Cost Averaging System - page 19
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Maji,
I am thinking of using different approach then conventional theory of probability.
Have you read "The (mis)behaviour of markets" A fractal view of risk, ruin and reward by Benoit B. Mandelbrot?
Please if you have time, take a look at it.
Regards
Z
Maji,
I am thinking of using different approach then conventional theory of probability.
Have you read "The (mis)behaviour of markets" A fractal view of risk, ruin and reward by Benoit B. Mandelbrot?
Please if you have time, take a look at it.
Regards
ZI am not sure if I believe that the market is fractal in nature. Take a look at the 1 minute charts and the 1 hour charts. They don't look same to me.
I dont try to argue or anything just my opinon...
Leave the 1m chart, specialy in MT without the tick data
look at 15min vs 4hrs
4hrs vs weekly
They speak for themselves.
Hell look at the universe... why galaxies cluster togheter? By "normal" theory of probability and law of phisics they should have been spread according to the bell curve.
Cheers
Z
PS Now if you ask me how we can apply the fractal theory to the EA... damn I dont know, still thinking of ideas
I dont try to argue or anything just my opinon...
Leave the 1m chart, specialy in MT without the tick data
look at 15min vs 4hrs
4hrs vs weekly
They speak for themselves.
Hell look at the universe... why galaxies cluster togheter? By "normal" theory of probability and law of phisics they should have been spread according to the bell curve.
Cheers
Z
PS Now if you ask me how we can apply the fractal theory to the EA... damn I dont know, still thinking of ideasZ,
We are not arguing here, just exchanging ideas
As for fractal nature, I am not sure how to use it, just like you. However, I read some crap by Bill Williams and that left a bad taste in my mouth about fractals. All his exotic indicators and other BS does not work as a part of a mechanical system. Actually, he used to have a site that gave out recommendations and it did so bad that he closed it down. You can Google and read about it.
Anyway, I want to keep this thing as simple as possible. If it works, then great. If it does not, then I will not complicate the EA just trying to make it work. In that case it will mean that this idea does not work for the shorter time frames that we are looking at.
Thanks.
Hi Maji,
Started test for new version from last night on 15 min chart, only one sell trade (0.1 and 0.2 lots) are opened for EUR/CHF, and profits with 36 pips. Do you have many trades opened?
BTW, you are using Moving Average as trend indicator, and compare it with current close value. Perhaps, it is better to check the slope of MA. If the slope is positive, up trend, else down trend.
There seems a bug in the method CloseShorts(). It will also close "Buy" orders.
Thanks!
Great catch Forex... it was indeed a bug. However, it won't matter in this case because no long trades are open when any short trade has been initiated. Anyway, I will correct that one when I make any more changes.
I think this system trades very infrequently as it is looking for short term trend exhaustions. As for trend slopes, what do you propose?
Thanks.
Great catch Forex... it was indeed a bug. However, it won't matter in this case because no long trades are open when any short trade has been initiated. Anyway, I will correct that one when I make any more changes.
I think this system trades very infrequently as it is looking for short term trend exhaustions. As for trend slopes, what do you propose?
Thanks.Hi Maji,
For simple calculation, perhaps, the difference of current MA and previous MA may be used for slope, if it is positive and larger than some value (for example, 2 pips), then we consider it as up trend, other wise if it is negative, and the abs value is larger than some value, we consider it as down trend.
Attached is an indicator called "JMASlope", if it is negative, it is down trend in the time frame, otherwise it is up trend. Please take a look at it and see if you could use it.
Today, my test showed another set of sell positions on EUR/CHF (0.1, 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5 lot). The open price is:
1.5930
1.5926
1.5933
1.5935
You see, the prices for additional positions are very close, and some time, it is lower than the initial position (for sell). It seems break your initial purpose of "Average down" approach. I think it is better to have the PipStep for the additional positions.
I also think the condition to open position seems too narrow, for two days, I just have two positions opened for EUR/CHF. If we can have one or more positions per pair per day, it would be better.
Keep going!
Thanks!
Scott
Scot,
Thanks for the ideas. I will take a look at it. However, that JMA slope is way too complicated for a simple thing like cost averaging. However, I will take a look at the slope concept and maybe use a pipstep along with RSI to add to positions.
Maybe the idea of using trend is not that great. Just using RSI might be better.
I will see what I can come up with.
Thanks.
Maji,
what do you think of implementing a hedge trade strategy to protect account instead of stoploss or equity protection.?
Maji, what do you think of implementing a hedge trade strategy to protect account instead of stoploss or equity protection.?
I am not that big on hedging. I have tried that a few times, but I ended up hedging at real market turns. Thus, the open trades were huge losers.