serious obstacle for freshly established near-term bears.
On the daily chart, bullish alignment of technicals is losing traction, with violation of initial pivot at 0.7095, seen as trigger for further weakness, which would expose lower boundary of short-term congestion at 0.7014.
Firmly bearish weekly and monthly studies support scenario of limited upside action, ahead of fresh leg lower.
On the upside, top of recovery rally from 0.6906, at 0.7383, marks the upper breakpoint, above which, extended correction could be anticipated.
Res: 0.7232; 0.7299; 0.7325; 0.7383
Sup: 0.7153; 0.7095; 0.7014; 0.6936
EURUSD
The Euro returned below broken bear-channel resistance line and daily 20SMA, above which it closed on Friday’s strong rally.
Friday’s daily candle with very long tail, showed renewed buying interest, however, fresh bulls in Asia that initially peaked at 1.0967, were short-lived, keeping former tops at 1.0840 zone, cracked on Asian spike to 1.0967 high, still as good resistance.
Setup of daily MA’s is mixed, along with daily indicators, hovering around their midlines and slow Stochastic entering overbought territory that indicates possible recovery stall.
Fresh weakness off 1.0967 high was for now contained by hourly cloud top at 1.0870, which should act as ideal reversal point, to keep near-term bulls in play. However, lift above 1.09 barrier is seen as minimum requirement to signal fresh bulls and re-expose 1.0940/1.0967 pivots.
Regain of lower platform at 1.0990, is needed to confirm bullish resumption.
Conversely, penetration into thick hourly Ichimoku cloud, spanned between 1.0825 and 1.0870, would be seen as bearish signal, which needs confirmation on attack at clods base.
Res: 1.0900; 1.0938; 1.0967; 1.0990
Sup: 1.0870; 1.0852; 1.0825; 1.0800
GBPUSD
Cable bounces from fresh 5 ½ year low at 1.4492, posted today on brief probe below psychological 1.45 support. Overall structure remains firmly bearish, as the pair closed on Friday below the last strong obstacle at 1.4563, 2015 low.
The wave C, which commenced from 1.4943, 24 Dec lower top, met its 100% Fibonacci expansion at 1.4501 and could travel to 1.4332, 138.2% expansion, with key longer-term support at 1.4230, 20 May 2010 low, also Fibonacci 161.8% expansion, being in short-term focus.
Consecutive strong bearish weekly close, supports the notion.
However, corrective rally on oversold daily studies, is expected to precede. Initial barrier lies at 1.4600, base of thin hourly cloud, with extended rallies to be capped under 1.4665, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.4943/1.4492 downleg, reinforced by falling daily 10SMA, which lies just above resistance.
Alternatively, stronger correction could be anticipated on extension above 1.4771, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement.
Res: 1.4600; 1.4643; 1.4665; 1.4701
Sup:1.4519; 1.4492; 1.4450; 1.4400
USDJPY
The pair posted fresh 4 ½ month low at 116.67 today, on resumption of steep 6-day downleg from 120.64 lower top, which forms the wave C of larger downtrend from 123.53, 18 Dec peak.
Long bearish weekly candle signals strong bears in play for further downside.
The pair eyes next targets at 116.13, spike low of 24 Aug 2015 and 115.84/56, lows of Jan 2015 and Dec 2014, which also marks Fibonacci 138.2% expansion and floor of multi-month congestion.
Break here is needed to signal major reversal of multi-year uptrend from 75.55, Oct 2011 low.
Structure remains bearish overall and favors attack at 115.84/56 breakpoint zone, however, oversold slow Stochastic is turning higher and could spark stronger correction, before bears resume.
Highs of last Thu/Fri at 118.75, reinforced by falling daily 10SMA, which currently lies at 119.11, should ideally cap rallies.
Any stronger recovery attempts need to close above psychological 120 barrier, to sideline near-term bears.
Res: 117.90; 118.75; 119.29; 120.10
Sup: 117.50; 117.08; 116.67; 116.13
AUDUSD
Aussie consolidates strong 5-day fall, which briefly extended today and posted new low at 0.6925, just ahead of key 0.6906 support, low of 2015. The pair is looking for full retracement of multi-month 0.6906/0.7383 correction phase, to resume larger bear-trend from 1.1079, peak of July 2011.
Meantime, corrective bounce on oversold conditions is likely to precede final push to 0.6906 breakpoint, as daily slow Stochastic is reversing in oversold territory.
Good offers lay at 0.7080/95 zone, last Thu/Fri highs, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.7325/0.6925 downleg and former low of 17 Dec and should be ideally capping recovery attempts.
Res: 0.7020; 0.7080; 0.7095; 0.7150
Sup: 0.6925; 0.6906; 0.6850; 0.6800
EURUSD
The pair remains under pressure and moves lower, approaching initial support at 1.08, last Friday’s post NFP low. Bears are taking control on daily technicals, as probe below daily 55SMA at 1.0830, is turning setup of daily MA’s into full bearish mode and indicators are moving into negative territory.
Firm break below 1.0810/00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.0713/1.0967 upleg / Friday’s low, which marks the first pivot, would open next significant support at 1.0772, daily Ichimoku cloud base, loss of which to expose key 1.0709/13 higher base, for full retracement of recovery leg from 1.0709, 05 Jan low.
Res: 1.0858; 1.0885; 1.0940; 1.0967
Sup: 1.0800; 1.0770; 1.0725; 1.0709
GBPUSD
Cable is in near-term consolidation above fresh multi-year low at 1.4350, posted yesterday, just ahead of June 2010 low at 1.4344 and our target at 1.4331, Fibonacci 138.2% expansion of extended wave C from 1.4943.
Further upside attempts could be expected as daily studies are oversold and slow Stochastic reversed and emerged from oversold territory. However, overall bears are looking for fresh extension lower, after completion of consolidative phase.
Former target and lows of 08/11 Jan at 1.4500, offer initial barrier, followed by 1.4576, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4943/1.4350 downleg and falling daily 10SMA at 1.4613, below which, extended corrective attempts should be capped.
Renewed weakness through 1.4350/31 pivots, would open way towards next target at 1.4230, trough of Apr 2010.
Res: 1.4473; 1.4500; 1.4576; 1.4613
Sup:1.4416; 1.4350; 1.4331; 1.4230
USDJPY
The pair resumes recovery above 118 barrier, which acted as strong resistance and capped past two days recovery attempts.
Today’s fresh strength sees risk of formation of Bear-Trap reversal pattern, with daily close above 118 handle, required to confirm.
Extension above 118.00 pivot and 118.20, Fibonacci 38.2% of 120.64/116.67 downleg, is looking for next pivot at 118.63, falling daily 10SMA and 50% retracement, break of which will generate fresh bullish signal and expose 119.12, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level.
Otherwise, upside rejection and return below 118 handle would neutralize idea of reversal pattern formation and subsequent stronger correction.
Res: 118.63; 119.12; 119.70; 120.00
Sup: 118.00; 117.62; 117.21; 116.67
AUDUSD
The pair probes above near-term consolidation top at 0.7034, as fresh strength emerges after two long-legged daily candles that signaled initial hesitation.
Daily slow Stochastic is heading north, after reversing from oversold territory and generates bullish signal.
Extension above psychological 0.7000 barrier, requires daily close above here, following double failure in past two days, to signal stronger recovery.
The pair now trades in the fourth, corrective wave from 0.6925, as a part of five-wave descend that commenced from 0.7383, 04 Dec high. The wave could extend to 0.7155, according to wave principles, where daily Ichimoku cloud base and daily 20SMA are expected to cap extended correction.
However, overall structure remains firmly bearish and is expected to commence fresh leg lower on attempts at key 0.6906 support, on completion of near-term corrective phase.
Res: 0.7073; 0.7095; 0.7125; 0.7155
Sup: 0.7034; 0.7000; 0.6972; 0.6950
EURUSD
The Euro extends two-day recovery from 1.0787, hourly higher base, formed on downside rejection towards pivotal 1.0776 support, 21 Jan low. Recovery rally penetrated into daily Ichimoku cloud, on probe above cloud base at 1.0859. Rally was so far capped by 30SMA at 1.0880, keeping intact psychological 1.0900 barrier.
Near-term studies are bullishly aligned, while daily indicators hold in neutral territory and MA’s show mixed setup and daily Bollinger bands are contracting
Downside remains in focus in the near-term, however, return to 1.0787/76 pivots, is needed to confirm bearish resumption and expose key short-term support at 1.0709, 04/05 Jan lows and the lower boundary of short-term range, entrenched between 1.0709 and 1.0990.
Conversely, break above 1.09 barrier would sideline downside risk, but sustained break above 1.0925, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.1058/1.0709 descend, is needed to confirm bullish resumption and expose daily Ichimoku cloud top at 1.1006.
Res: 1.0883; 1.0925; 1.0983; 1.1006
Sup: 1.0848; 1.0817; 1.0787; 1.0776
GBPUSD
Cable is trading in extended corrective fourth wave off 1.4078 low, which peaked at 1.4365, on yesterday’s acceleration higher. Recovery so far holds below pivotal 1.4408/35 barrier, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4943/1.4078 downleg / falling daily 20SMA, which are expected to ideally cap recovery.
Near-term studies are bullishly aligned, while overall picture remains firmly bearish.
Daily RSI is turning lower, momentum studies are negative and slow Stochastic is attempting to turn lower at overbought zone’s border.
Broken daily 10SMA and Tenkan-sen line at 1.4263/51 zone, now offer strong support and break below here is needed to confirm reversal and turn focus towards 1.4078, 21 Jan low.
Res: 1.4365; 1.4408; 1.4435; 1.4510
Sup:1.4290; 1.4250; 1.4171; 1.4145
USDCAD
The pair consolidates above 1.4100 handle, after posting fresh low at 1.4042, on yesterday’s bearish acceleration.
Reversal of oil prices, stopped yesterday’s strong fall, but latest oil dip, did not show stronger impact on USDCAD’s near-term price action.
However, yesterday’s close in long red candle that formed bearish outside day, gives negative signal, as the pair closed below important supports: daily 20SMA at 1.4213 and Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3808/1.4688 at 1.4144.
Setup of daily MA’s is mixed, indicators are bearishly aligned, but slow Stochastic is oversold and is attempting to turn higher.
This suggests further consolidation, with negative sentiment in play, while initial barrier, daily 20SMA caps. Break here would ease immediate downside risk and expose current congestion top and upside pivot at 1.4323, reinforced by reversed daily 10SMA, currently at 1.4343.
On the downside, yesterday’s low and congestion base at 1.4042, marks initial support, followed by psychological 1.40 and more significant 1.3978, Fibonacci 38.2% of Oct-Jan 1.2829/1.4688 rally, loss of which will confirm bears.
Primary trend remains firmly bullish, but overbought conditions on larger timeframes, suggest deeper correction.
Res: 1.4154; 1.4195; 1.4212; 1.4289
Sup: 1.4259; 1.4207; 1.4160; 1.4112
AUDUSD
The pair rides on the fourth, corrective wave, which commenced from 0.6826 and is part of five-wave descend from 0.7383, 04 Dec 2015 high.
Fresh acceleration higher, probes above daily 20SMA at 0.7019 and approaches ideal reversal point at 0.7055 zone, where the fourth wave should end, according to wave principles.
Barrier is reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, which lies at 0.7075 and also marks the mid-point of 0.7325/0.6825 downleg.
Daily slow Stochastic is approaching overbought territory, which may support reversal theory.
Otherwise, extended fourth wave will look for next barrier at 0.7085, descending daily 30SMA and next pivot at 0.7134, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7325/0.6825 downleg.
Broken daily 20SMA offers initial support at 0.7020, followed by session low at 0.6990 and daily 10SMA at 0.6952.
Res: 0.7055; 0.7075; 0.7100; 0.7134
Sup: 0.7020; 0.6990; 0.6952; 0.6917