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Wayne,
I assume Red vertical line is for sells& Blue for buys (as long the
lines are close/over the dots), right?
MukeshNo Mukesh, they change all the time generally to try and pick last High and low.
The point is to notice which dots they line up with, also look for the green vertical dotted lines which generally signal the start or end to a short swing.
Don't worry too much if it is confusing, just watch the lines to line up with the dots, then look to see what that dot is telling you? The lines are just a confirmation and could be showing either long or short.
I also like to change Float from the default of 50 to 100, just so that it looks a little further back than just the last 50 candles.
Cheers
Wayne
although im not particularly worried about the "original" hedge i spoke about, hearing some of the negative (fear) comments led me to spend some face time with a Cray, to work out something similar --- but simpler, easier, safer and with less drawdowns to all my little friends out there !
its based on the natural reversal periods that happen intraday, everyday and has a lowered pip tp point.
the lessened profit is made up for by there being at least THREE safe points to use this method, and once proven one simply doubles the lots used per trade.
being quite serious, if it works as it has been for the past few days, $1500 - 2000 or more (depends on your account) is easily possible per week.
On another note, being the fool im considered to be, I took the demo accnt I had shown a few weeks ago and got rid of everything but $250 in equity to see what being a poor rookie is all about. Presently the account is up to $364.00 with much more of the trading day left, so maybe I will be able to write a book --- "how i turned $250 into owning St. Louis in 4 weeks !", and i shall achieve fame and fortune and be number one on the ny times book list, beating Cramer by miles !
I am a tad excited by what it does (today the hedge was taken out in half an hour, both ways) and will publish after my first $10,000 or my ferret says its good, whichever comes first !
mp --- ONE of the really good guys and I live here !
LOLYou are a true saint, mp6140. As soon as you publish your methods, I will start working on writing the EA for everybody.
Azmel.
I quoted MP from 1/22/08. Based on this logic, the bullish movements we have seen in gbp/usd and the carry trades the last couple days is because price is being purposefully driven up to get a better sell price when the rate cut is not as drastic as expected tomorrow? That is how I am reading it at least.
====================================================
YOU THINK ?
LOL
LOTS OF NEWS !
THAT was a dose of reality forex --- the way the game is played !!
mp
Mp,Others
Sorry i'm a bit late with this question but it's not so clear for me how you know when you have a trend. (up/down)
Please confrim if this is what you do for trend confirmation:
For Up trend: ?
MA Simple 12 - up
MA Exponential 2 over MA Simple 5
MACD(1,5,10) Up
For down the opposite.
hey victor --- certainly can be used for trends on the longer timeframes (the shorter change too often !) but please note that the 12ma is exponential -- the only sma i use is the ma5 and 20
kinda take a look at the 20 and 50 moving average and everythings relationship to it and you can then determine trend, using the macd to warn of any trend change coming, but I also use the LRC (which is nothing but support and resistance AND trend direction as my PRIMARY decision --- use both together and youre golden !
Now look at what i'm thinking (if you want)-Mathematicaly speaking. Let's say we have a system that produces 70% good signals and 30% bad signals without using a stop loss. A good signal is one that closes in the near future with a + and a bad one is one that doesn't close in the near future or doesn't close at all until the finish of our testing period.
I will have to reread this part a few times cause i dont understand !
Now for this given system i open each time a trade. If it's a good one it's ok the problems appear only if it's a bad one where i do what i said i do in my last message here.
(Reminder: open a trade in the opposite direction "hoping" that the price will come back to close both hedge positions with +1 or 0-so no loss).
Actuly instead of closing the position and remaining with the loss i postpone the problem.
At level 2 -3% to miss and at lvl 3 1%. If the tp of that rule can include 3 consecutive hedge positions that you would be a milionare.
well, dont know if i understand this either, but a system is developing that should make decent profits and while i might be premature, there may well be NO risk at all !
Thanks, Victorall i need is some time !
mp
No Mukesh, they change all the time generally to try and pick last High and low.
The point is to notice which dots they line up with, also look for the green vertical dotted lines which generally signal the start or end to a short swing.
Don't worry too much if it is confusing, just watch the lines to line up with the dots, then look to see what that dot is telling you? The lines are just a confirmation and could be showing either long or short.
I also like to change Float from the default of 50 to 100, just so that it looks a little further back than just the last 50 candles.
Cheers
WayneI got that. Thanks Wayne.
Mukesh
Mp,
About those things you say you don't understand i wanted to explain:
If you have a system that makes let's 70% good trades and 30% bad. Instead of using a sl i use the hedge.
Which in the worst case gives me another 70% from those 30 before to be right, or 30% of those 30 before to be wrong.
If your trend definition would have "strength" included than a no-loss strategy would be very easy to implement.
If the distance between hedge is increased -that is called from what i know "increasing triangle" which you don't want but could happen.
so the formula for increasing triangle would be 30% of 30% before of 30% before ....and it strives (tends) to 0. (in the case i'm speaking about) So the loss goes to 0.
Averaging down is a concept that doesn't work with this methodology because is the opposite way of doing things. (i don't say you can't win with it)
So what one need is only a trend that confirmes to be a strong trend that can break the hedges, that's all.
Victor
Mp,
About those things you say you don't understand i wanted to explain:
If you have a system that makes let's 70% good trades and 30% bad. Instead of using a sl i use the hedge.
Which in the worst case gives me another 70% from those 30 before to be right, or 30% of those 30 before to be wrong . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . If the distance between hedge is increased -that is called from what i know "increasing triangle" which you don't want but could happen.
so the formula for increasing triangle would be 30% of 30% before of 30% before ....and it strives (tends) to 0. (in the case i'm speaking about) So the loss goes to 0.
Averaging down is a concept that doesn't work with this methodology because is the opposite way of doing things. (i don't say you can't win with it)
ok, got what youre saying, which is probably why i have so many hedge trades on my trading panel at any one time, both the GU hedge i speak of and "defensive" trades --- without putting it into words, its a simple suvival and profit making move when i find myself in trouble because I hold and do NOT get stopped out !
That said, at "some" time in the future (and this varies depending on situation) "averaging" (either up or down) may very well be needed to get rid of the "final" trade ---- without showing a history of a bad trade gone good, words are probably not a good means of explanation in this situation, as SO many variables are involved, including just pure dumb luck !
I have a trade right now that is not so good but i took another same direction trade when the currency had dropped significantly --- looking at it, I will not achieve breakeven on the first trade for a longer period than i wish to wait and so will take a small loss on the trade, but it will be more than made up with the second trade i took, judging from where i figure the tp point shall be ! I also took the counter trade as it dropped (hedge), so that profit exists also, leaving me nicely ahead on the three trades, even though a small loss on one of them !
What DOES help is a knowledge of trend and where the silly wabbit will be heading, as you can then hold with no fears, just have to wait !
So what one need is only a trend that confirmes to be a strong trend that can break the hedges, that's all.
Victorenjoy and trade well
mp
You are a true saint, mp6140. As soon as you publish your methods, I will start working on writing the EA for everybody. Azmel.
Azmel, I'm running the EA you posted earlier and it appears to work fine on forward testing. Although the SL seems to have problems, it appears to be based on a fix price that you would input rather then on # of pips from open price. Can you fix?
mp6140, interested in seeing your hedge strategy. please post when you get a chance.
hi, how do i change the parameters of the zig zag indicator so it looks exactly like the swing_ZZ indicator i downloaded from post 1 of this thread? thank you so much. please reply.
regards
I am trying to understand this system. Seem pretty straightforward.
I used the 3 Level ZZ Semafor instead of the ZZ Swing because it shows the swings within swings.
But, to me, it looks like the first entry is a bounce off a #3-dot following by a cross of the megatrend line.
Subsequent entries are a bounce off the #2-dot.
The #1-dots may yield a profit, too.