Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (updated daily) - page 95
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EURUSD
The Euro regained positive tone in the near-term picture, following yesterday’s positive close, which occurred above 1.25 handle. Bounce from 1.2442 hourly higher base, peaked at 1.2544, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.2576/1.2442 upleg, capped by descending daily 20SMA and bear-trendline off 1.2884 peak. Daily MACD/RSI bullish divergence still signals further upside which requires sustained break above the trendline resistance and 1.2576, 04/17 Nov peaks, to spark stronger recovery. Otherwise, prolonged range-trade, with downside risk seen on violation of 1.25 support, could be expected in the near term.
Res: 1.2546; 1.2576; 1.2610; 1.2683
Sup: 1.2510; 1.2480; 1.2442; 1.2425
GBPUSD
Cable came under pressure and fully reversed 1.5591/1.5734 corrective rally, on renewed probe below 1.56 handle. Negative tone prevails on all timeframes and favors eventual clear break below 1.56, to open way towards next target at 1.5375, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.4812/1.7189 ascend. However, hesitation at psychological support cannot be ruled out, as near-term studies are approaching oversold territory. Rallies through initial 1.5700 barrier, to face strong resistance at 1.5734, corrective peak and just above 38.2% retracement of 1.5939/1.5591 descend. Only break here and 1.58 barrier, also 61.8% of 1.5939/1.5591 descend, would delay and signal near-term base formation.
Res: 1.5700; 1.5734; 1.5765; 1.5800
Sup: 1.5623; 1.5590; 1.5550; 1.5500
USDJPY
The pair remains firm and posts fresh multi-year highs, after clearing psychological 117 barrier. Yesterday’s positive close, with past two days candles with longer lower shadow, confirm strong bullish tone, which focuses immediate target at 117.95, Oct 2007 peak and psychological 120 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of multi-year 147.68/75.55 descend, expected to come in near-term focus, previous peaks at 117 zone, offer immediate support, with 116.30/00 zone expected to ideally contain dips.
Res: 117.95; 118.50; 119.00; 119.60
Sup: 117.00; 116.80; 116.30; 116.00
AUDUSD
The pair remains under pressure and probes below 0.8646/36 higher low / 61.8% retracement of 0.8539/0.8794 corrective rally, after completion of hourly H&S pattern. Negative near-term structure favors further weakness for full reversal of the rally, seen on clear break below 0.8636. Next supports lay at 0.86, round-figure and 0.8589 trough, below which way opens towards key 0.8539, 07 Nov low. Yesterday’s positive close so far looks like a pause in the downmove and only daily close above 0.8745 lower platform would sideline immediate downside risk.
Res: 0.8646; 0.8680; 0.8700; 0.8745
Sup: 0.8620; 0.8600; 0.8589; 0.8539
EURUSD
The Euro averts immediate downside risk, on a bounce from 1.2360 lows, where double-bottom is under formation and offering solid support for now. Yesterday’s positive close signals possible stronger recovery attempts, however, bounce stays for now capped under initial barrier and first breakpoint at 1.2450, broken bull-channel support / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2597/1.2360. Break here to open 1.2480, 50% retracement / daily Tenkan-sen line and psychological / Fibonacci 61.8% barrier at 1.2500, above which to confirm recovery. Hourly indicators are struggling above the midlines, while negative tone prevails on a larger timeframes and sees limited upside action for now. Unless the price returns above 1.25 barrier, which would expose pivotal 1.26 barrier in the near-term, prolonged consolidative phase is expected to precede fresh attempts lower. Break below 1.2360 base to resume broader downtrend and look for key targets at 1.2100, trendline support and 1.2042, low of 24 July 2012.
Res: 1.2450; 1.2480; 1.2500; 1.2541
Sup: 1.2414; 1.2395; 1.2372; 1.2360
GBPUSD
Cable remains in extended consolidation above fresh lows at 1.5590, with current range tops being reinforced by descending 4-hour 55EMA. Yesterday’s Outside Day, along with crack of initial dynamic barriers of the daily chart, 10SMA and Tenkan-sen line, would mark near-term base and signal stronger recovery. Today’s close above congestion tops at 1.5735, is seen as minimum requirement to spark corrective action. Regain of the next significant barrier at 1.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5939/1.5588 downleg, to confirm and open pivotal 1.5939, lower top. However, caution is required as near-term studies show improvement but larger picture remains bearish. Repeated failure at range ceiling, to signal prolonged consolidation, with downside risk in play.
Res: 1.5712; 1.5735; 1.5765; 1.5805
Sup: 1.5646; 1.5624; 1.5590; 1.5550
USDJPY
Near-term structure weakened, as recovery attempts off 117.33 low, where the pair attempts higher base, failed to sustain gains above 118.35 lower tops and subsequent weakness increases risk of fresh attack at 117.33. The price probes below hourly cloud base at 117.75, the last significant support ahead of 117.33, below which to complete hourly failure swing for stronger pullback, as daily studies are overbought. Sustained break below 117.33 to open 117.10/00, daily Tenkan-sen line / psychological support, with 116.51, Fibonacci 38.2% of 112.56/118.96 ascend, in extension. Alternative scenario requires break above 118.56, overnight’s recovery rejection, to re-focus pivotal 118.96 top.
Res: 118.20; 118.56; 118.71; 118.96
Sup: 117.68; 117.33; 117.10; 117.00
AUDUSD
Near-term structure turned bearish after the pair completed 5-day corrective rally from 0.8564 to 0.8720. Return to 0.8564 low, also cracked near-term bull-trendline, connecting 0.8539/0.8564 lows, exposing pivotal 0.8539 support, 07 Nov low. Yesterday’s close in red confirms negative stance for eventual completion of 0.8539/0.8794 correction. Break lower to signal an end of near-term consolidative phase and resumption of larger downtrend, towards next targets at psychological 0.8500 level and 0.8460, bear-trendline, connecting 2008 peak at 0.9848 and Jan 2014 low at 0.8658.
Res: 0.8568; 0.8600; 0.8618; 0.8660
Sup: 0.8500; 0.8460; 0.8441; 0.8400
EURUSD
The Euro accelerated from 1.2440 trough and eventually broke above 1.25 barrier. Rally spiked at 1.2530, however, subsequent consolidation was not able to hold 1.25 handle, where the pair closed yesterday. Corrective pullback should be contained at 1.2440 higher low, to keep the structure intact for fresh attempts through 1.25 barrier. Completion of Three White Soldiers reversal pattern and break above 1.2480, daily 10/20SMA’s bull-cross / daily Tenkan-sen line, requires close above 1.25, to confirm reversal and resume recovery rally towards next barriers at 1.2545, bear-trendline, drawn off 1.2884 peak, then 1.2563, daily Kijun-sen line, ahead of breakpoint at 1.2597, 19 Nov lower top of larger descend. Conversely, extension of pullback from 1.2522 high and close below 1.2440 higher low / 50% retracement of 1.2360/1.2530 upleg, to sideline near-term bulls and mark top at 1.2530.
Res: 1.2500; 1.2530; 1.2545; 1.2563
Sup: 1.2465; 1.2440; 1.2400; 1.2371
GBPUSD
Cable broke above near-term range tops and cracked important 1.58 barrier, psychological level / Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5939/1.5588 downleg / daily 20SMA. Corrective action off fresh high at 1.5823, is under way and should be ideally contained at 1.5735, Former range tops / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5588/1.5823 upleg, while extension below 1.5700 support, 50% retracement, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line, would undermine near-term bullish structure. Fresh attempts above 1.5800/23 barriers, to open 1.5884, daily Kijun-sen line, for possible full retracement of 1.5939/1.5588 bear-leg, on extension.
Res: 1.5776; 1.5800; 1.5823; 1.5856
Sup: 1.5745; 1.5735; 1.5700; 1.5678
USDJPY
Near-term structure remains weak and the pair cracked base at 117.33, following recovery rejection at 118.56 and subsequent descend. Repeated close in red suggests further weakness, which requires close below 117.33/20, previous base / daily Tenkan-sen line / daily 20SMA, to be confirmed. Fresh extension of the pullback from 118.96 peak, to look for 116.80, 4-hour cloud base, then 116.51, Fibonacci 38.2% of 112.56/118.96 ascend, below which, acceleration towards 115.44 trough, could be expected. Corrective rallies should be ideally capped under 118 barrier, just above mid-point of 118.56/117.25 downleg.
Res: 117.56; 117.75; 118.00; 118.28
Sup: 117.20; 117.00; 116.80; 116.51
AUDUSD
The pair bounces after break below key 0.8539 support, also probed below psychological 0.85 level. However, yesterday’s positive close could be a signal of stronger recovery, in case the price returns above 0.8636, daily Tenkan-sen line and 50% of 0.8794/0.8784. Further recovery and close above 0.8700, daily Kijun-sen line, to confirm false break and re-focus pivotal 0.88 barrier. Otherwise, corrective rally is expected to leave lower top, ahead of fresh weakness, as overall picture remains bearish and keeps short-term focus at the downside.
Res: 0.8636; 0.8565; 0.8700; 0.8720
Sup: 0.8561; 0.8528; 0.8511; 0.8478
EURUSD
The Euro remains under pressure, with overnight’s fresh weakness erasing 20-pips gap higher opening and retesting 1.2425 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.2360/1.2530 upleg. Near-term higher base is forming here, for consolidative phase, before fresh attempt towards 1.2400 level, Fibonacci 76.4% and short-term base at 1.2360, which contained last week’s fresh attempts lower. Sustained break below 1.2360, to resume larger descend from 1.3992 and open 1.2100, bull-trendline, connecting 2005/2010 lows and pivotal 1.2042, July 2012 low.
Last Friday’s close in red and below daily Tenkan-sen line, favors further downside attempts, which may be delayed by extended consolidative action above 1.2360, signaled by positive weekly close. Weak technicals of lower timeframes, keep the upside attempts limited for now, as overall picture remains bearish, however, lift above last week’s high at 1.2530 and bear-trendline, drawn off 1.2884, peak of 15 Oct at 1.2540, would delay bears for attack at key 1.2597 barrier, November’s high and consolidation range top, above which to confirm double bottom at 1.2360 and spark stronger corrective action.
Res: 1.2488; 1.2500; 1.2530; 1.2566
Sup: 1.2425; 1.2400; 1.2331; 1.2300
GBPUSD
Cable remains under pressure, with fresh weakness under way and probing below near-term base at 1.5590. Last Friday’s long red candle signals continued pressure from 1.5823, recovery rejection, with weekly close in Doji with long upper shadow, suggesting further consolidation with strong selling interest. The notion is supported by close below Fibonacci 61.8% of larger 1.4812/1.7189 ascend, with fresh extension of the third wave from 1.6522, 19 Sep lower top, expected to travel to 1.5387, its 100% Fibonacci expansion, with psychological 1.5000 support, expected to come in near-term focus. However, further hesitation ahead of clear break below 1.5590 base, could be expected, with 1.5700, 50% retracement of 1.5823/1.5583 downleg, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line, offering good resistance, ahead of lower top at 1.5740, where extended rallies should be capped.
Res: 1.5700; 1.5740; 1.5770; 1.5800
Sup: 1.5600; 1.5583; 1.5550; 1.5500
USDJPY
The pair maintains positive near-term tone and eventually completed 118.96/117.22 corrective phase, by cracking 119 barrier. Positive daily and weekly close, keeps bulls in play for final push towards psychological 120 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% of multi-year 147.68/75.55 descend and lower boundary of strong 120/124 resistance zone. Corrective action on overbought near-term studies, so far tested 118.00 zone, hourly higher base and just above Fibonacci 61.8% of 117.22/119.12 upleg, where dips should be contained, to keep bulls in play for fresh attempts higher. Otherwise, loss of 118 handle, would signal prolonged consolidative action, with pivotal support at 117.22, expected to come in focus.
Res: 118.58; 119.02; 119.50; 120.00
Sup: 118.00; 117.67; 117.22; 117.00
AUDUSD
The pair comes under increased pressure, following weekly gap-lower open, after last Friday’s negative close occurred ticks above psychological 0.85 handle. The second long red previous week’s candle, also suggests further weakness, as the pair’s fresh extension lower took out bull-channel support at 0.8460, opening way towards psychological 0.80 support, on close below the latter. Consolidative action above fresh lows near 0.84 handle, is expected to precede fresh weakness. Session high at 0.8480, also previous low of 26 Nov, offers initial resistance, ahead of 0.8500 and last Friday’s high at 0.8538.
Res: 0.8500; 0.8538; 0.8574; 0.8600
Sup: 0.8415; 0.8400; 0.8380; 0.8350
EURUSD
Yesterday’s bumpy ride, which bounced from the levels near 1.24 support and probed briefly above 1.25 barrier, ended day in Doji candle and near the mid-point of entire rally from 1.2417 to 1.2505, trading in triangular consolidation. This keeps near-term tone in neutral mode, ranging between 1.24 and 1.25 boundaries, as the price consolidates around daily 20SMA and Tenkan-sen line. Appearance of daily MACD bullish divergence is supportive for fresh attempts higher, with sustained break above 1.25 hurdle and pivotal 1.2530 high, also bear-trendline, drawn off 1.2884 high, required to shift near-term focus higher and test the upper part of larger 1.2360/1.2597 range. Otherwise, rejection at 1.25 barrier, would increase risk of retesting 1.2417/00 lows and possible return to pivotal 1.2360 support and near-term base.
Res: 1.2480; 1.2505; 1.2530; 1.2566
Sup: 1.2451; 1.2430; 1.2400; 1.2360
GBPUSD
Cable rallied strongly yesterday after brief probe below 1.5590 base. Bounce to 1.5761, near Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 1.5823/1.5583 descend, was capped by descending daily 20SMA, which, for now, keeps pivotal 1.5800/23 barriers intact and downside risk in play. Hourly technicals are still positive and need to hold above 1.5700, session low, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line / 10 SMA, to keep the upside in focus, as 4-hour studies are neutral. Sustained break below 1.57 handle to increase risk of return to 1.5590 base, otherwise, fresh upside attempts will remain on the table, however, limited action is expected while 1.5823 breakpoint stays intact.
Res: 1.5761; 1.5800; 1.5823; 1.5856
Sup: 1.5700; 1.5672; 1.5651; 1.5625
USDJPY
The pair shows positive signals, as recovery rally from yesterday’s pullback’s low at 117.85 accelerated and probes above 118.63, Fibonacci 61.8% of 119.12/117.85 descend. The pullback was contained by rising daily 10SMA / Tenkan-sen line, which keeps the structure positive, despite yesterday’s close in red, after the price cracked psychological 119 barrier. Hourly indicators are moving into positive territory, which, along with positive 4-hour studies, keeps focus at the upper targets and keeps near-term correction floor and pivotal support, intact. Break above 119.12 high to expose psychological 120 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of multi-year 147.68/75.55 descend.
Res: 118.82; 119.12; 119.50; 120.00
Sup: 118.50; 118.21; 118.00; 117.85
AUDUSD
The pair enters near-term corrective phase off yesterday’s fresh low 0.8415. Rally filled yesterday’s gap lower and tested pivotal barrier at 0.8538, last Friday’s high and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.8613/0.8415 downleg, break of which to spark further recovery and open 0.8613 breakpoint, 27 Nov high / daily 20SMA. Yesterday’s positive close, signals consolidation of the latest weakness from 0.88 zone, as immediate downside risk is sidelined. However, overall picture remains bearish and keeps the downside attempts favored, but bears may be further delayed in case of clearance of pivotal 0.8613 barrier.
Res: 0.8540; 0.8567; 0.8600; 0.8613
Sup: 0.8500; 0.8468; 0.8415; 0.8400
EURUSD
The Euro remains under pressure, as yesterday’s fresh weakness left lower top at 1.2505 and subsequent acceleration lower fully retraced corrective rally and broke below 1.2360 base. Yesterday’s long red candle, with negative technicals on all timeframes, favors further downside, as the pair met its next target at 1.2325, Fibonacci 161.8% expansion of the wave from 1.2505 lower top. Psychological 1.23 support offers immediate support, with near-term focus at
break and close below pivotal 1.2360 support, to extend the wave from 1.2505 lower top, towards 1.2325, its Fibonacci 161.8% expansion and psychological 1.23 support, with focus at 1.2106, trendline support and 1.2042, July 2012 low. Daily 10/200SMA’s bear cross at 1.2450 should cap extended corrective rallies.
Res: 1.2390; 1.2418; 1.2450; 1.2475
Sup: 1.2321; 1.2300; 1.2284; 1.2250
GBPUSD
Near-term structure is negatively aligned, after corrective rally was capped by descending daily 20SMA at 1.5761 and fresh weakness pushed the price in the lower part of near-term 1.5590/1.5823 range. Yesterday’s close in red and below 1.57 handle, daily Tenkan-sen line / 10SMA, confirms near-term bearish stance and eyes 1.5590 base for retest. Break here to confirm an end of consolidative phase and resumption of larger downtrend, towards target at 1.5373, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.4812/1.7189 ascend. Rallies should be ideally capped at 1.5700/23 barriers, Tenkan-sen line, 20SMA, while only sustained break above 1.5761 would neutralize immediate downside risk.
Res: 1.5668; 1.5700; 1.5723; 1.5761
Sup: 1.5617; 1.5590; 1.5550; 1.5500
USDJPY
The pair remains supported, as extension of recovery rally from Monday’s corrective low eventually broke above 119 barrier. Near-term price action is consolidating above 119, now support, for final push towards targets at 120.00/12, psychological barrier / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of multi-year 147.68/75.55 descend. Yesterday’s positive close supports the notion, with price action being supported by rising daily 10SMA / Tenkan-sen line at 118.30, where stronger corrective actions should be contained.
Res: 119.42; 119.61; 120.00; 112.12
Sup: 119.11; 118.80; 118.45; 118.30
AUDUSD
The pair remains under pressure and continues to trend lower, as overnight’s acceleration eventually broke below 0.84 support. Yesterday’s red candle with long upper shadow, confirms downside pressure, with the wave from 0.8794, 17 Nov lower top, capable to travel to 0.8268 and 0.8174, its 138.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci expansion, with psychological 0.8000 support being in short-term focus. Session high at 0.8465, offers strong resistance, with Monday / yesterday’s highs at 0.8530/40, seen capping stronger rallies.
Res: 0.8431; 0.8465; 0.8500; 0.8540
Sup: 0.8386; 0.8350, 0.8315; 0.8300
EURUSD
The Euro consolidates under initial 1.23 barrier, after last Friday’s sharp fall post US payroll data, when the price reached fresh low at 1.2270, followed by daily / weekly close in red. Overall tone remains bearish and favors further downside, on completion of consolidative phase. Short-term target at 1.2042, July 2012 low is focused. Corrective action above 1.2300, to expose strong barriers at 1.2360, former base and 1.2400, daily 10SMA / Tenkan-sen line, where extended rallies should be ideally capped. Only break above 1.2455, 04 Dec peak, reinforced by daily 20SMA, would sideline immediate bears.
Res: 1.2300; 1.2340; 1.2360; 1.2400
Sup: 1.2250; 1.2218; 1.2200; 1.2177
GBPUSD
Cable came under pressure last Friday and eventually broke below strong support at 1.5590, where near-term base kept the downside protected for three weeks. Daily / weekly close in red and below 1.5590 base, supports further bears towards short-term target at 1.5373, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.4812/1.7189, one-year rally. The third wave from 1.6522 lower top, on the price currently rides, could travel to 1.4953, its 138.2% Fibonacci expansion, once psychological 1.5000 support is taken out. Near-term bears are maintained by descending daily 20SMA / Tenkan-sen line at 1.5690 and only break here would delay bears for test of pivotal 1.5761, last week’s high.
Res: 1.5590; 1.5621; 1.5641; 1.5690
Sup: 1.5500; 1.5442; 1.5400; 1.5373
USDJPY
The pair continues to trend higher, with last Friday’s post-data acceleration higher, closing above 121 handle and overnight’s fresh extension, approaching psychological 122 barrier. Corrective easing on overbought near-term studies, probes below initial support at 121.30, hourly higher base, for psychological 121 support and 120.87, Fibonacci 38.2% of 119.32/121.83 upleg. Correction should find support above 120.28, Fibonacci 61.8%, to keep fresh attempts higher in play. However, overextended daily studies warn of possible stronger pullback, with no reversal signals being generated yet, but bulls may be paused in case of close below 120 handle.
Res: 121.67; 121.83; 122.00; 122.50
Sup: 121.00; 120.87; 120.28; 120.00
AUDUSD
Negative daily / weekly close keeps the pair under pressure for fresh descend below psychological 0.83 barrier, where overnight’s corrective attempts were capped. Extension of the third wave from 0.8794, through its Fibonacci 138.2% expansion target at 0.8268, now focuses 0.8178, 161.8% expansion, with psychological 0.8000 support, coming in near-term focus. Overall negative structure could be interrupted by brief corrective actions, as near-term studies are oversold. Corrective attempts above 0.83 barrier, to face 0.8415, previous low and should not exceed 0.8530, hourly lower platform, in case of extended rallies.
Res: 0.8300; 0.8354; 0.8415; 0.8465
Sup: 0.8200; 0.8178; 0.8122; 0.8100
EURUSD
The Euro stabilizes above 1.23 handle, extending corrective rally from fresh low at 1.2244. Yesterday’s positive close suggests further near-term recovery, following higher low formation at 1.2290. Next strong barriers lay at 1.2360, former base and 1.2390 lower platform, reinforced by daily descending 10SMA, clearance of which is required to improve still negative 4-hour structure, for possible attack at pivotal 1.2435/55 barriers, daily 20SMA / 04 Dec lower top. However, overall picture remains bearish and sees limited corrective action, ideally to be capped under 1.24 handle, before fresh attempts lower.
Res: 1.2360; 1.2390; 1.2435; 1.2455
Sup: 1.2290; 1.2270; 1.2244; 1.2200
GBPUSD
Cable trades in near-term corrective phase off yesterday’s fresh low at 1.5539, with dynamic barriers of daily 10 / 20 SMA’s / Tenkan-sen line, also yesterday’s high, at 1.5680, being tested. Near-term technicals are gaining traction, however, daily close above pivotal 1.5680 barrier, is required to confirm resumption of near-term bulls for further recovery. Lower tops at 1.5720 and 1.5761, also Fibonacci 61.8% / 76.4% of 1.5823/1.5539 downleg, offer resistances, ahead of pivotal 1.5823, 27 Dec high. Alternatively, downside pressure is expected to increase, if 20SMA stays intact.
Res: 1.5680; 1.5720; 1.5761; 1.5800
Sup: 1.5624; 1.5600; 1.5577; 1.5539
USDJPY
The pair corrects last week’s acceleration, which peaked at 121.83, with extended pullback, probing below psychological 120 support. Dark Cloud Cover pattern formation, signals corrective action, as daily RSI starts to reverse from overbought territory and the price approaches significant supports at 119.52/32, daily Tenkan-sen line / 10SMA. Close below here to confirm near-term correction and open 119.00, previous peak / Fibonacci 61.8% of 117.22/121.83 ascend, with pivotal support at 117.22, 27 Nov higher low, expected to come in near-term focus. Conversely, bounce through 121 lower top, to sideline immediate downside risk.
Res: 120.20; 120.50; 121.00; 121.30
Sup: 119.52; 119.32; 119.00; 118.56
AUDUSD
The pair remains under pressure and extended descend close to psychological 0.8200 barrier, after leaving a lower platform at 0.83 zone. The pair travels on extended third wave from 0.8794, which now focuses 0.8178, its 161.8% Fibonacci expansion, with psychological 0.8000 support, coming in near-term focus. Overall negative structure favors further downside, however, oversold larger timeframe’s studies suggest corrective action in the near term.
Res: 0.8314; 0.8354; 0.8415; 0.8465
Sup: 0.8222, 0.8200; 0.8178; 0.8122
EURUSD
Last Friday’s positive close above daily 20SMA, maintains positive near-term tone, with price action trading in prolonged consolidation, being for now capped under initial barrier at 1.2500. Positive weekly close also favors further upside, as bounce from 1.2360 higher base, keeps pivotal 1.2500/30 points in focus and near-term price action trading in the upper part of 1.2360/1.2493 congestion. Eventual break above 1.2530, to open key near-term barrier at 1.2597, 19 Nov high and signal stronger recovery on a break. However, daily studies are still weak and suggest further consolidation, while 1.25 barrier caps. Key near-term support lies at 1.2360 and break here expected to turn near-term picture bearish.
Res: 1.2476; 1.2493; 1.2505; 1.2530
Sup: 1.2432; 1.2400; 1.2382; 1.2368
GBPUSD
Cable maintains positive near-term tone and attempts at congestion tops at 1.5755, where daily Kijun-sen line reinforces barrier. Daily studies are mixed, however, bullish signal was given by positive weekly close. Break above initial 1.5755/61 barriers, is required to open key 1.5823 resistance, high of 27 Nov, above which, to trigger stronger recovery. Initial support and range floor lies at 1.57 zone and is reinforced by daily 20SMA, with break here expected to sideline upside attempts, for pullback towards pivotal support at 1.5650 zone, higher base and 50% retracement of 1.5539/1.5755 rally.
Res: 1.5755; 1.5761; 1.5800; 1.5823
Sup: 1.5700; 1.5681; 1.5650; 1.5624
USDJPY
Near-term tone is neutral/negative, with price action holding within a narrow range and last Friday’s Doji, confirming near-term indecision. On the other side, weekly bearish Engulfing, could be seen as initial signal for further reversal, which requires of initial supports at 117.82 , daily Kijun-sen line and 117.43/22 lows, to spark further weakness. Conversely, break above consolidation top, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line, would sideline immediate downside risk.
Res: 119.05; 119.54; 119.90; 120.15
Sup: 118.00; 117.76; 117.43; 117.22
AUDUSD
Near-term tone remains negative, as the pair completed 0.8222/0.8373 consolidative phase and probed psychological 0.82 support. Negative daily/weekly closes, keep the downside under pressure and favor resumption of larger downtrend, which is focusing 0.8000/0.7945, psychological support / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of multi-year 0.6007/1.1079 rally. Initial barrier lies at 0.8300 while only break above 0.8373 correction high, would sideline downside pressure.
Res: 0.8280; 0.8300; 0.8340; 0.8373
Sup: 0.8200; 0.8150; 0.8100; 0.8050
EURUSD
The Euro accelerated lower yesterday, on widely expected ECB’s QE decision. Continuation of strong bearish trend, marked fall of 2.1% yesterday, with fresh lows 12-year lows being posted on today’s extension below psychological 1.13 support. Yesterday’s long red candle maintains downside pressure, along with strong bearish tone, persisting on all timeframes. The pair now looks for 1.1210 target, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 0.8225/1.6039 ascend, with psychological 1.10 support, seen in extension. Oversold conditions, however, suggest consolidative / corrective actions, ahead of fresh push lower. Initial resistances lay at 1.1370, Asia’s high, then, ahead more significant 1.1458, former low of 16 Jan, with extended corrective attempts, expected to be limited at 1.1540, previous consolidation floor. Near-term focus now shifts towards Sunday’s elections in Greece, which may have further negative impact on the Euro.
Res: 1.1312; 1.1372; 1.1400; 1.1458
Sup: 1.1250; 1.1210; 1.1100; 1.1000
GBPUSD
Cable came under pressure with yesterday’s acceleration through previous low at 1.5032, completing near-term consolidative phase and fresh weakness eventually broke psychological 1.50 support. Yesterday’s long red candle, after repeated Dojis, confirms bearish resumption, with weekly close below 1.50 handle, required to open way towards next targets at 1.4910, Fibonacci 61.8% of multi-year 1.3501/1.7189 ascend and March 2013 higher base at 1.4830/12. Initial resistance lies at 1.5025, session’s high, ahead of solid barriers at 1.5050 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5210/1.4955 downleg and previous range lows, which should ideally cap corrective attempts. Only extension and close above 1.5100/20 zone, round-figure barrier / Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5210/1.4955 / yesterday’s intraday low, would undermine near-term bears and shift focus towards upper breakpoints above 1.52 barrier.
Res: 1.5025; 1.5050; 1.5100; 1.5120
Sup: 1.4950; 1.4910; 1.4830; 1.4812
USDJPY
The pair regained some strength and bounced from 117.20 zone, where higher base is forming, however, lack of momentum to eventually clear pivotal 118.85 barrier, keeps the price action with limited upside. While daily 20SMA and Ichimoku cloud top cap rallies, near-term movements are expected to hold within 117.20/118.85 range. Mixed studies, with positive near-term and still weak daily technicals, are supportive for such scenario in the near-term. Sustained break and weekly close above 118.85, is required for bullish resumption towards next barriers at 120 zone, while repeated failures to break higher, would keep the downside vulnerable.
Res: 118.85; 119.30; 119.57; 120.00
Sup: 118.00; 117.73; 117.20; 116.90
AUDUSD
The pair remains under pressure and extends weakness of past one week, to complete 0.8031/0.8293 corrective phase and eventually take out psychological 0.8000 support, on today’s acceleration lower. As the pair is poised for strong weekly bearish close, end of week’s trading below 0.8000 handle, is needed to confirm strong bearish stance for further weakness. Immediate target at 1.7945, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.6007/1.1079, 2008/2011 ascend, is under pressure, with break here to open next support at 0.7700, July 2009 low. Corrective rallies are expected to hold below 0.8135, yesterday’s high and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.8234/0.7963 downleg.
Res: 0.8031; 0.8066; 0.8097; 0.8135
Sup: 0.7963; 0.7945; 0.7900; 0.7850
GOLD
Spot gold returns into near-term consolidative range, trading around the mid-point of 1279/1307 range, after yesterday’s rally probed again above psychological 1300 barrier and also posted marginally higher high at 1307. Daily close above 1300 handle, was not enough for sustained break for now, with further consolidation required ahead of fresh push higher. Overall positive near-term technicals and strong bullish tone of daily / weekly studies, sees the upside favored for eventual rally above 1300 level, towards initial targets at 1322/24, lower tops of 08 Aug / 17 July 2014. Consolidative action is required to hold above 1280 low, to keep bulls in play and prevent stronger pullback, expected on break and close below 1280 handle.
Res: 1297; 1305; 1307; 1319
Sup: 1290; 1285; 1280; 1272