Happy Birthday July
So I turned 32 in July, and as with age wisdom comes about.
I aslo realised that I will never be able to play like the big boys, because I had a 50/50 chance be able to gauge where and what a currency will do tomorrow or the next day. Which just about made me relise that after a year of Forex that 50/50 makes me no better than anyone picked of the street and asked: "do you think the exchange rate will go up or down tommorrow?".
And that made me change my system and all again. (Half the crowd about now packs up and leaves cause they heard this whole "I'll never change this one" before.)
Most importantly, I had to make sure my short term, daily, trades where firing on all four clinders. I needed to find something that will tell me in that specific trading day whatthe trend is, what and where to enter and exit.
I then looked at 30min charts and 1hr charts, After all, the higher time frame charts are made up of smaller tf ones. I found for me that on the 30 min, the 10 smooth ma, blue on the CHF chart below, was the best and on the hourly chart the 13 smooth ma, orange in the pic below, was best. That is what determeines my daily trend and daily trades and nothing else. The light blue line was the 60min 3sma, but I soon realised that it was only telling me exactly what price was telling me. Guess not wise enough just yet hey.
You'll see on the pic I have the macd window. The histogram is of 15min, orange line is for 30min and black line is for 60min.
Oh yeah, I had a go at CCI's for a while here.
Sorry for my message.
When I DL indi "bollinger squeeze with MACD"?
Ok, so now we're in August, have I wised up some more?
You bet your sweet ass I have.
Let me discuss fibs. Fibs are vital.
We were taught to draw fibs from the high to the low.........
The sentence does not end there though, it's just that they ran out of ink so the sentence was not completed. It is because this sentence was not completed that if you GOOGLE 'fibonacci' you'll receive 4,670,000 search results. Having the sentence stop mid sentence at ' draw from high to low......' has left a gap for every enterpreneur to fill it. So anybody who has got an idea of what to do with fibonacci will sell it. And yes, like I mentioned at the start of our journey, all things work, it is up to you how you manage it into you r time and money.
Call me contrarian if you like, but I only draw fibs on certain highs and lows and those highs and lows work every time. You all know that on your charts if you right click you have the option to add period separators on. Ok, so once you have a period, that specifc period has a high and a low, now that is the high and low that I use. So I'll put my charts on a weekly tf, so that I have last years high and low, and I'll then use them. Same goes for daily tf, so using last months high to low ans lastly the 4hr tf, using last weeks high to low.
This means that you only have 3 sets of fibos on your chart. So you can easily colour code them for reference. And do not delete them once price has broken them. Leave then there till the next period start. I know that there are schools of thought that say ones the level has broken delete it, I say bollocks to that.
The levels I use are 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786 and 1. So when you go you fibo tool, delete all the levels that are 100 and more and add the .786 level, then you have to add more levels. So starting again at 0.236 but just put a 1 in front of it. So now you'll be 1.236, 1.382 etc etc, till you get to 2.0then 2.236 etc etc. You won't need to go higher than 2.0 for the daily and weekly chart. And most currencies on the 4hr chart either, but if you need to, then add more levels starting at 3.0 onwards.
Now that you have the retrace values in, you need to add the extension values, which just mirrors the retracement levels, so previously when you went 1.0 then 1.236 then 1.382, you'll just add a negative sign when you add the next values so you go -1.236, -1.382, -1.5 etc etc.
While doing that, in the values field of you fibo tool, leave 3 spaces and type in the following symbols %$ (percentage dollar), as this will let the tool automatically show the numerical value of the fibo line.
Ok trendlines, again hundreds of diff trendlines you can use. I connect the daily opens. So yesterdays open to todays open. Same as on the 4hr charts, connect the open of every new periods to the next.
I'm not gonna go into ma's as, I have discussed the 2 I use two gauge my trades for the day. There are obviuoulsy many impotant ma's, but play around and figure them out.
August bears fruits for labour
Now have a look at my charts. It is of EURYEN hourly then 15 min. The 15min is first, the 30 min 10smooth is orange and the hourly 13 smooth is idigo. I am able now to see where the fibo lines are much much clearer. I also have the trendlines up. The green being daily open connections and theyellow being weekly open connections.
What I am looking for is simple:
1) Trade when pirice breaks the 30 min 10 smooth.
2)Trade in direction of hourly stoch and preferbly the 15 min too
3) Trade when 15min macd and 5 macd cross zero line.
4) Trade when price breaks a trendline.
5)Trade when price breaks the 60 min 13smooth
Look at 15min you'll notice numbering. At numer:
1 - Price breaks the 10, but I see there is a trendline that could act as
so I wait to see what happens. I also notice that the hourly stoch is
turning down and is about to cross but not crossing yet.
2 - I have price break the trendline. The hourly stoch has crossed, macds
are all firing through zero line so I know wait to see what happens at the
as price could bounce. I put in a sell order 5 pips below the 13.
BUT BUT, because the 10 is above the 13, I am very weary as price
could reverse on me.
3 - My trade gets entered and I now aim for the fibs below.
4 - Price is back up at the trend lines so I look to trade the break of the
trendline, I have a spinning top reversal candle. And thanx to mladen,
I am able to see that the 5min & 15 min stochs are also ob.
The spinning top reversal also shows divergence when compared to
stochastics. Price made higher high and stoch lower high. AND, AND the
10 is below the 13 which means downtrend.
5 - So now I place a sell 5 pips below the trendline, watching stoch to see
it cross over and my target is the fib below.
So everyday same routine
Yes, everyday becomes the same routine, trading from fib to fib, or trendline to trendline. As long as my routine stays the same, I'll will learn price action.
As long as you have those fibs, those trendlines and those two ma, follow the stochs, then trades become easier.
This is the same EURYEN as in the pics above, but the 5min chart, with the 5min candle box on. Re-read post 979 on page 98, and you'll see and understand so much better now how it all falls into place.
And so ladies and gentleman we have reached our destination. Please ensure your trays are folded closed and locked, your seats are in an upright position and all loose belongings are stoed away in the baskets in front of you. I hope you had a pleasant journey, please do leave only valuable belongings behind.
By the By
I'LL NEVER CHANGE THIS SYSTEM
i assume it was part1
thank you Susan! Some food 4 thought!
ps. right, dont try to change system...just beat it
all indis Spirit mentioned you can find in this thread or posted altogether in "The Only Pivot" thread post 95 and on
Still cleaning up my charts
I woke up this morning and did something again, nothing major though. I have 3 sets of fibs on my charts yeah, so 3 sets of colours.
I mentioned that I connect the open of each period to the open of the next with trendlines. So what I did was make those trend line the same colour as the fibs I am using for that time frame. So on my daily TF my fibs are navy, so my trendlines connecting the period opens are navy My 4hr TF fibs are green so period connecting trendlines are green. So now on my 1hr TF I can connect every days open with the previous days say in yellow, it'll be easier for me to see, because of colour combinations, which trendline it is.But importantly, something I have never done before, is I label my trendlines now.
When you go the the trendline properties it has a descriptions tab, so I just put the start date to end date, so it makes it easier for me. Ok I'm done with this, I'll take questions if there are any now.
22 August morning setups
Here are two pics, Cable on left and EurYen on right. For simplicity I left out the indicators window as that is explained on page 98 post 979.
The vertical white line is 07:00 GMT. All the stochs and macds were showing north. Now which trade would you have taken?